在装修行业深耕十几年，做快手电商8年，从五金日杂店老板，到整日跑市场积累资源的装修材料二批 商家，再到坐拥超1140万粉丝的快手家居头部主播，创业路上机遇与坎坷并存，但他始终坚持把"服 务"和"质量"当做第一要义，以最专业和实在的初心面对所有消费者。 祝哥越来越适应在镜头前表达观点的生活：面对着各式各样的家电家具，有条不紊地分析着用料和工 艺，和商家可能会"以次充好"的手段。 今年，祝哥受邀成为快手"国补合伙人"项目的成员之一，他在直播间推广国补新品，让更多用户享受到 国补带来的实惠。在中国新闻网联合快手电商发布的"国补合伙人"系列视频中，内向祝哥第一次讲述了 自己和直播间的故事。 在他看来，自己并非能说会道，是个有天赋的主播，那就以真诚取胜，"把质量升级到最好，把服务做 到最好，抓住每个能为大家带来福利的机会，踏实做自己该做的事情，终有一天能收获人们的认可"。 从批发市场到直播间，精品资源引爆亿级生意 在快手直播间卖出30多万元的那天晚上，祝哥彻夜未眠。 那是2018年5月他首次在快手尝试做直播活动，仅用了两个小时，却卖出了比他预期成绩多上5倍的销售 额，"当时快手还没推出小黄车，我家5位客服的社交软件直接 ...

Economic Overview - In July 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month[3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year but decreased by 0.14% month-on-month[3] - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year[3] Investment Trends - Both infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth turned negative in July, with broad infrastructure down by 1.9% and narrow infrastructure down by 5.1%[4][8] - Manufacturing investment growth fell from 5.1% in June to -0.3% in July, indicating a significant decline in investment momentum[6][23] Consumption Insights - The decline in retail sales growth to 3.7% in July was primarily driven by a decrease in automobile sales and weak demand in other categories[8][9] - The effectiveness of the "trade-in" policy for stimulating consumption has weakened, with significant drops in categories like automobiles and home appliances[9][34] Employment Concerns - The urban surveyed unemployment rate increased, indicating a potential rise in youth unemployment, particularly among the 16-24 age group[4][15] - The number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to be 12.22 million, higher than the previous year's 11.79 million, raising concerns about job market saturation[4] Risks and Challenges - The current economic environment shows signs of "production stability, weak consumption, and weak investment," posing risks for the second half of the year[3] - External shocks and insufficient effective demand remain significant challenges for economic performance in the latter half of 2025[3][10]

各位童鞋搭嘎猴啊，上周" AI 应用报告"看得怎么样？有童鞋在后台留言：" AI 的大潮纷纷 扰扰，还好有秋天的补贴奶茶慰藉我心……" O( ∩ _ ∩ )O 最近外卖补贴确实保持了一如既 往的高强度，不过 AI 也确实引发了观点分歧，尤其是 GPT5 出来之后，很多人觉得离预期 的 AIGC 更远了，这也进一步加剧了这种看法。那么，该如何理解这种局面呢？在 Mr.QM 看来，答案其实很简单，这半年多以来， AI 早就在各个领域应用起来了，就如同互联网润 物细无声，因此，技术本身自然一步一步祛魅了…… 言归正传，今天就给大家分享一下 2025 年智能手机市场洞察。在国补的刺激下，上半年智 能手机市场出现了新机上市、销售出货两旺的局面，尤其是国产智能手机品牌，活跃设备数 量出现了全面增长的态势。 Qu e s tMobi l e 数据显示，截止到 2025 年 6 月，华为、苹 果、 OPPO 、 v i vo 、小米、荣耀的活跃设备数分别达到 2.88 亿台、 2.71 亿台、 2.33 亿台、 1.93 亿台、 1.21 亿台、 0.97 亿台，同比增长率分别为 2.2% 、 1.2% 、 1.1% 、 6 ...

