1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Fed's hawkish October FOMC meeting and the unexpectedly strong US September non - farm payroll data, the expectation of a December rate cut dropped to 30%, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. With 200,000 tons of new production capacity put into operation in Xinjiang, supply increased slightly, while consumption weakened marginally. The supply - demand pattern was bearish, and aluminum prices were expected to correct, with attention on the 21,000 yuan support level [2][6]. - For cast aluminum, the start - up rate of aluminum alloy remained flat at 60.6% last week, with stable supply. Terminal consumption was resilient, and demand was stable. Although the exchange inventory increased slightly, the short - term adjustment of cast aluminum futures was mainly due to the decline in macro risk appetite, and the adjustment was expected to be limited due to stable supply - demand fundamentals and good cost support [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price dropped from 2,858.5 yuan/ton on 2025/11/14 to 2,808 yuan/ton on 2025/11/21, a decrease of 50.5 yuan/ton [3]. - SHFE aluminum continuous third contract price dropped from 21,845 dollars/ton to 21,385 dollars/ton, a decrease of 460 dollars/ton [3]. - The spot average price dropped from 21,726 yuan/ton to 21,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Review - In the electrolytic aluminum spot market, the weekly average price was 21,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212 yuan/ton from the previous week; the South China storage spot weekly average price was 21,386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a serious divergence among policymakers on rate cuts. The probability of a December rate cut was low according to swap contracts after the release of economic data [4][5]. - The start - up rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 62%, showing a structural differentiation. The start - up rate of aluminum cable was expected to continue a slight increase, while that of aluminum plate, strip, and foil was likely to decline gradually [5]. - On November 13, the social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat at 627,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 140,000 tons [5]. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 21,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 1.5% to 60.6%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,599 tons to 58,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, the electrolytic aluminum price was expected to correct due to the decline in market risk appetite and the bearish supply - demand pattern, with attention on the 21,000 yuan support level [6]. - The short - term adjustment of cast aluminum futures was mainly due to the decline in macro risk appetite, and the adjustment was expected to be limited due to stable supply - demand fundamentals and good cost support [6]. 3.4 Industry News - India's AM Green Group plans to invest about $6 billion in a green industrial complex in Andhra Pradesh, with about $49.6 billion for a 1 - million - ton green aluminum project in Kakinada, to be built in two phases [8]. - In October 2025, the domestic scrap aluminum import volume was about 155,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 19% [8]. - In October 2025, the domestic primary aluminum import volume was about 248,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. From January to October, the cumulative primary aluminum import volume was about 2.2108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.2% [11]. - On November 19, 2025, the first contract AD2511 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cast aluminum alloy futures was successfully delivered, with a delivery volume of about 22,900 tons and a delivery amount of about 476 million yuan. As of November 17, 2025, the cumulative trading volume was 596,400 lots, the total trading amount was 120.282 billion yuan, and the total standard warehouse receipt weight was 59,400 tons [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, last week, hawkish statements from Fed officials once suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but weak employment data may lead to changes in subsequent rate cut expectations. With the US government reopening and a large number of previously suspended economic data being released, market macro fluctuations have increased. Domestically, the operating capacity on the supply side is stable, the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased, and the ingot casting volume has increased. Overseas, due to power shortages, concerns about future supply persist. On the consumption side, the operating rate of aluminum processing increased slightly by 0.4% to 62% last week, with relatively strong consumption in the power and automotive sectors. However, it is difficult for the operating rate to continue rising during the peak-to-off-peak season transition. The weekly aluminum inventory remained flat at 627,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory increased slightly by 2,000 tons to 140,000 tons. Overall, with a large number of US economic data and high macro uncertainties, the position of Shanghai aluminum has slightly decreased, market risk appetite has declined, and domestic fundamental drivers are weak, so aluminum prices may be adjusted [4][9]. - For cast aluminum, the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly last week, with the weekly operating rate increasing by 1.5% to 60.6% according to SMM data. On the consumption side, procurement is more cautious, mainly for replenishing inventory based on rigid demand. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 11,000 tons to 58,000 tons. In the raw material market, the price of scrap aluminum has risen following the price of primary aluminum, and the refined-scrap price difference of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan increased by 18 yuan/ton to 1,819 yuan/ton within the week. The prices of copper and industrial silicon are at high levels, providing good cost support. On the market, cast aluminum followed the rise of Shanghai aluminum to reach a short-term high, but there was a reduction in positions at the high level, indicating cautious funds. Cast aluminum may be adjusted, but the cost support is strong, and the adjustment range is expected to be limited [4][10]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/11/7 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 months | 2862 | 2858.5 | -3.5 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 21630 | 21845 | 215.0 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai-London Aluminum Ratio | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | -12.91 | -28.05 | -15.1 | US dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 549225 | 552375 | 3150.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 63770 | 64742 | 972.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 21414 | 21726 | 312.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | -30 | -20 | 10.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 21284 | 21582 | 298.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai-Guangdong Price Difference | 130 | 144 | 14.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 62.7 | 62.7 | 0 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 15751.27 | 15718.21 | -33.1 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 5662.73 | 6007.79 | 345.1 | yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The weekly average price of aluminum ingot in the spot market was 21,726 yuan/ton, up 312 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of Southern Storage spot was 21,582 yuan/ton, up 298 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Macroeconomically, US President Trump signed a temporary federal government appropriation bill passed by both houses of Congress, ending the 43-day federal government shutdown. Fed's Kashkari said he did not support the Fed's last rate cut decision and had not decided on what action to take at the December policy meeting. According to ADP statistics, the average number of private sector jobs in the US decreased by 11,250 every two weeks in the four weeks ending October 25. The optimism of US small businesses hit a six-month low. