Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement demand is expected to decline by 5%-8% in 2026, potentially falling to 1.6-1.62 billion tons, primarily due to a decrease in new real estate projects, changes in infrastructure investment structure, and declining rural market demand [1][5] - The profitability of the cement industry in 2026 is uncertain and will depend on the implementation of overproduction control policies [1][6] Key Insights - As of December 2, 2025, 108 million tons of clinker capacity have been publicly announced for exit, with expectations to reach 120-130 million tons by year-end, mainly from large production lines [1][8] - In the first half of 2026, market chaos may occur, but stability in profits is anticipated in the second half through industry self-discipline and staggered production [1][7] - The East China region has seen a price increase of approximately 10-15 yuan due to rising coal costs, with leading companies' gross profit per ton recovering to around 50 yuan [1][9] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Cement production in the first ten months of the year has decreased by 6.9% year-on-year, with October's production down nearly 16% [2] - The overall demand for cement in 2025 is expected to be slightly below 1.7 billion tons [2] - The execution of staggered production plans varies significantly across regions, with some areas experiencing a shutdown rate of around 50% [3][15] Price Trends - Despite several rounds of price increases in Q4, the actual implementation has been limited, with average price increases in the Southwest region of 30-40 yuan [4] - A price drop of 20-30 yuan is expected in Q1 2026 due to seasonal adjustments, with leading companies' gross profit per ton nearing 40 yuan, indicating a potential bottom level [10] Regulatory Environment - The overproduction control policy will officially be implemented in 2026, but its effectiveness is uncertain due to varying enforcement across regions [11] - Environmental inspections will include checks on whether cement companies exceed production limits, but strict penalties are currently lacking [17][18] Capacity Utilization and Production Management - Actual clinker capacity is estimated at 2.2 billion tons, with an overproduction ratio of 20%-40% [3][19] - The capacity utilization rate is expected to improve slightly in 2026, despite a decrease in total production volume [13] Future Outlook - The demand forecast for 2026 indicates a continued downward trend, with significant uncertainty and potential market volatility [12] - The industry may see a marginal recovery in capacity utilization, but achieving the target of a 15% increase in clinker capacity utilization remains challenging [14] Conclusion - The cement industry faces significant challenges in 2026, including declining demand, regulatory uncertainties, and fluctuating prices. The effectiveness of overproduction control measures and environmental regulations will be critical in shaping the industry's future profitability and stability.

摘要 多地水泥价格上涨，市场基本面表现如何？20250921 9 月全国水泥市场普遍推涨，但实际涨幅有限，多在 10-40 元/吨，仅云 南和陕西分别通知上涨 100 元/吨和 70 元/吨，显示市场行情处于启动 阶段，涨价落实受下游搅拌站抵制影响。 基建项目对水泥需求及定价影响显著，项目通常跟随网价调整，阻力较 小，成为推动整体水泥市场的重要因素，尤其是在大型铁路、水电等项 目加速推进时。 水泥企业通过错峰停窑（如华东地区苏浙沪皖统一停产 12 天）、执行 日产限制以及进行产能置换来应对市场环境中的挑战，以应对供需变化 和控制产量。 2025 年上半年基建项目资金情况有所好转，预计下半年将逐渐落地并 开工建设，大型工程将在 10 月至 11 月集中使用大量水泥，厂家积极推 涨信息价，以提高基建项目结算价格。 水泥行业面临产能过剩问题，导致价格战频繁，部分地区水泥价格跌破 成本线。企业加大停窑力度，并执行日产不超过 110%的规定，同时探 索产能置换。 Q&A 近期水泥市场的运行情况如何？有哪些值得关注的变化趋势和亮点？ 近期水泥市场出现了价格波动，主要集中在 9 月份。华东地区如福建和浙江因 错峰停窑，价格 ...

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry experienced a 4.3% year-on-year decline in cumulative production in the first half of the year, with a 5.3% decline in June alone, indicating weak demand [1][2] - A seasonal improvement in market demand is expected around mid-August, but the extent of this improvement will depend on the impact of high temperatures [1][2] Key Points on Price Trends - The decline in cement prices in Q2 was primarily due to insufficient supply reduction and relaxed peak-shifting production in some regions, leading to market share competition among companies [1][3] - In the East China, Central South, and Southwest regions, a peak-shifting completion rate of over 90% is necessary to stabilize and increase prices [1][3] - A first round of price rebound is anticipated in core markets like the Yangtze River Delta around mid-August, contingent on the execution of peak-shifting production [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply reduction in Q2 was inadequate, contributing to the price decline, with many core regions failing to execute peak-shifting production effectively [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) reported that approved cement capacity is 1.6 billion tons, designed capacity is 1.8 billion tons, and actual capacity is approximately 2.2 billion tons [1][7] Industry Self-Regulation and Capacity Management - Short-term price recovery efforts are focused on industry self-discipline and peak-shifting production, but the progress in eliminating excess capacity has been slow, with only 40 million tons expected to be eliminated this year, far below the annual target of 100 million tons [4][6] - The China Cement Association has called for timely reporting of actual production capacity data to accelerate the elimination of excess capacity [4][6] Future Price Predictions - The cement price in the Yangtze River Delta and other core markets is expected to rebound in August due to improved demand, although the success of price increases will depend on the execution of peak-shifting production [5][29] - The southern market is still at a low point and will need to self-regulate before attempting to raise prices again [5] Regulatory and Monitoring Framework - The future focus of excess capacity governance includes short-term self-regulation and long-term structural reforms, with a call for timely reporting of actual production capacity [6][9] - Key deadlines for excess capacity governance include completing the reporting of actual and supplementary capacity by the end of 2025, with monitoring systems expected to be operational by 2026 [8][9] Regional Market Insights - The cement market in Xinjiang is stable with strong profitability, while the market in Shaanxi is currently declining but expected to rebound in August [22][25] - The production capacity utilization in Yunnan and Guizhou is low, around 30%, making them less attractive for acquisitions compared to Xinjiang [26] Conclusion - The cement industry is facing challenges with excess capacity and price volatility, but there are signs of potential recovery in demand and prices in the coming months. The effectiveness of regulatory measures and industry self-discipline will be crucial in stabilizing the market and improving profitability [1][5][6]