交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 11月24日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 服低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2512 | 22500 | 22390 | 22435 | 22260 | 22390 | 22345 | -110 | -155 | 55522 | 620411.08 | 430 ...

铂钯启航 绿动未来——广期所铂钯期货和期权"系列报道之二 为国内企业提供更为适配的风险管理工具 业内人士认为，期货价格具有透明性、连续性、公允性、权威性等特点，铂、钯期货上市后将成为现货 定价的"锚"，填补产业缺少风险管理工具的空白。 世界铂金投资协会亚太区总经理邓伟斌认为，铂、钯期货上市后，将在价格发现与套期保值等方面给 铂、钯市场带来多维度改变。比如，广期所铂、钯期货上市后，中国企业可以通过人民币计价结算和本 土交割体系，吸引国际参与者关注中国市场供需动态，这将逐步增强中国铂、钯市场的价格影响力。 "在交易规则上，广期所铂、钯期货契合国内现货市场特点，尤其是细化了交割标准，提升了实物交割 的可操作性，降低了产业客户参与门槛。这些制度可帮助加工企业、贸易商等在面对国际价格波动、汇 率变动以及供应链扰动时，更高效地进行套期保值，降低库存和原料成本的不确定性，稳定国内产业链 运行节奏。"中国黄金协会铂钯分会相关负责人表示，广期所铂、钯期货上市后，将强化中国与全球定 价体系的联动。随着境内交易量和价格影响力提升，广期所铂、钯价格有望成为亚洲乃至全球市场的重 近年来，受国际形势、国内回收产能、下游消费需求变化等多重 ...

北京时间11月24日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格延续区间震荡，今日开盘报10770美元/吨，现报 10798.5美元/吨，涨幅0.19%，盘中最高触及10804美元/吨，最低下探10765美元/吨。 LME铜期货行情回顾： 11月21日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10700.0 10798.5 10607.5 10778.0 0.86% 【铜市场消息速递】 11月21日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.02，进口盈亏：-489.97元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-488.26元/ 吨。 11月21日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单148400吨，注销仓单6625吨，减少2850吨。铜库存 155025吨，减少2900吨。 11月21日，上期所镍期货仓单33785吨，环比上个交易日减少294吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell due to demand concerns, with investors awaiting delayed U.S. economic data to assess the health of the global economy [1] Group 1: Copper Market - LME three-month copper dropped by 0.90% to $10,857 per ton, but has risen 1.31% for the week [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract for December closed down by 430 yuan or 0.49% at 86,900 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported stable economic performance in October, with ongoing transformation and growth of new economic drivers [1] - However, external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures pose challenges to stable economic operation [1] Group 3: Other Base Metals - Other base metals also experienced declines: - Shanghai aluminum for January fell by 0.68% to 21,840 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai lead for December decreased by 1.05% to 17,495 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai zinc dropped by 1.02% to 22,425 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai nickel fell by 1.48% to 117,080 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai tin decreased by 1.77% to 291,450 yuan per ton [1] - LME three-month aluminum fell by 1.45% to $2,854.50 per ton [2] - LME zinc dropped by 1.42% to $3,011.50 per ton [2] - LME lead decreased by 0.38% to $2,070 per ton [2] - LME nickel fell by 1.01% to $14,830 per ton [2] - LME tin decreased by 1% to $36,860 per ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has suspended all non-USD denominated metal options trading, which is seen as a move to reinforce the dominance of the USD in global commodity pricing and to counter the growing internationalization of the RMB [1][18]. Group 1 - The LME's official reason for the suspension is the low trading volume of non-USD contracts, which has led to higher maintenance costs than benefits [1]. - Despite the LME's claims, RMB-denominated metal futures trading has been significantly increasing, with daily trading volume for copper futures rising from over 300,000 contracts in 2024 to nearly 500,000 contracts in the first half of 2025, marking a nearly threefold increase over three years [1]. - The RMB's share in long-term metal transactions in regions like the Middle East and Africa has surpassed 30% [1]. Group 2 - The urgency from the U.S. to act against RMB internationalization stems from three main factors: the signing of RMB settlement agreements for iron ore with Australia, the successful issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds with a high subscription rate, and the upcoming shift in U.S. monetary policy towards quantitative easing [2][14]. - The issuance of U.S. sovereign bonds saw a subscription rate of 30 times the issuance amount, indicating strong international investor confidence [2][3]. Group 3 - The LME's actions are perceived as a direct challenge to the RMB's growing influence in global commodity pricing, aiming to reclaim USD's pricing power in key minerals [18]. - The potential emergence of two parallel pricing systems—one centered around the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the other around U.S. exchanges—could disrupt existing trade agreements, particularly those using RMB for settlement [20][21]. Group 4 - The U.S. strategy to limit RMB transactions could lead to a situation where countries like Australia reconsider their RMB settlement agreements if they become unprofitable due to rising USD-denominated prices [21][22]. - The ongoing "currency war" suggests that while the RMB may not immediately replace the USD, it will not be completely overshadowed by it either, leading to a more diversified global currency landscape [30]. Group 5 - The competition for pricing power will likely enhance the strategic position and valuation of related sectors in the A-share market, as more trading may shift to the Shanghai Futures Exchange [31]. - The focus on critical mineral supply chain security will increase attention on China's dominance in rare earths, presenting potential investment opportunities [32]. - The anticipated liquidity influx from U.S. monetary policy changes could alter market dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for investors [32].

