Market Overview - As of October 8, 2025, overseas alumina was traded at $324.5 per ton FOB Indonesia for a shipment of 30,000 tons scheduled for late November [1] - Domestic alumina inventory reached 4.328 million tons, an increase of 116,000 tons compared to the previous week [1] - Cumulative overseas alumina production for the first nine months of 2025 was 46.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.06% [1] - September production reached 5.24 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.66% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.62% [1] Institutional Insights - Rongda Futures noted that alumina inventory continues to accumulate, with both spot and futures prices declining, maintaining an oversupply situation [2] - The price trend is expected to remain bearish, with a short-term fluctuation range projected between 2850 and 3200 [2] Industry Analysis - Zhongcai Futures reported a general decline in spot alumina prices, with average industry profits narrowing and high operational capacity [3] - The opening of import windows has exacerbated the supply surplus, while the demand side for electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable [3] - The increase in social inventory of alumina continues, with warehouse receipts rising by over 2,700 tons on the day [3] - The fundamental outlook is weak, with high-cost regions facing losses, and attention is drawn to the impact of continued price declines on production capacity in these areas [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend with weak performance, influenced by supply and demand dynamics, and various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 15, the aluminum oxide futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 3236.0 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 3268.0 CNY and a low of 3160.0 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 2.12% [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates a weak performance for aluminum oxide, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply and limited demand growth [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that the aluminum oxide futures have turned into a discount, with continuous increases in warehouse receipts and an impending referendum in Guinea affecting supply, leading to an oversupply situation [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures highlighted a stalemate in the aluminum oxide market, with expectations of long-term capacity increases and short-term impacts from events affecting transportation and production [1] - Wukuang Futures pointed out ongoing disturbances in domestic and international ore supply, which may support ore prices, but the oversupply situation in aluminum oxide production remains challenging [1]