平安证券则表示，2025年水泥行业景气度走弱、价格前高后低，1-10月水泥产量累计同比下滑6.7%。展 望2026年，考虑当前企业盈利微弱、限制超产后行业供需关系或改善，预计水泥盈利较2025H2小幅改 善，若严格限制日度超产、水泥旺季提价或更顺畅，同时关注行业整合进展。 水泥股午后跌幅扩大，截至发稿，中国建材(03323)跌4.62%，报4.96港元；海螺水泥（600585）(00914) 跌3.46%，报22.88港元；西部水泥(02233)跌3.26%，报2.97港元；华润建材科技(01313)跌1.89%，报1.56 港元。 东吴证券发布研报称，11月下旬，南方地区水泥需求继续微幅回升，但北方地区受降温天气影响，需求 持续减弱，导致全国重点地区水泥企业出货率环比下降约0.5个百分点。价格方面，由于前期多个省份 涨价未能企稳，部分地区价格出现回调，带动整体市场价格震荡下行。鉴于南方地区水泥企业仍有继续 推涨意愿，我们预计后期水泥价格将维持震荡调整走势。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region have not yet started to rise due to recent typhoons and heavy rainfall, which have led to low cement shipment volumes [2] - Since May, the cement prices in the Pearl River Delta have been on a downward trend, with some varieties' ex-factory prices approaching the cost line, suggesting limited potential for further declines [2] - As September approaches, which is typically a peak sales season, there is an expectation that cement prices will stabilize and potentially rebound [2]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the cement industry experienced a seasonal downturn, with reduced demand due to high temperatures and rainfall affecting downstream construction activities, leading to an increase in kiln stoppage rates and rising clinker inventory, resulting in significant supply-demand imbalances and declining cement prices. However, demand is expected to gradually recover in late August, potentially stabilizing and increasing cement prices [1]. Industry Summary - July was characterized as a seasonal off-peak period for the cement industry, with decreased demand impacting overall performance [1] - High temperatures and rainfall negatively influenced downstream construction activities, contributing to reduced cement demand [1] - The national clinker kiln stoppage rate increased, indicating a slowdown in production [1] - Clinker inventory continued to grow, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts within the industry [1] - Cement prices showed a downward trend across the board due to these factors [1] - Looking ahead, demand is anticipated to gradually rebound in late August, which may lead to a stabilization and potential increase in cement prices [1]

Group 1 - Cement stocks collectively declined, with China National Building Material down 4.71% to HKD 4.65, Jinju Group down 4.71% to HKD 0.81, Anhui Conch Cement down 4.03% to HKD 22.6, and Huaxin Cement down 2.12% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The national cement price index reported at 319.64 points on July 25, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.30% [1] - The national cement market continued to show weakness, with significant regional disparities; North China faced weak price increases, while Northeast China struggled with soft demand [1] Group 2 - Short-term outlook indicates that due to the off-season, cement prices are slightly declining, but the downward space is limited; prices are expected to rise in August as demand enters the peak season [2] - UBS noted that despite high market sentiment, the Yajiang hydropower project is a long-term plan with limited immediate impact on company profits; assuming cement orders are distributed by market share and a gross profit of RMB 150 per ton, Tibet Tianlu is expected to achieve an annual profit of approximately RMB 160 million, compared to a loss of RMB 104 million in 2024 [2] - Net profit growth estimates for Huaxin Cement, China National Building Material, and Anhui Conch Cement are approximately 5%, 2%, and 0.4% respectively [2]

Group 1 - Cement stocks collectively declined, with China National Building Material down 4.71% to HKD 4.65, Jinju Group down 4.71% to HKD 0.81, Conch Cement down 4.03% to HKD 22.6, and Huaxin Cement down 2.12% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The national cement price index reported at 319.64 points on July 25, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.30% [1] - The national cement market continued to show weakness, with significant regional disparities; North China faced weak price support, Northeast China struggled with soft demand, and East China saw price increase plans shelved due to adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that while some regions are experiencing slight price declines due to the off-season, the downward space is limited, and prices are expected to rise in August as demand enters the peak season [2] - UBS indicated that despite high market sentiment, the Yajiang hydropower project has limited impact on the company's profitability; assuming cement orders are distributed by market share and a gross profit of RMB 150 per ton, Tibet Tianlu is expected to achieve an annual profit of approximately RMB 160 million, compared to a loss of RMB 104 million in 2024 [2] - Net profit growth estimates for Huaxin Cement, China National Building Material, and Conch Cement are approximately 5%, 2%, and 0.4% respectively [2]