Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.31% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.45% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw a slight increase of 0.11%, whereas Shanghai zinc and lead experienced declines of 0.53% and 0.12% respectively [1] - Shanghai nickel decreased by 0.51%, but Shanghai tin had a significant rise of 5.65% [1] Group 2 - Alumina futures fell by 0.40%, while aluminum alloy prices increased by 0.31% [1] - Stainless steel futures rose by 0.28% in the night session [1]

截止收盘，伦铜报13259美元跌90.5美元，跌幅0.68%，伦铝报3141.5美元跌33美元，跌幅1.04%；伦锌 报3366.5美元跌20.5美元，跌幅0.61%；伦铅报1979美元跌16.5美元，跌幅0.83%；伦锡报543855美元涨 470美元，涨幅0.87%；伦镍报17730美元跌315美元，跌幅1.75%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网2月27日早讯：周四晚间LME金属期货普遍下跌，伦锡表现坚挺创下五连涨。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年3月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为6 | 8万吨 . | 环比有所减少4 ， | 22% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为6 | 7万吨 . ， | 环比增长11 | 67% 需求有 . . | | | | | | | | | 所抬升 . | 多晶硅库存为34 9万吨 . ， | 处于高位 | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片盈 ， | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent significant rise in the Shanghai tin futures contract, exceeding 7% in a single day, is primarily driven by long-term narratives rather than a substantial improvement in the current spot market fundamentals [3][10] - A breakthrough by a team from Peking University's School of Electronics in the field of ferroelectric transistors has led to the creation of the smallest and lowest power-consuming devices to date, providing critical technical support for overcoming the "memory wall" bottleneck in AI chips. This development injects new imagination into the long-term demand for tin as a "computing metal" [3][10] - As corporate financial reports for 2025 begin to be released, previous market concerns regarding an "AI bubble" have eased, and ongoing breakthroughs in the technology sector are supporting consumption expectations for tin in semiconductor solder and advanced packaging, providing emotional support for tin prices [3][10] Group 2 - From the spot market perspective, the current market is still in the early stages of post-holiday recovery, with a lack of trading activity persisting. Most downstream solder enterprises plan to resume operations between the 26th and 28th, with some delaying until after the Lantern Festival on March 3 [4][11] - Due to high tin prices before the holiday, downstream enterprises have a cautious outlook on post-holiday orders, leading to limited willingness to actively replenish inventory. This weak supply-demand situation suggests that the recent price increase is more of a technical correction rather than driven by strong recovery in spot demand [4][11] - A true market recovery is expected to occur only after downstream enterprises fully resume production, likely not until after the Lantern Festival, when spot market activity is anticipated to gradually recover [4][11] - Currently, downstream enterprises are advised to actively engage in buying hedging operations, especially with tin prices above 400,000 yuan per ton, which may require hedging for at least two weeks of usage [4][11]

国内金属 期货夜盘多数收涨。沪锡收涨2.02%，沪镍收涨1.65%，不锈钢收涨1.03%，国际铜收涨 0.32%，沪铜收涨0.25%，沪铅收涨0.12%，氧化铝收跌0.39%，铝合金收跌0.42%，沪铝收跌0.55%，沪 锌收跌0.67%。 ...

研 究 院 货 金 融 宏观消息影响，铜价震荡偏强 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 究 院 伊朗核谈判不断反复，仍有战争风险。美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税非法，但特朗普使用新的法律条文重新对全球 主要国家征收15%普遍关税。市场恐慌情绪上升，黄金白银大涨，带动有色金属全线走强。今日伦铜上涨，沪铜上涨，国 内现货铜价上涨。 期 货 金 融 研 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报101510，现货报101970，现货较期货升水460点。今日现货基差升水250点，今日现货成 交有所好转。LME现货贴水扩大至-84美元，外盘现货需求不足。本周美铜库存继续上升创新高，伦铜库存大幅上升，沪 铜库存上升，节前现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率大幅上涨，洋山铜溢价下降至33美元，春节前后国内现货需求不佳。 铜价伦沪比上升至7.83，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅下降至247点，外盘比价小幅高于内盘。 弘 业 今日伦铜大涨，在13100美元附近运行。沪铜大涨，收于101510，技术形态接近中性。沪铜成交下降持仓大幅上升， 节后市场情绪偏向乐观。现货方面，国内现 ...

Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.17% to $5050.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.98% to $77.180 per ounce [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.10%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. Notably, major tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia fell over 2% [3] Domestic Metal Market - The domestic metal market experienced a general decline before the Spring Festival, with significant drops in prices for tin and silver. Specifically, Shanghai gold futures fell by 1.61% to 1110.10 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures dropped by 5.52% to 19782 yuan per kilogram [4][6] - The decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to weakened market sentiment and risk appetite, exacerbated by a significant drop in U.S. stocks [6] Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. This data alleviated concerns about a deteriorating job market and reduced the perceived necessity for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the short term [7] - However, the total projected job growth for 2025 was revised down by 898,000, indicating that one month's data may not be sufficient to determine a trend reversal in the job market [7] Gold and Silver Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold and silver markets are currently in a "rebalancing" phase, with prices expected to remain volatile in the short term. However, long-term factors such as high global debt and geopolitical tensions are likely to support upward price movements for gold and silver [8] - The upcoming U.S. PCE and GDP data during the holiday period are anticipated to significantly influence market pricing for U.S. economic conditions and inflation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mostly lower during the night session on February 14, with significant declines in several metals [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Shanghai tin fell by 7.05% [1] - Shanghai nickel decreased by 3.66% [1] - Shanghai copper dropped by 2.24% [1] - Shanghai aluminum declined by 1.76% [1] - Shanghai zinc fell by 1.61% [1] - Stainless steel decreased by 1.53% [1] - Shanghai lead dropped by 0.33% [1] - Aluminum oxide increased by 0.60% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm data in the US has weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the holiday atmosphere is strong. The non - farm employment in the US in January increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Wall Street expects the first interest rate cut to be postponed to July. The copper market was affected by the strong US employment data, first rising and then falling. Trump plans to set up a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, which may give copper a further premium. The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, reaching the fastest growth rate since 2022 [3][12]. - The zinc market is in a state of consolidation. The domestic imported ore TC has slightly decreased, the upstream production reduction is limited, the downstream is on holiday with significantly lightened operations and longer holidays, and the spot inventory continues to increase with the possibility of further inventory accumulation [4]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a state of shock consolidation. The spot price of alumina has stabilized, and there are many restarts after capacity overhauls. The cost support of recycled aluminum alloy has weakened, and it is suppressed by the seasonal off - season and profit inversion, but there are still some factors providing bottom support [5]. - The tin market is in shock consolidation. The Shanghai tin follows the Shanghai nickel and shows a relatively strong trend, but the liquidity decreases before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in capital sentiment, as well as the situation of the ore end and macro - factors [6]. - The lead market is in a low - level shock rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The supply of primary lead has some overhauls, and the production suspension, holiday or overhauls of recycled lead have increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the spot inventory continues to rise [8]. - For the nickel and stainless - steel market, the Indonesian quota is confirmed, and the ore quota of Weda Bay nickel mine in Indonesia is cut by 70%. The cost of nickel products is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The stainless - steel market is in consolidation, and the reduction of the Indonesian quota may increase the cost of stainless - steel production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals as a whole are in shock, with a strong holiday atmosphere and net capital outflows. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran negotiation, still has uncertainties, and there may be fluctuations in the overseas bulk commodities during the holiday. The global major economies are actively deploying hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion. China's CPI and PPI in January showed certain changes, and the US non - farm data affected the market's expectation of interest rate cuts [12]. - **Investment Suggestions**: After a significant adjustment, the non - ferrous metals sector has repaired, and the trends are differentiated. It is advisable to go long on dips according to the strength of the fundamentals after the adjustment pressure is fully released, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. For different varieties: - **Copper**: The operation logic includes strong US employment data, Trump's plan for strategic reserves, and the macro - economic situation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The market is in stage consolidation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. For aluminum, the support range is 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 26,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton; for alumina, the support range is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton; for recycled aluminum alloy, the support range is 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 16,400 - 16,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Nickel**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 130,000 - 132,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 138,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Stainless - steel**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 102,330 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase, zinc at 24,650 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase, etc. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for different varieties such as lithium carbonate, nickel, tin, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 102,200 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 24,470 yuan/ton with no change, etc. [22] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Relevant charts about copper, such as exchange copper inventory changes, LME copper inventory, copper concentrate smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price, are provided [24]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc, including zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, zinc spot market prices, and galvanized sheet production seasonality, are presented [26][28]. - **Aluminum**: Charts about aluminum, such as the comparison between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum price, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum price, LME spot premium and discount trends, and Shanghai Non - ferrous aluminum premium and discount trends, are provided [30][31]. - **Alumina**: Charts related to alumina, including the spot price trend of alumina, alumina port inventory changes, etc., are presented [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Relevant charts are provided, but specific content is not detailed in the text [45]. - **Lead**: Charts about lead, such as lead concentrate 50% processing fee to the factory average price, domestic and foreign exchange lead futures inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premium and discount, and lead spot price, are presented [49][51]. - **Nickel**: Charts related to nickel, including Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium and discount, and LME nickel 0 - 3 premium and discount, are provided [53][55]. - **Stainless - steel**: Charts about stainless - steel, such as the number of stainless - steel warehouse receipts and stainless - steel spot price, are presented [57][59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Charts about copper arbitrage, such as the change of copper Shanghai - London ratio and the premium and discount between Shanghai copper and London copper, are provided [61]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc arbitrage, such as the change of zinc Shanghai - London ratio and LME zinc spot premium and discount, are presented [61]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Charts about aluminum and alumina arbitrage, such as aluminum basis and futures - spot price trend, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio trend, Shanghai aluminum continuous one - continuous three trend, and alumina continuous two - continuous one trend, are provided [64][66]. - **Tin**: Charts related to tin arbitrage, such as Shanghai tin basis trend, Shanghai tin continuous three - continuous price trend, and tin Shanghai - London ratio trend, are presented [68][70]. - **Lead**: Charts about lead arbitrage, such as the price difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead and lead Shanghai - London ratio, are provided [72]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: Charts related to nickel and stainless - steel arbitrage, such as nickel Shanghai - London ratio, nickel/stainless - steel ratio, Shanghai nickel inter - period spread, and nickel - nickel pig iron price difference, are presented [75][76]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Charts about copper options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are provided [78]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are presented [79][80]. - **Aluminum**: Charts about aluminum options, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume and open interest trend, and the ratio of call to put open interest trend, are provided [83][85].

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a widespread decline, with nickel and tin leading the drop, and copper reaching a one-week low [1] Group 1: Price Movements - London copper closed at $12,855.5, down $383.5, a decrease of 2.90% [1] - London aluminum closed at $3,097.5, down $19.5, a decrease of 0.63% [1] - London zinc closed at $3,381.5, down $36.5, a decrease of 1.07% [1] - London lead closed at $1,984, down $10.5, a decrease of 0.53% [1] - London tin closed at $47,800, down $2,265, a decrease of 4.52% [1] - London nickel closed at $17,250, down $815, a decrease of 4.51% [1]