顶端新闻记者 聂辉 12月27日，在"三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"上，第十四届全国政协委员、中国发展 研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩，从宏观政策与制度安排的角度阐述扩大内需 的战略基点地位。 张军扩表示，"十五五"充分有效释放居民消费需求潜力，要不断优化商品性消费的支持范围和结构，并 以更大力度支持服务性消费，特别是要按照投资于人的要求，针对群众急难愁盼的教育、医疗、养老、 生育等方面问题，通过加大补贴力度，提振消费意愿，增强消费能力。此外，要切实有效实施居民收入 增长计划，并以较大力度提高低收入人群的社会保障和公共服务水平，有效提升我国居民的安全保障预 期和消费信心。 在当前阶段，虽然需要消费需求在拉动经济增长中发挥更大作用，张军扩强调，这并不意味着投资不重 要了，更不意味着可以放松扩大有效投资的努力。充分释放消费潜力和着力扩大有效投资应当并重，实 第十四届全国政协委员、中国发展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩。主办方供 图 现良性互动。 需求问题成为影响我国经济持续稳定增长的最具决定性的因素，扩大内需连续两年位列经济工作之首。 张军扩表示，今年以来，我 ...

最近和几个做生意的朋友聊天，他们都在吐槽生意越来越难做。一个开服装店的朋友说，去年一整年的利润还不如前年一个月赚的钱。另一个搞装修的老板 更直接，他跟我说"2025年比2024年难，2024年又比2023年难，这个趋势很清楚"。咱们面对的现实是什么呢？就是有14亿人口的消费市场，好像突然就变得 很难激活，很难从这个大蛋糕里分到属于自己的那一块。 这就直接影响到了做生意的成功率。成功的企业需要各种条件的配合，包括好的位置、合适的员工、足够的资金储备、有竞争力的产品或服务。但当人力成 本和房租成本这两个基础成本都那么高的时候，再加上消费需求不足，这个成功的概率就在大幅下降。有调查显示，中小企业的平均生命周期在5年左右， 而在2024到2025年这个阶段，新创企业的倒闭速度在明显加快。原因就是成本高企而收入增长乏力。 先说第一个问题，行业基础成本在持续攀升。咱们不管做什么生意，首先要面对的就是这个门槛。每一个行业都有它的基础成本，不论你经营得多好，这些 基础成本都是逃不开的。2025年这个成本在明显上升。 生产资料的价格在波动，物流成本在增加，各种行政成本也在上升。就拿一个小餐厅来说，原材料进价在涨，能源成本在涨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the necessity of regulating industrial policies and controlling local governments' enthusiasm for industrial investment while emphasizing the need for further efforts to stimulate consumption [3][22]. Group 1: PPI Trends - Since October 2022, China's PPI has entered a continuous negative growth phase, experiencing 34 months of decline, which has pressured industrial profits and suppressed consumer spending [3][4]. - The current PPI negative growth is compared to a previous cycle from March 2012 to August 2016, which lasted 54 months, highlighting similarities in duration and abrupt declines [4][5]. - The current PPI decline is driven by two main factors: overcapacity in industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries due to rapid demand growth, and significant adjustments in the real estate market since the second half of 2021 [5][6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Both rounds of PPI decline are characterized by rapid capacity expansion exceeding demand growth, leading to oversupply, but the causes of demand insufficiency differ [6][11]. - The current round of PPI decline has seen a more significant impact from weak consumer demand, particularly in the context of the real estate market's deep adjustments, which have led to substantial wealth evaporation for residents [6][12]. Group 3: Industry Contributions to PPI Decline - The mining and upstream raw materials sectors contributed significantly to PPI declines in both periods, but their contribution decreased from 85.2% to 61.7% in the current cycle [11]. - The midstream manufacturing sector's contribution to PPI decline increased to 9.0% due to the overcapacity in the new energy sector, while the downstream manufacturing sector's contribution rose to 26.0%, particularly from essential consumer goods [11][12]. Group 4: Consumer Demand Analysis - The current cycle's core CPI has averaged around 0.3%, significantly lower than the previous cycle's average of 2.1%, indicating a substantial drop in consumer demand [13][14]. - Factors contributing to weak consumer demand include declining disposable income growth, increased savings tendencies, and unstable income expectations, leading to reduced consumption even with unchanged income levels [17][19]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To reverse the PPI negative growth, stronger counter-cyclical adjustment policies are needed, including lowering policy interest rates and expanding public investment [21][23]. - Enhancing consumer confidence through effective policies can lead to increased consumption, which is crucial for reversing the downward trend in downstream manufacturing prices and ultimately improving PPI [23][24].

