Q&A 大金重工 20250708 摘要 2025 年上半年，公司海外业务实现突破性增长，主要得益于海外项目 交付量的大幅增加以及出口产品采用 DAP 交付模式，有效提升了整体盈 利水平。 国际形势变化导致外汇市场波动，特别是欧元和美元汇率变化，对公司 以欧元结算的对外业务产生积极影响，增加了汇兑收益。 二季度，公司在海外单桩、海塔及陆塔的发运量均环比增长，其中 TPLS 单桩保持高收益，WAK 单桩利润有所提升，海工装备成为利润增长的主 要贡献者。 下半年海外订单交付节奏预计优于上半年，发运总量将超过上半年，盈 利水平保持稳定，但确收节奏受航运时间影响。 2025 年初至今，公司在欧洲单桩和海塔订单方面表现出色，签单量排 名市场第一，并积极参与英国 AR7 项目扩容和德国第二轮拍卖。 截至目前，公司累计订单接近 50 万吨，计划 2025 年交付 15-20 万吨， 2026 年交付 20 万吨，且 2026 年订单盈利能力乐观，尤其是 TPLS 类 产品。 公司通过海外建厂，尤其针对深远海漂浮式项目，可降低 30%的成本， 自有特种运输船预计在 2026 年下水，提升运力并带来超额收益。 2025 年上半 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.08 海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫 [Table_Industry] 水泥制造业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——海外水泥专题 | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 杨冬庭(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880522080004 | 本报告导读： 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期，而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出海的分化 期，企业机制决定了扩产速度，但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 维持水泥行业"增持"评级：2021-24 年国内水泥海外产能规模显著 扩张，2023-24 年部分企业的海外水泥业务已经成为其盈利构成的 重要部分。但在海外水泥规模"提速"的同时，我们观察到市场对 于高价海外水泥的"纸面黄金"能否真正兑现成盈利能力仍有分歧。 我们认为， ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that the dollar is facing a "anchor" crisis due to the diminishing effectiveness of its traditional backing, such as gold reserves and industrial production capacity, leading to a potential structural adjustment in the international monetary system [1][4][12] - The transition from the gold standard to the gold-exchange standard established a long-lasting credit system for the dollar, which was initially supported by abundant gold reserves [5][7] - The Bretton Woods system expanded the gold-exchange standard globally, with the dollar being pegged to gold, but this system eventually collapsed due to the Triffin dilemma, highlighting the limitations of gold as a backing for the dollar [8][10] Group 2 - The "petrodollar" system was established to create a new anchor for the dollar, linking it to oil trade, which significantly increased the demand for dollars in international transactions [11][12] - The current geopolitical landscape and the rise of alternative currencies, such as the euro and yuan, are challenging the dominance of the dollar, as countries seek to reduce reliance on it for trade [12][14] - The U.S. is attempting to find new anchors for the dollar, such as high-tech products and critical minerals, but faces significant challenges in establishing these as viable alternatives to the "petrodollar" [15][16] Group 3 - The emergence of stablecoins as a potential means to maintain dollar dominance raises questions about their stability and the underlying assets they are tied to, which may not provide a reliable foundation for the dollar's future [18][19] - The volatility of the underlying dollar assets poses risks to stablecoins, as seen during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, which affected the value of stablecoins like USDC [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding Investment Limited and SF Holding Investment 2021 Limited announced a tender offer to repurchase up to $350 million of their outstanding bonds to optimize capital structure, reduce financing costs, and provide liquidity to bondholders [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - SF Holding Investment Limited issued $700 million bonds in February 2020 with a 10-year term and a coupon rate of 2.875% [1]. - SF Holding Investment 2021 Limited issued $500 million bonds in November 2021 and later increased it by $300 million in January 2022, both with a 10-year term and a coupon rate of 3.125% [1]. Group 2: Tender Offer and Repurchase - The tender offer includes a maximum acceptance scale of $350 million for both SF HLDG N3002 and SF HLDG N3111 bonds [2]. - As of May 30, 2025, bondholders submitted $101,371,000 of SF HLDG N3002 bonds (15.50% of the remaining balance) and $78,306,000 of SF HLDG N3111 bonds (10.88% of the remaining balance) for repurchase [3]. - The repurchase price for SF HLDG N3002 bonds is set at $943.50 per $1,000 of principal, with corresponding interest payments [3].

