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樊纲:经济长期以来的问题是消费需求不足,完善社保机制有助于提振消费 | 2025博鳌房地产论坛
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-08-13 18:53
Group 1 - The core issue of the Chinese economy is insufficient consumer demand, which has been a long-standing problem [2][3] - Consumer demand is measured not just by numbers but by its proportion in GDP, with China's consumer spending at 40% compared to 80% in the US and 60-70% in other developing countries [3] - Recent government initiatives to boost consumption include policies for home appliance upgrades and personal consumption loan subsidies [4][8] Group 2 - Income, particularly wage income, is a key determinant of consumption, and tax policies significantly influence disposable income [5] - The improvement of the social security system is crucial for increasing consumption, as it affects savings and consumption rates [5] - The wealth effect plays a significant role in consumer behavior, with declining real estate prices leading to reduced consumption [6] Group 3 - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on enhancing consumer confidence and balancing savings and consumption rates [7] - Future growth in consumption is expected to come from service sectors such as healthcare, entertainment, and tourism, as physical goods consumption faces overcapacity [7] - The government is prioritizing demand-side subsidies to create a healthy economic cycle, rather than directly subsidizing supply-side production [8]