消息面 据了解，2025年10月8日海外市场氧化铝以印尼FOB324.5美元/吨的价格成交3万吨，11月下旬船期。 融达期货： 目前氧化铝持续累库，期现价格双双下跌，基本面维持过剩格局，海外氧化铝市场成交活跃价格下跌， 价格震荡偏空，短期波动区间2850-3200。 中财期货： 当日氧化铝现货价格普跌，行业平均利润收窄，运行产能高位，进口窗口打开，供应过剩有所加剧；需 求端电解铝运行产能相对平稳；本周氧化铝社库继续上升，当日仓单增逾2700吨；基本面较差，高成本 区域产能亏损，关注价格继续下行对于该区域产能的影响，若无实质性产能下降或政策落地，盘面或仍 偏弱震荡。 据10月9日统计，国内氧化铝库存共计432.8万吨，较前一周增加11.6万吨。 据调研，2025年前九个月海外氧化铝累计产量4650万吨，同比增长3.06%。最新9月产量攀达524万吨， 同比增长6.66%，环比减少2.62%。 机构观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend with weak performance, influenced by supply and demand dynamics, and various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 15, the aluminum oxide futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 3236.0 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 3268.0 CNY and a low of 3160.0 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 2.12% [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates a weak performance for aluminum oxide, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply and limited demand growth [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that the aluminum oxide futures have turned into a discount, with continuous increases in warehouse receipts and an impending referendum in Guinea affecting supply, leading to an oversupply situation [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures highlighted a stalemate in the aluminum oxide market, with expectations of long-term capacity increases and short-term impacts from events affecting transportation and production [1] - Wukuang Futures pointed out ongoing disturbances in domestic and international ore supply, which may support ore prices, but the oversupply situation in aluminum oxide production remains challenging [1]