Group 1 - The core issue of the Chinese economy is insufficient consumer demand, which has been a long-standing problem [2][3] - Consumer demand is measured not just by numbers but by its proportion in GDP, with China's consumer spending at 40% compared to 80% in the US and 60-70% in other developing countries [3] - Recent government initiatives to boost consumption include policies for home appliance upgrades and personal consumption loan subsidies [4][8] Group 2 - Income, particularly wage income, is a key determinant of consumption, and tax policies significantly influence disposable income [5] - The improvement of the social security system is crucial for increasing consumption, as it affects savings and consumption rates [5] - The wealth effect plays a significant role in consumer behavior, with declining real estate prices leading to reduced consumption [6] Group 3 - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on enhancing consumer confidence and balancing savings and consumption rates [7] - Future growth in consumption is expected to come from service sectors such as healthcare, entertainment, and tourism, as physical goods consumption faces overcapacity [7] - The government is prioritizing demand-side subsidies to create a healthy economic cycle, rather than directly subsidizing supply-side production [8]

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing issue of insufficient consumer demand in China's economy needs to be addressed to stimulate economic growth and enhance overall economic vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Challenges - Insufficient consumer demand is identified as a significant challenge, with consumer spending accounting for only 40% of GDP in China, compared to 80% in the U.S. and 60-70% in other developing countries [2]. - Investment demand is also low due to market overcapacity and pessimistic expectations, contributing to the overall economic stagnation [2]. - The government has implemented various measures to boost consumption, including "old-for-new" policies for home appliances and the issuance of consumption vouchers [2]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - Recent fiscal policies aim to enhance consumer demand and improve living standards, with a focus on both demand and supply sides [3]. - The Ministry of Finance is collaborating with relevant departments to implement these policies effectively, ensuring a positive cycle between supply and demand [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Consumption - Income, particularly wage income, is a critical determinant of consumption, with tax levels directly impacting disposable income [4]. - The social security mechanism plays a vital role in influencing consumption rates, as changes in social security can significantly affect savings and spending behavior [4]. - The concept of permanent income suggests that consumers are more likely to spend if they perceive a stable and ongoing income stream [4]. Group 4: Wealth Effect and Future Consumption Trends - The current decline in real estate prices has led to a reduction in perceived wealth, negatively impacting consumer spending [5]. - Future growth in consumption is expected to shift towards service-oriented sectors, including healthcare, entertainment, and tourism, as physical goods face overcapacity [7]. - The government is focusing on demand-side subsidies to stimulate consumption rather than directly supporting supply-side growth [8].

Core Insights - The core argument presented by Fan Gang emphasizes the long-standing issue of insufficient consumer demand in China's economy, particularly highlighted by the disparity in consumption as a percentage of GDP compared to other countries [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Demand - Fan Gang indicates that consumer spending constitutes approximately 40% of China's GDP, significantly lower than the United States at 80% and other developing countries like India at 60-70% [1]. - The current economic policies have predominantly focused on supply-side reforms, which have roots in historical contexts of scarcity and low productivity [1]. Group 2: Social Security and Consumption - The improvement of the social security system is identified as a crucial factor that could enhance consumer spending, addressing issues related to wealth disparity and social stability [2].

Core Insights - The main issue in the Chinese economy is insufficient consumer demand, which becomes more pronounced as production capacity rapidly increases [1][2] - The proportion of consumption in GDP is significantly lower in China compared to other countries, with consumer spending accounting for only 40% of GDP, while in the US it is around 80% and in other developing countries like India it ranges from 60% to 70% [1] - There has been a historical emphasis on supply-side reforms in macroeconomic policy, focusing on enhancing productivity, which stems from past experiences of shortages and low productivity [1] Demand-Side Reform - There is a call for a shift towards demand-side reforms, with a particular emphasis on improving the social security system to boost consumption [2] - The social security system is seen as crucial for addressing income inequality and ensuring social stability, which in turn can lead to significant changes in consumer spending [2]