2025 年 08 月 16 日 策略类●证券研究报告 短期慢牛持续，聚焦成长和补涨 定期报告 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用、政策超预期变化、经济修复不及预期。 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 重大事件驱动新股二级交投再度活跃，但关 键期变化仍在逐步展开-华金证券新股周报 2025.8.10 慢牛延续，成长风格不变 2025.8.9 大金融、通信二季度外资持仓规模上升 2025.8.8 变盘迹象或有所显现，关键期建议保持灵活 警惕-华金证券新股周报 2025.8.4 | 一、估值中高位后 A 股会怎么走？ 3 | | | --- | --- | | （一）基本面偏强、政策宽松等驱动 A 股估值中高位后继续上涨 | 3 | | （二）短期 A 股延续震荡上行的慢牛趋势 | 4 | | 二、行业配置：短期聚焦成长和补涨行业 7 | | | （一）短期科技、周期和大金融中的低估值补涨行业可能相对占优 | 7 | | （二）从估值性价比角度筛选成长 ...

金融工程 市场情绪监控周报（20250811-20250815） 本周热度变化最大行业为非银金融、通信 ❖ 本周市场热度跟踪 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为非银金融、通信、国防军工、家用电器、汽车，负向变化前 5 的一级 行业分别为医药生物、建筑材料、煤炭、社会服务、钢铁；申万二级行业中， 热度正向变化率最大的 5 个行业是燃气Ⅱ、电视广播Ⅱ、航海装备Ⅱ、电机 Ⅱ、休闲食品。 本周概念热度变化最大的 5 个概念为天津自贸区、期货概念、深圳国企改革、 ETC、国产操作系统。 ❖ 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为中证 2000，相比上周提高 4.9%， 最小的为"其他"，相比上周降低 6.88%。 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 76%、96%、 88%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、计算机、银行、电子、国防军工、建筑材料、医药生 物、传媒、轻工制造；位于估值历史 20%以下的 ...

截至2025年8月15日收盘，利仁科技股价报26.54元，较前一交易日下跌0.97%。当日成交量为16274手， 成交金额达0.43亿元。 利仁科技主营业务为小家电产品的研发、生产和销售，产品涵盖厨房电器、生活电器等多个品类。公司 所属行业为家用电器板块。 8月15日晚间，利仁科技发布公告称，公司第四届董事会第三次会议审议通过了《关于使用闲置募集资 金进行现金管理的议案》。同日召开的监事会会议也通过了该项议案。 资金流向方面，8月15日主力资金净流入281.22万元，近五个交易日累计净流入507.16万元。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" will alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit", with a greater boost to PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate [5][21]. - The US economy shows signs of weakness, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 75bp in 2025 [5][83]. - China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, but it can achieve the 5% target for the whole year [5]. - The A - share market still has a certain degree of sustainability, and the bond market is likely to fluctuate narrowly, while the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 "Anti - involution": Alleviate the Dilemma of "Increasing Revenue without Increasing Profit" and Improve Market Performance Expectations - **Overview**: "Anti - involution" aims to promote the economy to return from "scale expansion" to "high - quality growth", improve social overall efficiency, and is a key part of building a unified national market [10][11]. - **Approach**: Different from the previous supply - side reform, it focuses on downstream emerging industries, mainly private enterprises, with more moderate and gradual policies using market - based and legal means [18][19]. - **Impact**: It is expected to have a greater impact on PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate, but there is uncertainty in the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [21][24]. - **Style**: From April to September, the market pays more attention to performance, and the "anti - involution" direction has performance release expectations [28]. - **Law**: It may be a key factor supporting the strength of the A - share market, and the current "anti - involution" market is in the policy - expectation stage [32][36]. - **Summary**: It can alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" and improve market performance expectations [46]. 2 Global: The US Economy Shows Signs of Weakness, and the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation is Rising - **Overseas Tariffs**: The US average effective tariff rate has reached the highest level since 1933, reducing global economic growth potential, and tariffs remain a key variable affecting China's exports [49]. - **Overseas Economy**: The global economy has short - term resilience, but the US economy shows signs of weakness in investment, and the Fed has lowered its economic growth forecast [55][60][66]. - **Overseas Inflation**: The short - term impact of tariffs on US inflation is emerging, and the medium - term inflation trend still faces great uncertainty [69][73]. - **Overseas Liquidity**: The inflection point of non - farm data may have arrived, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected 75bp rate cut in 2025 [77][83]. - **Summary**: The global economy has short - term resilience but increasing uncertainty, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [83]. 3 China: The Economic Growth Rate May be High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, and the Spontaneous Recovery Momentum Needs to be Consolidated - **Economic Overview**: China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the GDP growth rate in Q3 and Q4 expected to decline compared with Q1 and Q2 [84]. - **Investment End**: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to bottom out, and real estate investment is still the main drag [85]. - **Consumption End**: Consumption data still has resilience, and service consumption may be the key area of development [27]. - **Export End**: Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs and export over - draw effects [5][28]. - **Liquidity**: The government sector is still the main force for increasing leverage, and the time for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is expected to be postponed [28]. - **Summary**: The annual economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half [29]. 4 Market Strategy: Positive Factors are Gradually Accumulating to Strengthen the Foundation for the A - share Market to Improve - **General Trend Judgment**: The subsequent market is expected to have a certain degree of sustainability [30]. - **Policy Trends**: The economic policy in the second half of the year is expected to maintain its stance and act appropriately [32]. - **Allocation Framework**: Gradually increase the allocation of stock assets [33]. - **Investment Advice**: The equity index will run strongly, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly, and the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5][33].

