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长江期货鲜果周报:震荡回落-20250905
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-05 06:35
Report Title - The title of the report is "Yangtze River Futures Fresh Fruit Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - The report date is September 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view of apples is that with the approaching of new fruit listing, there is some pressure on apple prices in the future market, and they may show a trend of weak upward movement and volatile adjustment [9] - The overall view of red dates is that with the expectation of new fruit listing, the price of red dates will mainly fluctuate and adjust in the near future [45] Summary by Directory Apple Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the ground trading of early-maturing Gala apples basically ended, and a small amount of cold-storage goods continued to be out of storage. Early-maturing Fuji apples are waiting for coloring. Due to continuous rainfall in Shaanxi, the supply of red apples is difficult to increase. In Shandong, the impact of early-maturing fruits on inventory goods has slowed down, and the sales have improved slightly. With the approaching of new fruit listing, there is pressure on apple prices in the future market [9] 2. Market Review - This week, the main apple futures contract fluctuated weakly. The apple basis was 298 yuan, an increase of 58 yuan compared with last week [13] 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of August 29, 2025, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.54 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg compared with last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been fluctuating [16] 4. Apple Main Producing Areas Situation - In Shandong, the prices of different grades of apples are different. The trading of early-maturing varieties is mainly about Cream Red General. In Shaanxi, the prices of early-maturing Fuji apples in different regions also vary [21] 5. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of September 3, 2025, the apple cold-storage inventory in the main producing areas across the country was 273,500 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons compared with last week. The inventory sales speed has accelerated slightly [23] 6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Chalong market has increased slightly. The sales of early-maturing varieties are okay, but the profit of merchants is average, and the terminal sales speed is not fast [29] 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first and second-grade apples in Qixia was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as last week [32] 8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 36th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.99 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg compared with the 35th week. The prices of different fruits have different changes [37] Red Date Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the temperature in the main producing areas of Xinjiang grey dates is between 14°C - 30°C, and the jujube trees have entered the sugar-accumulating period. The supply in the sales area market has decreased, and the price has first risen and then fallen. With the expectation of new fruit listing, the price of red dates will mainly fluctuate and adjust in the near future [45] 2. Market Review - The situation of Xinjiang grey dates is similar to the weekly viewpoint, with the jujube trees in the sugar-accumulating period, and the price in the sales area market first rising and then falling [48] 3. Spot Price Trend - The spot prices of red dates in different markets (Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong) have different trends. In some markets, the price has changed, and in others, it has remained stable [53] 4. Inventory Data - According to the survey data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,410 tons, a decrease of 46 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 0.49% month-on-month and an increase of 76.45% year-on-year. The market is in a complex state [55] 5. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average purchase price of grey dates in the main producing areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first-grade finished products in the Hebei sales area market is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The gross profit is equivalent to 2.51 yuan/kg [58]