（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月11日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线下跌。沪铜跌4.46%，沪锡跌2.63%，氧化 铝跌2.47%，沪镍跌1.98%，沪铝跌1.59%，不锈钢跌1.48%，沪锌跌1.23%，沪铅跌0.09%。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月4日，LME金属期货收盘普遍上涨，LME期铜收涨225美元，报10716美元/吨。LME 期铝收涨17美元，报2710美元/吨。LME期锌收涨14美元，报3034美元/吨。LME期铅收跌4美元，报 2020美元/吨。LME期镍收涨116美元，报15433美元/吨。LME期锡收涨567美元，报37455美元/吨。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费坚挺，镍铁价格维稳，成本线坚挺，不锈钢 去库存放缓。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13962.5，基差1202.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：87148，-357，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2511：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘反弹，价格站上20均线，短期围绕20均线上下震荡。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，受台 风影响，矿山装船出船或有延迟。镍铁价格维稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈钢金九银十去 库存放缓。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月30日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨2.62%，沪铜涨1.96%，沪锌涨 1.22%，沪镍涨0.78%，沪铝涨0.31%，不锈钢涨0.20%，沪铅跌0.09%，氧化铝跌0.52%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on the night of September 26, with some metals experiencing price increases while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Zinc on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.39% [1] - Copper increased by 0.27% [1] - Aluminum saw a rise of 0.10% [1] - Lead experienced a slight increase of 0.09% [1] - Tin decreased by 0.01% [1] - Alumina fell by 0.27% [1] - Stainless steel dropped by 0.74% [1] - Nickel declined by 0.86% [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5742, up 0.88%. For the silicon ferroalloy, the macro - level sees the joint issuance of the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by relevant departments. Supply has increased after profit improvement, with neutral inventory and short - term cost support. The market has a lower tender price. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 24, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5916, up 0.44%. For manganese silicon, macro - level includes diplomatic activities. Fundamentally, production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. The iron - water demand has recovered. The market has a lower final pricing. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese Silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,916.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan; SF (Silicon Ferroalloy)主力合约收盘价 was 5,742.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 529,129.00 hands, down 9,301.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 369,202.00 hands, down 1,439.00 hands [2]. - Manganese silicon's top 20 net positions were - 69,893.00 hands, down 842.00 hands; Silicon ferroalloy's top 20 net positions were - 32,705.00 hands, down 680.00 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 102.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单 was 60,014.00 sheets, up 517.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 17,779.00 sheets, up 547.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In Inner Mongolia, the price of manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,720.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; in Guizhou, it was 5,750.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan. The manganese silicon index average was 5,717.00 yuan/ton, up 59.00 yuan [2]. - In Inner Mongolia, the price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SF主力合约基差 was - 262.00 yuan/ton, down 44.00 yuan; the SM主力合约基差 was - 196.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.70%; the silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 208,775.00 tons, down 5,355.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 113,100.00 tons, up 100.00 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 198,900.00 tons, up 32,100.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 63,390.00 tons, down 6,550.00 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426.00 tons, down 888.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.60 tons, down 148.80 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Guangdong issued an emergency notice on typhoon "Huajiaisha" prevention, implementing "five - stop" measures in key affected areas [2]. - US President Trump made statements on Russia - related issues, including tariff threats and NATO's response to Russian aircraft [2]. - Russia's energy ministry deputy said it might further restrict fuel exports and extended the gasoline export ban to the end of September, with possible extension to October [2]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongshang met with Ray Dalio, and they exchanged views on the international economic situation and financial market dynamics [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For silicon ferroalloy on September 24, the 2511 contract was at 5,742, up 0.88%. The macro - level has a steel industry plan. Supply has increased, inventory is neutral, and costs are supported. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The 9 - month Hebei Iron and Steel 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For manganese silicon on September 24, the 2601 contract was at 5,916, up 0.44%. The macro - level has diplomatic activities. Production has been rising, inventory has increased, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 9 - month silicon manganese final price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market for basic metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced mixed results during the night session on September 23, with some metals rising while others fell [1][2]. Group 2 - Stainless steel increased by 0.19% [1] - Zinc rose by 0.18% [1] - Lead saw a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - Copper experienced a minor decline of 0.02% [1] - Nickel decreased by 0.19% [1] - Aluminum fell by 0.26% [1] - Tin dropped by 0.28% [1] - Alumina saw a significant decrease of 0.95% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the real-time prices of various metals in the London Metal Exchange as of September 22, 20:30 [1] - Nickel increased by 0.04%, copper by 0.02%, and lead by 0.09% [1] - Zinc saw a significant rise of 1.11%, while aluminum experienced a decline of 0.73%, and tin increased by 0.24% [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The nickel price showed a strong trend last week, but spot trading remained sluggish. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. The cost line is firm, and inventory continued to decline. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,980 yuan, up 1,360 yuan from the previous day; the London nickel price was 15,380, up 160; the stainless steel main contract was 12,950 yuan, up 80 yuan [11]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan, up 1,400 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,000 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 122,050 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; nickel beans were 124,200 yuan, up 1,350 yuan. Cold - rolled coil prices in major regions remained unchanged [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 225,084 tons, an increase of 1,932 tons [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 96,949 tons, a decrease of 605 tons [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On September 12, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars/wet ton, and Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars/wet ton, both remaining unchanged. High - nickel ferronickel was 953.5 yuan/nickel point, and low - nickel ferronickel was 3,470 yuan/ton, also unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,157 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,563 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,882 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,836 yuan/ton [27]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and support from the cost line of 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on September 13, with various metals experiencing different percentage changes [1][2]. Group 2 - Lead futures increased by 1.03% [1] - Nickel futures rose by 0.68% [1] - Tin futures saw a gain of 0.48% [1] - Stainless steel futures climbed by 0.23% [1] - Aluminum futures grew by 0.21% [1] - Copper futures experienced a rise of 0.19% [1] - Zinc futures increased by 0.09% [1] - Alumina futures declined by 0.34% [1]