Group 1 - LME copper futures rose by $31, closing at $10,827 per ton [1] - LME aluminum futures increased by $5, closing at $2,874 per ton [1] - LME zinc futures fell by $14, closing at $3,066 per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices declined from a high level, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of declining with reduced positions. The main contract price of Shanghai copper stabilized at around 85,000 yuan, and the decline in open interest also slowed down. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the market sentiment turned cold, and the strong US dollar index pressured copper prices. Additionally, LME copper was at a near - 5 - year high, leading to strong short - term profit - taking intentions among long - position holders. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, facing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to a sign of copper price stabilization and recovery. On the industrial level, as copper prices declined, downstream purchasing willingness recovered, and the spot premium strengthened. The domestic upstream electrolytic copper production has decreased significantly for two consecutive months. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - easing and supply contraction expectations may continue to support copper prices. In the short term, the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [5][54]. - **Aluminum**: With positive domestic macro - economic conditions and the resurgence of the "anti - involution" expectation, aluminum prices showed strong performance. Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising with increased positions. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. At the macro level, the domestic "anti - involution" expectation was strong, and the relatively strong varieties in the third quarter all strengthened again. Industrially, global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected that overseas electrolytic aluminum supply might be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors After the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of October, the overall US dollar index showed a strong performance, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. Last week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, showing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to the stabilization and recovery of copper prices. The trend of the US dollar index can be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai copper declined with reduced positions last week, and the main contract price stabilized at around 85,000 yuan. The decline in open interest also slowed down. The US dollar index and market sentiment affected copper prices, and there was a sign of price recovery in the second half of the week [5][54]. - **Copper Ore Shortage**: No specific shortage - related analysis was provided in the text, but only relevant data charts such as copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented [26]. - **Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling**: There were data on domestic and overseas electrolytic copper inventories, but no in - depth analysis of stockpiling was provided [28]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There was a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization, but no detailed analysis [32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Shanghai aluminum rose with increased positions last week, and the main contract price reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. The macro - economic situation and market expectations affected aluminum prices [6][54]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: There were data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, but no in - depth analysis [42][46]. - **Slowed Destocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: Global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected overseas supply to be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down [6][54]. - **Downstream Initial - stage**: There were data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, but no detailed analysis [48][50][53]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term and long - term trends of copper and aluminum prices, as well as the influencing factors from both macro and industrial levels [54].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on November 7, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Nickel increased by 0.22%, stainless steel rose by 0.16%, zinc went up by 0.15%, tin gained 0.11%, and aluminum saw a slight increase of 0.05% [1]. - In contrast, alumina decreased by 0.22%, lead fell by 0.23%, and copper dropped by 0.33% [1].

Core Viewpoint - The black metal futures market in China experienced a decline across all major products on November 5, with rebar futures dropping over 1% [1] Price Movements - As of November 5, the main futures prices are as follows: - Iron ore down 0.51% to 774.00 CNY/ton - Rebar down 1.21% to 3024.00 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled coil down 0.88% to 3252.00 CNY/ton - Stainless steel down 0.24% to 12540.00 CNY/ton [1] - Opening and closing prices for various contracts on November 5: - Rebar: Opened at 3046.00, closed at 3061.00 - Iron ore: Opened at 775.00, closed at 778.00 - Stainless steel: Opened at 12555.00, closed at 12570.00 - Hot-rolled coil: Opened at 3265.00, closed at 3281.00 [2] Warehouse Inventory Data - As of November 4, warehouse inventory data shows: - Rebar futures warehouse receipts at 121,242 tons, down 1,798 tons from the previous trading day - Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts at 100,301 tons, up 1,764 tons from the previous trading day - Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts at 73,300 tons, down 182 tons from the previous trading day - Manganese silicon futures receipts increased by 400 to 13,129 contracts - Silicon iron futures receipts increased by 1,335 to 9,159 contracts [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various products indicate the following: - Rebar: Spot price at 3162.66 CNY, futures price at 3061, basis at 101 with a basis rate of 3.19% - Hot-rolled coil: Spot price at 3346.67 CNY, futures price at 3281, basis at 65 with a basis rate of 1.94% - Stainless steel: Spot price at 12816.7 CNY, futures price at 12570, basis at 246 with a basis rate of 1.92% - Iron ore: Spot price at 801.89 CNY, futures price at 778, basis at 23 with a basis rate of 2.87% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on the night of November 1, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.61% [1] - Shanghai zinc increased by 0.47% [1] - Shanghai tin gained 0.44% [1] - Shanghai nickel saw a slight increase of 0.07% [1] - Shanghai copper decreased by 0.09% [1] - Shanghai lead fell by 0.26% [1] - Stainless steel dropped by 0.32% [1] - Aluminum oxide declined by 1.49% [1]