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said he had told Trump that he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman if nominated. Hassett added that he hoped for a larger rate cut at the December policy meeting. Boston Fed President Collins, a voting member of the FOMC this year, said the threshold for further rate cuts in the short term was "relatively high." In the first ten months, China's total social financing increment accumulated to 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. At the end of October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month. The economic data in October was weak. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October decreased compared to September and was lower than the Wind consensus forecast. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales decreased for the fifth consecutive month, but due to a high base in the same period last year, the overall performance was better than the Wind consensus forecast. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased more significantly and was significantly weaker than the Wind consensus forecast [7]. - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, according to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 62% month-on-month, showing a structural differentiation trend. In the short term, the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry will show a differentiated trend. Grid orders will support the continued slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline gradually due to repeated environmental protection measures and the off-season. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, according to SMM, on November 13, the social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat at 627,000 tons compared to last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 21,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined-scrap price difference of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 1,819 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined-scrap price difference of Shanghai machine parts raw aluminum was 3,182 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 1.5% to 60.6% last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,599 tons compared to last Friday [8]. Market Outlook - Similar to the core view for electrolytic aluminum, with high macro uncertainties in the US and weak domestic fundamental drivers, aluminum prices may be adjusted [9]. - Similar to the core view for cast aluminum, cast aluminum may be adjusted, but the cost support is strong, and the adjustment range is expected to be limited [10]. Industry News - The 220kV substation HGIS equipment of the 350,000-ton green power aluminum project in Zhahaonaoer was successfully energized for the first time. Currently, the overall civil construction progress of the project has reached 90%, the main structure of the 220kV power distribution device has been completed, 200 cell shells have been installed, and the installation of other equipment is in progress. After the successful energization, the commissioning and operation of the electrolytic cell series, as well as the power, lighting, and control systems in each workshop and area, will be gradually powered on, providing preconditions for equipment single-unit commissioning and joint commissioning [11]. - The tax-included premium in the US Midwest reached a record high of 88.10 cents per pound (equivalent to $1,942 per ton) last Friday. Combined with the London Metal Exchange's benchmark price of $2,850 per ton, the actual price paid by US spot buyers has risen to $4,792 per ton. Since June, the premium has increased by more than 155% [12]. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum month-to-month spread, Shanghai-Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes [14][15][17][19][21][23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As continuously surging varieties adjusted intraday, market divergence may have started to emerge, and aluminum prices turned down from high levels. On the 23rd, SHFE aluminum 2509 fell 0.34% to 20,790, the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,190 to 691,200 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium remained flat at 25; the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 520. Alumina prices retreated from high levels, with a decline of 2.81%. The proportion of old - fashioned production capacity in the alumina industry is relatively low, and it may not benefit under current policies. Be vigilant against the callback risk after the sentiment fades. [8] - On the electrolytic aluminum side, it is still in the traditional off - season. The domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side remains sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector is still light during the off - season. With the high absolute price of aluminum, the negative feedback effect on terminal consumption is expected to appear again. In terms of profits, although the alumina futures price has soared, the spot price has followed up only limitedly. The average profit of aluminum smelting is still 4,100 yuan/ton, at a high level. [8] - In general, the supply and demand of aluminum tend to weaken in the off - season atmosphere. In the short term, it is supported by policy expectations and rises with the general increase of the sector, but the upside space is also temporarily difficult to open. Continue to pay attention to the performance of the resistance level near the previous high. [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices turned down from high levels. On the 23rd, SHFE aluminum 2509 fell 0.34% to 20,790, the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,190 to 691,200 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium remained flat at 25; the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 520. Alumina prices retreated from high levels, with a decline of 2.81%. [8] - The electrolytic aluminum market is in the off - season, with high operating capacity, sluggish demand, and light operating rate in the processing sector. The high price of aluminum may have a negative impact on terminal consumption. The average profit of aluminum smelting is 4,100 yuan/ton. [8] - The supply and demand of aluminum are weak in the off - season. It is supported by policy expectations in the short term, but the upside space is limited. Pay attention to the resistance level near the previous high. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, the domestic primary aluminum import volume was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic primary aluminum import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the domestic primary aluminum export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%; from January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, the domestic primary aluminum net import was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic primary aluminum net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. [9][10] - **Primary Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly. Due to the start of the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the original plant was required to reduce production and restart the new plant after passing the acceptance. The electrolytic aluminum production decreased slightly month - on - month. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the industry operating rate rebounded. [10] - **Guinea's Mining Policy**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced the revocation of the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. After verification by SMM, the revoked bauxite enterprises all have long - term idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mining rights were taken back by the state free of charge, and this action was part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management. [10] - **Restart of Alcoa's Spanish Smelter**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to be restarted by mid - 2026, and the postponement is expected to cause a loss of up to $110 million. Due to high electricity prices, the plant's production decreased in 2021. The restart plan was postponed due to a national power outage in Spain on April 28. After the power outage, the joint - venture company suspended the resumption of work until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and measures to prevent similar events. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint - venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant had been restarted. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026. [10]