经济观察报观察家 . 理性，建设性 以下文章来源于经济观察报观察家 ，作者李佩珊 在全球格局重塑与产业转型临界点叠加的时刻，经济学家、杜 克大学社会学系教授高柏认为，通过收入分配改革与福利制度 建设，减轻家庭财务风险，使增长重新变得"可感"，是激发真 实消费与投资意愿的根本路径。 作者： 李佩珊 封图：图虫创意 当"反内卷"成为制度改革的关键词，它不仅意味着治理"低级竞争的无尽螺旋"，更是一种对制度设 计与社会生态的重构尝试。我们看到，从互联网平台推出防疲劳机制、取消骑手超时扣款，到银行 拒绝低于成本的价格战，从债市承销严禁"赔本赚吆喝"到反不正当竞争法规的修订。 经济学家、杜克大学社会学系教授高柏尝试通过"全球化的钟摆运动""霸权更迭""科技革命"三重因 素叠加的宏观学术分析框架的透视，将之回到一个最朴素的问题，那就是，增长与分配、预期与福 利、政策与生活之间，如何重建更有韧性的连接？ 在《把脉：全球巨变与中国经济》一书中，高柏以"三大历史长周期同频共振"这一宏观框架，重构 了对中国经济发展路径的系统性观察，也给出了一个令人警醒的判断， 我们正身处"过去40年的 欠账"集中爆发的阶段 ：长期依赖出口与供给侧 ...

历经四年的艰难筑底，中国资本市场在2025年迎来历史性转变。政策底逐步夯实、风险溢价回落、人民 币贬值预期逆转，叠加科技企业在全球竞争力持续提升，一场关于中国资产价值重估的浪潮悄然涌向远 方。 近日，华泰证券机构业务委员会主席梁红在接受证券时报记者专访时指出，在资本市场深刻变革的背景 下，研究实力将成为头部券商核心竞争力的重要组成部分。在华泰证券，研究员正在从传统的"股票分 析师"转型为真正的"产业专家"，以深度研究重塑投行价值。 预期逆转：从低配中国到中国资产重估的大幕初启 过去四年间，中国资本市场遭遇了多重挑战：房地产风险外溢、经济增长放缓、地缘政治博弈加剧，海 外投资者持续低配中国或规避中国资产，国内机构也不得不持续营销固收产品，来对抗权益产品的赎回 影响。 去年此时，海外投资者对中国资产配置意愿下降。当所有坏消息都被计入价格时，反弹的种子已然埋 下。去年三季度以来，一系列政策措施为经济企稳提供支持。随后，10年期国债利率一度跌破1.6%， 无风险收益率大幅降低，引发投资者风险偏好的抬升。对利差损的担忧，也使得保险资金明显加大了对 红利股等资产的配置。 "原本市场认为只有中国有较高的风险溢价，后来发现美 ...

科技革命驱动的财富核爆，正在重塑我们对个人财富的认知边界。 当地时间10月1日，全球财经圈被一则消息引爆——特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的个人财富 ，成为人类历史上首位"半万亿富翁"。 根据《福布斯》实时亿万富翁追踪数据，截至美东时间10月1日下午，他的身价已达5001亿美元。 这一数字意味着自2024年12月成为首位身价突破4000亿美元的富豪后，马斯克在短短数月内财富再度飙升，目前 ，他以1900亿美元身家登顶全球首富；而今日，他以 ，将人类财富上限推向了前所未有的高度。 马斯克的财富版图早已不是"特斯拉独角戏"。 马斯克的财富增长堪称一场"科技革命驱动的财富核爆"。 2020年3月，特斯拉股价仅为246亿美元，马斯克个人财富不足300亿美元； ，他成为全球第五位千亿富翁。 到了 这场财富飞跃的核心引擎，是特斯拉与SpaceX的"双轮驱动"。 10月1日，特斯拉股价收涨近4%，单日就为马斯克的财富增添了约93亿美元。市场分析认为，这反映出投资者对其将更多精力重新聚焦于特斯拉管理的前景 持续看好。 。 他于 近期完成私募股权交易后，估值从2024年12月的3500亿美元攀升至4000亿美元。 马斯克持有Sp ...

