永续品种利差挖掘
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产业债投资策略:景气分化但估值趋同,产业债如何挖掘?
Orient Securities· 2025-11-24 01:46
Group 1: Investment Strategy for Industrial Bonds - The report emphasizes that the coupon strategy is superior to the duration strategy, with a focus on identifying yield enhancement opportunities [3][13] - It suggests that within the 2Y-1Y range, riding the yield curve can effectively balance risk and return, as the yield spread for industrial bonds is generally greater than that of local government bonds [19][15] - The report highlights that the yield spread for perpetual bonds is limited, but certain bonds with thicker spreads within 3Y can provide value for allocation [8][19] Group 2: Industry Analysis - In the construction sector, the report notes that the industry is facing increasing competition, with a lack of fundamental support for valuation, leading to continued volatility [8][19] - The steel industry is experiencing weak demand and cost pressures, with a focus on winter storage as a potential short-term strategy [8][19] - In the coal sector, supply constraints and expectations of a cold winter are expected to support coal prices, with a focus on high-valuation companies like Jinneng Group [8][19] - The real estate market anticipates increased policy support in Q4, with state-owned enterprises showing significant absolute returns [8][19] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report indicates that the copper price is expected to rise due to ongoing supply adjustments, while aluminum prices are projected to remain stable [8][19] - The cement industry is facing supply-demand imbalances, with limited opportunities for investment due to low yield spreads [8][19] - Overall, the report concludes that the value of digging deeper into industrial bonds is limited, and maintaining a conventional allocation strategy is advisable [8][19]