期限利差挖掘

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信用债市场周观察:短端中高等级信用债依然是首选
Orient Securities· 2025-09-15 09:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds remain the top choice, and the idea of excavating based on the issuer's yield curve should be continued. In the current environment, the market pursues certainty and low volatility, so short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds are preferred for the pure - bond part. It is recommended to look for riding opportunities in the steep part of the curve or "convex points" of individual bonds when gradually moving towards the medium - and long - term [5][8]. - There are issuers with relatively large term spreads among those with an implied rating of AA+ or above. After the trading concentration in the 1 - 2Y segment further increases, the 2 - 3Y term spread may be repaired, which is suitable for institutions with strong liability - side stability to layout in advance. For issuers with an implied AA rating, there is also room for excavation, and investors can sink according to their needs [5][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - The short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds are still the best option. Last week, the bond market sentiment was fragile, affected by the stock market sentiment and negative news such as fund fee adjustment and tax exemption cancellation. The short - term of credit bonds also adjusted last week, but the adjustment was limited due to the short duration, and the 2 - 3Y medium - term adjusted more, causing the 3Y - 1Y term spread to widen [5][8]. - For specific excavation, among issuers with an implied AA+ rating or above, the 2Y - 1Y term spread is mostly around 10 - 15bp, and the 3Y - 2Y is concentrated in the range of 15 - 20bp. For issuers with an implied AA rating, the 2Y - 1Y term spread of 20 - 30bp is relatively high, and 15 - 20bp has relatively large excavation space [5][10][12]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, issuer rating or outlook downgrades, or bond rating downgrades this week. However, some overseas ratings were adjusted. For example, Fitch downgraded the long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating and senior unsecured rating of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited from "A" to "A - ", and Moody's downgraded the long - term credit rating of Sinochem Hong Kong (Group) Limited from A3 to Baa1 [15][16]. - There were several major negative events, including some real - estate companies facing litigation, being restricted from high - end consumption, and failing to repay debts on time [17]. 3.2.2 Primary Market Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds doubled week - on - week, the maturity volume was roughly the same, and the market returned to net financing. The primary issuance cost of medium - to high - grade new bonds was basically flat week - on - week. Six credit bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance, with a total scale of 290 million yuan [17][18][20]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Trading - The valuations of credit bonds across all grades and terms were adjusted again, with the central adjustment range around 5bp. Credit spreads were mostly flat, and some medium - and long - term spreads were passively narrowed. The 3Y - 1Y term spread of medium - to high - grade bonds widened, while most other spreads narrowed. The AA - AAA grade spread fluctuated slightly, with the 5Y spread widening by up to 3bp [22][24]. - In terms of credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads of urban investment bonds fluctuated within ±1bp, with medium - to high - valuation regions tending to narrow. Most industry spreads of industrial bonds were flat, and the steel industry spread narrowed by up to 3bp week - on - week [26][28]. - The liquidity of credit bonds further declined, and the turnover rate increased by 0.04 percentage points to 1.53%. The issuers of bonds with the top - widening spreads were mostly real - estate companies, and the valuation of private construction company Xinjie Investment also increased significantly [5][32].