当今时代，全球正处于百年未有之大变局，恰逢新一轮科技革 命的到来，AI领域的国际竞争也愈演愈烈。从历史、经济和政 治的视角分析科技革命，并预判AI国际竞争态势，这值得社会 各界密切关注。 作者：刘诚 封图：图虫创意 历史上，全球大国的崛起总是与科技革命紧密相连。 当今时代，全球正处于百年未有之大变局，恰逢新一轮科技革命的到来，AI领域的国际竞争也愈 演愈烈。从历史、经济和政治的视角分析科技革命，并预判AI国际竞争态势，这值得社会各界密 切关注。 历史逻辑：科技中心的演变 1954年，英国学者约翰·德斯蒙德·贝尔纳（John Desmond Bernal）在其著作《历史上的科学》 中，首次系统地提出了"全球科学中心转移"这一学术命题，探究了全球科学活动主导地位在地理空 间层面上的历史性变迁情况。 1962年，日本科学史家汤浅光朝通过定量统计分析发现，近代以来，全球科学中心按照"意大利— 英国—法国—德国—美国"的顺序依次转移，转移周期大约为80年，这一规律被后世称作"汤浅现 象"周期律。 美国耶鲁大学历史学教授保罗·肯尼迪（Paul Kennedy）在1992年曾经指出，从历史上看任何大国 的崛起都与科技创新紧 ...

Group 1: Historical Logic of Technological Evolution - The rise of global powers has historically been linked to technological revolutions, with a focus on the evolution of global scientific centers [3][4] - The "Takahashi phenomenon" indicates that global scientific centers have shifted approximately every 80 years, following a pattern from Italy to the US [3][4] - Technological innovation is a precursor to economic, political, and cultural dominance, serving as the first step in the rise of great powers [3][4] Group 2: Economic Logic of Paradigm Shifts - Technological revolutions do not automatically lead to industrial revolutions; a significant leap is required for commercialization and industrialization [5][6] - General Purpose Technologies (GPT) are crucial for achieving economic paradigm shifts, enabling the transition from technological to industrial revolutions [6][7] - Historical examples illustrate that the widespread application of GPT is key to economic transformation and societal advancement [6][7] Group 3: Political Logic of Power Dynamics - Economic and technological advancements lead to the concentration of international power, facilitating the rise of great powers [7][8] - The emergence of new paradigms can shift global power centers, with GPT playing a significant role in this transition [9][10] - Infrastructure development is essential for leveraging technological changes, as seen in historical examples of maritime and rail advancements [11][12] Group 4: Era of AI International Competition - The current global landscape features multiple technological and economic centers, complicating competitive dynamics [16][17] - The transition from platform economy to intelligent economy marks a significant shift, with countries like China seizing opportunities in emerging technologies [17][18] - The integration of new technologies is reshaping traditional industries and creating new economic ecosystems, emphasizing the importance of collaborative development [18]