Equity – Oversea Research 海通国际市场洞察系列-电商补贴混战 Barney Yao, barney.sq.yao@htisec.com Aug 2025 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单 位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声 明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 目录 1. 外卖大战各家策略分析，补贴力度 6. 风险提示 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.co ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Chinese Economy and Various Industries**: The records discuss the overall economic performance of China and specific sectors such as food and beverage, light industry, electric two-wheelers, textiles, and pharmaceuticals. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Projections**: China's economic growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target of 5.0%. A slowdown to approximately 4.8% is expected in the second half due to structural adjustments [5][1][6]. 2. **Inflation and Foreign Investment**: Global credit expansion and rising inflation are favorable for pushing domestic inflation in China, potentially attracting foreign investment as the RMB faces appreciation pressure [6][1]. 3. **Food and Beverage Sector**: Focus on growth categories and valuation shifts in the food and beverage sector, with recommendations for leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye. The introduction of national fertility subsidies is expected to positively impact consumption [8][1]. 4. **Light Industry Opportunities**: The light industry is benefiting from policy changes, particularly in the paper and packaging sector. Recommendations include companies like Sun Paper and Jiulong Paper [9][10]. 5. **Electric Two-Wheeler Market**: The electric two-wheeler sector is seeing government subsidies, with a focus on companies like Yadea and Aima Technology, which are expected to perform well in terms of sales [12][1]. 6. **Textile and Apparel Sector**: Brands like Nike are seeing improvements in inventory and channel issues, with a recommendation for manufacturers like Jiuxing Holdings due to strong order growth [14][1]. 7. **Pharmaceutical Industry Trends**: The innovative drug sector is highlighted as a hot market, with strong demand from global pharmaceutical companies for Chinese innovations. Recommendations include focusing on CXO and upstream supply chains [33][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt and Deflation Measures**: China is implementing measures to stabilize the currency and boost stock indices to address debt and deflation issues, which have improved market confidence [2][1]. 2. **Impact of External Factors on Domestic Markets**: The records discuss how external factors, such as U.S. tariffs and interest rate changes, are influencing domestic industries, particularly in the appliance and tool sectors [19][20]. 3. **Tourism and Hospitality Sector**: The hotel industry is stable, with economic hotels outperforming mid-to-high-end hotels. The opening of the Shenbei High-Speed Railway is expected to boost tourism in the Changbai Mountain area [37][41]. 4. **Agricultural Sector Dynamics**: The pig farming industry is undergoing supply adjustments, with a target reduction in breeding stock, which may lead to higher prices in the future [42][1]. 5. **Extreme Weather Effects on Agriculture**: Extreme weather conditions are impacting crop production, with potential implications for grain prices and agricultural companies like Longping High-Tech [44][1]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and sector-specific opportunities in China.

Core Viewpoint - The Chery Windcloud A9L has become a significant sales driver for the dealership, with its competitive pricing and appealing features attracting customer interest [1][9]. Group 1: Product Arrival and Pricing - The dealership received 10 units of the Windcloud A9L, including 7 high-end models and 3 mid-range models [2]. - The official pricing of the Windcloud A9L ranges from 139,900 to 197,900 CNY, which is lower than the pre-sale price of 159,900 to 229,900 CNY, leading to positive customer reception [3][4]. Group 2: Customer Interest and Feedback - Daily customer traffic remains stable, with around 5-6 groups on weekdays and up to 20 groups on weekends, with approximately 20% specifically interested in the Windcloud A9L [5]. - Customer feedback highlights the car's attractive exterior and decent interior quality, but some complaints focus on the hard suspension and noticeable road noise during test drives [5][7]. Group 3: Competitive Analysis - The Windcloud A9L's advantages include its appealing design and a significant price reduction compared to pre-sale figures, which has positively influenced customer decisions [7]. - However, the car's initial pricing leaves little room for negotiation, causing some potential buyers to hesitate, fearing future price drops [7][17]. Group 4: Financial Policies and Incentives - The manufacturer offers a financial policy of three years with 100,000 CNY interest-free financing, which is considered attractive for a vehicle in this price range [12]. - Additional promotional incentives include various discounts and free services, enhancing the overall value proposition for customers [4][15]. Group 5: Sales Perspective - Sales personnel express a generally positive view of the Windcloud A9L, noting its affordability and potential to drive sales, despite challenges from competing dealerships [17]. - The dealership's reliance on the Windcloud A9L is evident, as it has become crucial for maintaining business operations amid market fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - Apple has successfully reversed its declining revenue trend in Greater China by implementing price reductions, leading to a record high revenue in Q2 of fiscal year 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Apple reported revenue of $94.036 billion, a 10% increase from $85.777 billion year-over-year, and a net profit of $23.434 billion, up 9% from $21.448 billion [2]. - Revenue from iPhone reached approximately $44.58 billion, a year-over-year growth of nearly 13.5%, while Mac revenue was $8.05 billion, growing 14.8%, and services revenue was $27.42 billion, up nearly 13.3% [2]. Market Dynamics - The growth in Q2 was partly driven by U.S. consumers purchasing devices ahead of tariff implementations, with approximately 1% of the growth attributed to this behavior [4][5]. - Apple incurred about $800 million in tariff costs in Q2, with expectations of these costs rising to $1.1 billion in the next quarter, posing challenges to profitability [5][6]. Regional Performance - Apple achieved a revenue of $15.369 billion in Greater China, marking a growth of over 4% from $14.728 billion year-over-year, successfully reversing a seven-quarter decline [6]. - The sales growth in Greater China was primarily attributed to increased iPhone sales and the impact of government subsidies on digital products [6][7]. Pricing Strategy - Apple has broken its tradition of avoiding price cuts, significantly reducing prices on flagship models like the iPhone 16 Pro to stimulate sales [7]. - The price reduction strategy has led to a surge in sales, with Apple regaining the top position in both sales volume and revenue during the 618 shopping festival [7]. Competitive Landscape - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of sales driven by price reductions, as Apple currently lacks a fundamental advantage over Android competitors [8]. - The closure of an Apple Store in Dalian has raised market concerns about Apple's commitment to the Chinese market, although the company continues to expand its retail presence in other areas [8].

