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从科技革命到AI竞争:大国崛起的关键变量
经济观察报· 2025-07-14 10:34
Historical Logic: Evolution of Technology Centers - The rise of global powers has historically been closely linked to technological revolutions [2][6] - The transfer of global scientific centers has occurred approximately every 80 years, following a pattern from Italy to the US [5] - Technological innovation is a precursor to economic, political, cultural, and military centers, marking the first step in a nation's rise [7] Economic Logic: Leap in Economic Paradigms - Technological revolutions do not automatically lead to industrial revolutions; a significant leap is required for transformation [9] - General Purpose Technologies (GPT) are crucial for achieving economic paradigm shifts and transitioning from technological to industrial revolutions [10][11] - GPTs are characterized by universal applicability, complementary innovations, and technological dynamism, playing a vital role in national economic ascendance [12] Political Logic: Rise of Great Powers - Economic and technological advancements lead to the concentration of international power, facilitating the rise of great powers [14] - The emergence of new paradigms can shift global power centers, driven by the adoption of GPTs [16] - Infrastructure development is essential for nations to seize opportunities presented by technological changes [18] Era Logic: International Competition in AI - The current global landscape features multiple technology and economic centers, leading to complex competitive dynamics [28] - The fourth industrial revolution is occurring within a fragmented international economic system, affecting trade and economic strategies [32] - The transition from platform economy to intelligent economy highlights the need for nations to adapt and seize AI opportunities [33] AI International Competition - The integration of new technologies is reshaping traditional production models and fostering new economic ecosystems [35] - The collaboration between industries and technology systems is becoming a key factor in economic competition [35] - Industries are increasingly becoming the main drivers of technological innovation, surpassing academic contributions in fields like artificial intelligence [35]
从科技革命到AI竞争:大国崛起的关键变量
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-07-12 00:12
Group 1: Historical Logic of Technological Evolution - The rise of global powers has historically been linked to technological revolutions, with a focus on the evolution of global scientific centers [3][4] - The "Takahashi phenomenon" indicates that global scientific centers have shifted approximately every 80 years, following a pattern from Italy to the US [3][4] - Technological innovation is a precursor to economic, political, and cultural dominance, serving as the first step in the rise of great powers [3][4] Group 2: Economic Logic of Paradigm Shifts - Technological revolutions do not automatically lead to industrial revolutions; a significant leap is required for commercialization and industrialization [5][6] - General Purpose Technologies (GPT) are crucial for achieving economic paradigm shifts, enabling the transition from technological to industrial revolutions [6][7] - Historical examples illustrate that the widespread application of GPT is key to economic transformation and societal advancement [6][7] Group 3: Political Logic of Power Dynamics - Economic and technological advancements lead to the concentration of international power, facilitating the rise of great powers [7][8] - The emergence of new paradigms can shift global power centers, with GPT playing a significant role in this transition [9][10] - Infrastructure development is essential for leveraging technological changes, as seen in historical examples of maritime and rail advancements [11][12] Group 4: Era of AI International Competition - The current global landscape features multiple technological and economic centers, complicating competitive dynamics [16][17] - The transition from platform economy to intelligent economy marks a significant shift, with countries like China seizing opportunities in emerging technologies [17][18] - The integration of new technologies is reshaping traditional industries and creating new economic ecosystems, emphasizing the importance of collaborative development [18]