这次的牛市，并不是雨露均沾，鸡犬升天的牛市，而是冰火两重天的牛市。一方面，芯片、 光模块、创新药、机器人、存储、固态电池等科技概念轮番上阵，涨幅惊人，另一方面，银 行、保险、地产、消费等传统版块，被吸得连血都快空了。很多传统意义上的白马优质股， 股价也是大幅跑输市场。"老登"们一边高呼看不懂，一边对科技嗤之以鼻。 我的理解是，世界经济是以创新周期为单位，脉冲式前进的，并不是一条直线的斜率向上。 一波科技红利，催生一波基础设施的变化，创造出新的需求，然后基于这些基础设施的应用 再慢慢开花结果。这个周期是以20年为单位的。 上一波世界级的科技红利，来自于互联网和移动互联网。基础设施来自于电信运营商（零几 年的移动、联通，在就业市场的受追捧程度，经历过那个时代的人都懂），来自于手机厂商 （基本上造就了苹果、三星、小米、OV等世界级巨头）。然后应用端，google、亚马逊、阿 里、腾讯、百度、字节等世界级的平台型公司，也是这一波科技红利的直接结果。 现在世界进入了新的一波AI主导的科技革命，而且比上一次还要大，这可能是蒸汽机以来人类 最伟大的技术革命，甚至某种程度上可能真的实现共产主义愿景里的物质极大丰富，大家按 需 ...

■ 苏向杲 9月25日，宁德时代股价盘中突破400元整数关口，总市值一度超越贵州茅台，引发市场广泛关注。今年 以来，A股科技板块持续活跃，而部分传统行业板块表现相对平淡，不同板块之间的市值呈现"此消彼 长"态势，持续重塑着市场结构。 近日，中国证监会主席吴清在国新办新闻发布会上指出，目前A股科技板块市值占比超过1/4，已明显高 于银行、非银金融、房地产行业市值合计占比。市值前50名公司中科技企业从"十三五"末的18家提升至 当前的24家。 笔者认为，A股市场市值格局的演变，清晰反映了我国经济转型的路径。进一步看，这一变化折射出三 大新趋势。 其一，科技革命成为驱动增长的新引擎。 以往，金融、地产和传统资源类企业是市场的市值支柱，其高占比反映出投资拉动的增长模式。当前， 科技板块市值占比持续提升，新能源、人工智能、生物医药等新兴产业公司市值快速攀升，标志着中国 经济正加速转向创新驱动。这一转变顺应全球科技与产业变革趋势，表明新质生产力已在资本市场扎 根，经济增长动能加速转换，发展韧性不断增强。 尤其值得注意的是，今年A股市值格局的变化，不仅源于市场预期的转向，更有扎实的业绩作为支撑。 2025年上半年，创业板、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence in stock performance between traditional "old" stocks, favored by older investors, and "new" stocks in technology sectors, particularly AI and semiconductor industries, highlighting a shift in market dynamics this year [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - As of September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 14.02% year-to-date, with technology sectors like SW Communication and SW Electronics showing remarkable gains of 103% and 93% respectively, while traditional sectors like SW Coal and SW Food & Beverage have declined by 1.8% and 0.8% [2][3]. - The performance of individual stocks reflects this trend, with tech stocks such as Cambrian (688256.SH) seeing a year-to-date increase of 105%, while many traditional stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) have experienced declines, with a drop of 3.16% [4][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The "new" stocks, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, have become the main drivers of market performance, with companies like NewEase (300502.SZ) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) achieving year-to-date increases of 329% and 253% respectively [4][6]. - In contrast, the "old" stocks, including major players in the liquor and real estate sectors, have struggled, with 16 out of 21 major liquor stocks experiencing declines this year, and several stocks like Haitian Flavoring (603288.SH) and Gree Electric (000651.SH) seeing significant drops of 12.7% and 8.68% respectively [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Perspectives - The article highlights a growing debate between traditional value investors, who favor stable cash flows and dividends from established companies, and more aggressive investors focused on growth potential in technology sectors [8][9]. - Current market sentiment suggests that while technology stocks are experiencing a bullish trend driven by AI and other innovations, there are concerns about overvaluation and potential corrections in the future [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence in stock market performance between traditional "old stocks" (represented by sectors like liquor, real estate, and coal) and "new stocks" (focused on technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors) in 2023, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - As of September 23, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 14.02%, with technology sectors like SW Communication and SW Electronics showing remarkable gains of 103% and 93% respectively, while traditional sectors like SW Coal and SW Food & Beverage have declined by 1.82% and 0.78% [2][3]. - The article notes that many traditional blue-chip stocks have underperformed, with 16 out of 21 stocks in the SW liquor sector experiencing price declines this year, including a 3.16% drop in Kweichow Moutai [5][6]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Notable "new stocks" include Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH), which has seen a price increase of 105.22%, and other companies in the AI sector like NewEase (300502.SZ) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), with annual gains of 329% and 253% respectively [4][6]. - In contrast, several "old stocks" such as Haitian Flavoring (603288.SH) and Gree Electric (000651.SZ) have reported declines of 12.68% and 6.96% respectively, despite some of these companies showing double-digit profit growth in the first half of the year [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy and Market Sentiment - The article highlights a growing divide between "old stock" investors, who favor value investing based on stable cash flows and dividends, and "new stock" investors, who are more focused on growth potential in technology sectors [9][10]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a trend-driven investment approach, with younger investors and quantitative funds favoring short-term trends, leading to extreme sector divergence [10].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant divergence between traditional "old stocks" (represented by sectors like liquor, real estate, and coal) and "new stocks" (focused on technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors), with the latter showing substantial gains while the former declines [1][3][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 14.02% year-to-date, with technology sectors like SW Communication and SW Electronics seeing gains of 103% and 93% respectively, while traditional sectors like SW Coal and SW Food & Beverage have declined by 1.82% and 0.78% [1][2]. - The performance of individual stocks reflects this trend, with tech stocks like Cambrian (688256.SH) doubling in price, while major liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) have seen a decline of 3.16% [3][5]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The "new stocks" or "small stocks" have shown remarkable growth, with companies like Xinji Technology (300502.SZ) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) experiencing year-to-date increases of 329% and 253% respectively, driven by the AI computing wave [3][5]. - In contrast, the "old stocks" have struggled, with 16 out of 21 major liquor stocks experiencing declines, and several blue-chip stocks like Haitian Flavoring (603288.SH) and Gree Electric (000651.SZ) also showing negative performance [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Perspectives - The divide between "old stocks" and "new stocks" has sparked debates within the investment community, with traditional investors advocating for value investing based on cash flow and safety margins, while tech investors focus on growth potential and disruptive technologies [6][7]. - Current market dynamics suggest that the tech sector is seen as a trend-driven investment, supported by policies favoring AI and computing power, while traditional value investment strategies are becoming less effective, leading to extreme sector divergence [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the humanoid robot industry is expected to experience an upward trend, potentially reshaping the industrial ecosystem within the next 5-10 years [1] - Humanoid robots possess strong cross-scenario adaptability and the ability to implement AI, making them a strategic focal point in the new technological revolution [1] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to achieve large-scale penetration in various fields such as industrial manufacturing and medical rehabilitation [1] Group 2 - Automotive parts companies are highlighted for their strong customer expansion capabilities and mass production abilities, which provide them with a significant competitive advantage [1] - Domestic automotive manufacturers are increasingly entering the humanoid robot sector, allowing automotive parts companies to leverage their existing customer relationships to quickly integrate into the robot supply chain [1]