Group 1 - The concept of "national subsidies" (国补) is perceived as a way for consumers to take advantage of discounts, particularly during major shopping events like 618 and Double Eleven [1][3] - National subsidies are not universally applicable; they are tied to specific products and timeframes, which can lead to consumer frustration if they miss the opportunity [3][5] - E-commerce platforms may raise prices to maintain profit margins, even while offering subsidies, which can create a false sense of discount for consumers [5][7] Group 2 - The fluctuation of prices is a natural phenomenon in the market, and consumers should not be overly concerned about price increases or decreases [9][10] - Brands claiming to sell at a loss should be approached with caution, as this is often not sustainable in a competitive market [7][9] - The relationship between cost and profit is crucial, especially during high-demand periods, and companies will adjust prices accordingly to avoid losses [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's decision to close its first retail store in China after 17 years has raised concerns, attributed to the financial crisis of the Dalian Baijian City shopping center where the store is located [3][6]. Group 1: Store Closure Details - The Apple Store in Dalian Baijian City will cease operations on August 9, marking the first closure of an Apple retail store in China since the first store opened in Beijing in July 2008 [1][3]. - The closure is linked to the departure of multiple retailers from the shopping center, which has been facing severe financial difficulties and legal issues since 2022 [3][6]. - Notable brands that have closed their stores in the same shopping center include Versus, Coach, Kenzo, and Hugo Boss, among others [3]. Group 2: New Store Openings - Despite the closure in Dalian, Apple plans to open a new store in Shenzhen on August 16, which will be its third retail location in the city [3][6]. - Earlier this year, Apple opened its first retail store in Anhui at Hefei Mixc, and last year, it opened its eighth store in Shanghai [6]. Group 3: Market Performance and Challenges - Apple's revenue from the Greater China region was reported at $16 billion for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, showing a year-on-year decline of 2% [6]. - The overall smartphone market in China saw a shipment volume of 68.96 million units in the second quarter, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with Apple holding a 13.9% market share, ranking fifth [7]. - IDC noted that Apple's shipment volume exceeded expectations, partly due to price reductions and promotional activities during the "618" shopping festival [7].

Core Viewpoint - Apple has decided to close its first retail store in China after 17 years of operation, marking a significant shift in its retail strategy in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Store Closures and Openings - The Apple Store in Dalian, located in the Baijincheng shopping center, will cease operations on August 9, 2023, which is the first closure since the opening of its first store in Beijing in July 2008 [1]. - The closure is attributed to the financial crisis faced by the Baijincheng shopping center, which has seen several well-known retailers exit, including Versus, Coach, and Hugo Boss [2]. - Despite the closure in Dalian, Apple is expanding its presence in China by opening a new store in Shenzhen on August 16, 2023, which will be its third store in the city [2][3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Strategy - Apple's revenue from the Greater China region was reported at $16 billion for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2% [3]. - The overall smartphone market in China saw a shipment volume of 68.96 million units in the second quarter, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, with Apple holding a 13.9% market share, ranking fifth [4]. - IDC noted that Apple's shipment volume exceeded expectations, partly due to promotional pricing strategies during the "618" shopping festival [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The smartphone market in China is expected to face greater pressure in the second half of the year due to ongoing economic challenges and low consumer confidence [5]. - Despite the anticipated recovery of certain market conditions, the overall demand for smartphones is projected to remain subdued [5].