Core Viewpoint - The downward trend in interest rates is becoming increasingly evident, prompting depositors to seek alternative investment strategies due to shrinking returns on traditional RMB deposits [1][5][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The RMB deposit rates have been continuously lowered, leading to a compression of returns for depositors [2][5]. - Some private banks, like Yilian Bank, have raised their one-year fixed deposit rates to 2%, contrasting with the general trend of rate cuts among major banks [3][5]. - As of May 22, 20 commercial banks have joined the trend of lowering RMB deposit rates, indicating a widespread acknowledgment of the ongoing "rate cut wave" [6]. Group 2: Shifts in Depositor Behavior - Depositors are increasingly moving their funds to non-bank financial institutions, with a reported decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan in household deposits in April, while non-bank deposits surged by 1.57 trillion yuan [1][5]. - Individuals like Li Xiang are actively searching for new investment avenues, while others, such as Chen Meng, are still exploring suitable financial products [2][3]. Group 3: Dollar Deposit Products - Several banks are offering attractive dollar deposit rates, with some reaching as high as 4.2% for six-month deposits, but these often come with conditions [4][7]. - The dollar deposit rates are also on a downward trend, with significant declines observed since the end of 2023 [6][8]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The high dollar deposit rates are often conditional, creating uncertainty for depositors who may not benefit from these rates in the long term [7]. - The dollar's value has been fluctuating, with the index dropping below 100, raising concerns about currency exchange risks for depositors [7][8].

- 1 - | 本着审慎谨慎的原则, 就每个原药项目的固定资产投资进行持续的评估和 | | --- | | 决策, 谢谢！ | | 二、请问王总，今年公司有什么产能会落地么，砜吡草唑产能建 | | 设进度如何？ | | 答： | | 谢谢您的关心, 公司的砜吡草唑产线已有投产, 您也可以通过公司定 | | 期公告或微信公众号得到相关信息, 谢谢！ | | 三、请问王总目前公司的原药产能的具体分布和募投项目的投资 | | 进度，和邦生物新增双甘磷产能，公司草甘膦原药生产项目是否改变 | | 技术路线？砜吡草唑建设进度？ | | 答： | | 您好，关于公司募投项目的进度，您可查阅公司年度报告中的专项章 | | 节，谢谢！ | | 四、请问王总今年原药产能的落地和实施情况，砜吡草唑产能建 | | 设进度和推广如何？ | | 答： | | 您好，公司已就此类问题进行了回答, 请查阅相关类似问题的回复内 | | 容，谢谢！ | | 五、请问王总，汇兑损益问题有没有形成比较好的解决方案？ | | 答： | | 您好，关于汇兑损益, 公司咨询了这方面的专业人士，也经常就此问 | | 题与同行交流，实质上大家普遍对此问题也 ...

对于新台币5月初疯狂升值，高盛于报告中指出，台币升值10%将会替中国台湾寿险业带来约5760亿元 新台币的未实现汇兑损失，相当于可能抹去2024年的税前收益，外汇价格变动准备金也可能连带归零。 （彭博） ...

Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 234 million yuan, up 31.80% year-on-year [1] - The increase in domestic cement prices and a decrease in coal costs contributed to gross profit, despite slow recovery in domestic demand impacting sales [2] - The company expects continued profit growth from overseas cement operations and stable unit profitability from aggregates, with net profit projections for 2025-2027 being 2.438 billion, 2.504 billion, and 2.642 billion yuan respectively [3] Financial Analysis - The average price of high-standard cement in Q1 was 398 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35 yuan/ton, indicating a significant price recovery [2] - The difference between net profit and net profit attributable to shareholders is influenced by shareholding ratios in overseas operations, with minority interests exceeding 110 million yuan in Q1 [2] - Financial expenses increased by 70% year-on-year, primarily due to exchange rate impacts, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios reported at 5.30%, 6.41%, and 4.32% respectively [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with expected net profit growth rates of 1%, 3%, and 6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 10 [3] - The company is expected to manage exchange rate risks effectively as it expands overseas operations, learning from experiences to mitigate profit volatility [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.296 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, but a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 41.63% to 450 million yuan [1] - The agricultural protection industry is nearing a bottom, with product prices continuing to decline but at a slower rate than in 2023 [2] - The company is expanding its global marketing network, with a significant increase in revenue from its To C business model [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.38%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.44% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.686 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.26% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.49% [1] - The gross profit margins for herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides decreased in 2024 due to falling product prices, with respective declines of 0.7 percentage points, 6.0 percentage points, and 0.1 percentage points [2] Cost and Expenses - Sales expenses increased by 51.1% to 654 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to higher overseas employee salaries and increased consulting, travel, advertising, and export credit insurance costs [2] - Financial expenses rose significantly due to increased foreign exchange losses, impacting the company's overall performance [2] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 19.3% year-on-year, but improved by approximately 1.1 percentage points compared to Q4 2024 [2] Market Expansion - The company has established six manufacturing bases and over 110 subsidiaries globally, operating in more than 100 countries [3] - By the end of 2024, the company held over 7,700 pesticide registration certificates, with 1,000 new registrations obtained during the year [3] - Revenue from the company's To C business model reached 5.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, with its revenue share rising by 3.8 percentage points to 37.65% [3] Profit Forecast - Due to the decline in agricultural product prices and increased expenses, the company's 2024 performance was below previous expectations [4] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 979 million yuan, 1.228 billion yuan, and 1.520 billion yuan respectively [4]