展望"十五五"，虽然很多成熟产业和夕阳产业面临转型压力，但科技革命带来的经济增长正为长期牛市 注入核心动力。 这一增长将以股价和指数上涨的方式实现。 对中国资本市场而言，2024年9月24日是一个真正的"分水岭"，其意义应超过1999年的"5·19"与2005年 股权分置改革。自此以后，人们普遍认为长期牛市已上升为国家意志，资本市场也被正式纳入宏观调 控。 如今，中国资本市场牛市格局基本形成，但深层次问题依然存在：长期牛市需要什么样的经济基本面和 货币流动性环境支持？需要怎样的监管环境和社会认知环境？如何让"中国牛"跨越"十四五"、穿越"十 五五"？ "十五五"牛市的经济基本面条件 任何国家的资本市场牛市都不能脱离经济基本面，但是我们不能简单把支持牛市的经济基本面等同于 GDP高增长。 有的增长模式，虽然GDP增速很快，但是大部分增长成果与资本市场无关。还有的增长模式，甚至以牺 牲资本市场投资者为代价。这样的经济基本面，就算增长数字再好看，也不会带来长期牛市。 有的经济体，虽然GDP增速不高，但其大部分增长成果能转变为投资者回报，自然能够有牛市。 除了宽松的货币流动性，利率也在不断下降，中国应继续大幅降息并认 ...