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 非银金 | 136.04 | 45.43 | 3.28 | 3.16 | 154.98 | | 融 | | | | | | | 电力设 备 | 99.65 | 7.36 | 3.98 | 2.85 | 55.27 | | 有色金 属 | 73.37 | 3.71 | 3.34 | 2.23 | 36.90 | | 电子 | 105.13 | -6.15 | 3.80 | 2.05 | 29.27 | | 家用电 器 | 26.82 | 28.05 | 3.53 | 1.07 | 20.14 | | 基础化 工 | 69.90 | -10.39 | 2.58 | 2.09 | 16.12 | | 机械设 备 | 101.55 | -10.39 | 3.74 | 1.94 | ...

现金流500ETF（560120）聚焦有色金属、基础化工、交通运输、机械设备、医药生物等领域，成长性 和质量兼具，中小盘风格特征。此外，现金流500ETF每季度进行评估及收益分配，在符合基金分红条 件下，可安排收益分配 。 A股上市公司半年报披露渐入高峰期，据统计，截至8月14日18时，已有超300家A股公司披露半年报。 其中，近200家公司上半年归母净利润实现同比增长，30多家公司实现扭亏为盈，近30家公司实现业绩 同比倍增，增长动能强劲。从行业分布来看，汽车、电力设备、有色金属等行业A股公司上半年业绩表 现良好。 自由现金流ETF（159201）成分股聚焦自由现金流充裕的行业龙头，行业覆盖家用电器、汽车、有色金 属、电力设备、石油石化等高壁垒领域，行业分散性显著，有效规避单一行业波动风险，是底仓配置的 有利选择。基金管理年费率0.15%，托管年费率0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平。 8月15日午后，A股市场延续上行趋势，自由现金流策略表现亮眼。截至13点30，500现金流指数涨 2.23%，自由现金流指数涨1.68%，相关ETF跟随指数稳步上行，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF （159201）盘中成交额率 ...

统计局：社会消费品零售总额38780亿元，同比增长3.7%。按消费类型分，7月份，商品零售额34276亿元，同比增长4.0%；餐饮收入4504亿元，增长1.1%。1—7月份，全国网上零售额86835亿元，同比增长9.2%。其中，实物商品网上零售额70790亿元，增长6.3%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为24.9%；在实物商品网上零售额中，吃类、穿类、用类商品分别增长14.7%、1.7%、5.8%。7月家用电器和音像器材类零售总额同比增30.4%，文化办公类增23.7%，通讯器材类增22.9%，家具类增22.6%，体育、娱乐用品类增21.1%，金银珠宝类增11%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 15 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 08 月 15 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 1、大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.5%，沪深 300 下跌 0.1%，科创 50 上涨 0.7%，中证 1000 下跌 1.2%，创 业板指下跌 1.1%，恒生指数下跌 0.4%。 2、行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是非银金融（+0.6%)、银行（-0.0%)、食品饮料（-0.2%)、家用电器 （-0.3%)、房地产（-0.5%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-2.7%)、国防军工（-2.2%)、通信（-2.1%)、钢铁 （-2.0%)、纺织服饰（-1.7%)。 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.5%，沪深 300 下跌 0.1%，科创 50 上涨 0.7%，中证 1000 下跌 1.2%，创业板指下跌 1.1%，恒生指数下跌 0.4%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是非银金融（+0.6%)、银行（-0.0%)、食品饮料（-0.2%)、家用电器 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with total turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, reaching a new high of 2.31 trillion yuan on August 14, 2023, up 130 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The decline in deposit interest rates has led to an expansion in bank wealth management and "fixed income+" fund scales, with resident funds indirectly entering the equity market through these channels, becoming a major source of incremental capital for future market trends [1] - The three major A-share indices experienced a collective pullback on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3704.77 points before closing at 3666.44 points, down 0.46% [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed last year's high, indicating three new dimensions of outperformance: historical cost-effectiveness, consistent outperformance against economic growth, and potential outperformance against US stocks [2] - Despite external shocks and internal challenges, various industries in China have maintained steady growth, with GDP increasing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a resilient macroeconomic foundation [2] - Analysts suggest that while there may be increased volatility in the index due to valuation rises and new capital inflows, the current market trend since last year's "924" remains intact, supported by loose liquidity and improving corporate earnings [2]

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 自由现金流ETF（159201）成分股聚焦自由现金流充裕的行业龙头，行业覆盖家用电器、汽车、有 色金属、电力设备、石油石化等高壁垒领域，行业分散性显著，有效规避单一行业波动风险，是底仓配 置的有利选择。基金管理年费率0.15%，托管年费率0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平。 每日经济新闻 8月14日，A股小幅高开，上证指数开涨0.06%，深证成指开涨0.05%，创业板指平开。国证自由现 金流指数盘中震荡飘红，成分股模塑科技，潍柴动力、德邦股份、上海钢联等跟涨。相关ETF方面，同 类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201）跟随指数上行，交投活跃。 昨日A股延续上攻步伐，上证指数报收3683.46点，创2024年"9·24"行情以来的新高；合计成交2.18 万亿元，创今年3月以来新高。中金公司表示，乐观情绪下本轮行情尚未结束，后市估值抬升、增量资 金入市背景下不排除指数波动加大，但宽松流动性结合盈利修复及叙事扭转，自去年"9·24"以来的本轮 行情仍在延续过程中。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整 ...