经济范式转换

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从科技革命到AI竞争:大国崛起的关键变量
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-07-12 00:12
Group 1: Historical Logic of Technological Evolution - The rise of global powers has historically been linked to technological revolutions, with a focus on the evolution of global scientific centers [3][4] - The "Takahashi phenomenon" indicates that global scientific centers have shifted approximately every 80 years, following a pattern from Italy to the US [3][4] - Technological innovation is a precursor to economic, political, and cultural dominance, serving as the first step in the rise of great powers [3][4] Group 2: Economic Logic of Paradigm Shifts - Technological revolutions do not automatically lead to industrial revolutions; a significant leap is required for commercialization and industrialization [5][6] - General Purpose Technologies (GPT) are crucial for achieving economic paradigm shifts, enabling the transition from technological to industrial revolutions [6][7] - Historical examples illustrate that the widespread application of GPT is key to economic transformation and societal advancement [6][7] Group 3: Political Logic of Power Dynamics - Economic and technological advancements lead to the concentration of international power, facilitating the rise of great powers [7][8] - The emergence of new paradigms can shift global power centers, with GPT playing a significant role in this transition [9][10] - Infrastructure development is essential for leveraging technological changes, as seen in historical examples of maritime and rail advancements [11][12] Group 4: Era of AI International Competition - The current global landscape features multiple technological and economic centers, complicating competitive dynamics [16][17] - The transition from platform economy to intelligent economy marks a significant shift, with countries like China seizing opportunities in emerging technologies [17][18] - The integration of new technologies is reshaping traditional industries and creating new economic ecosystems, emphasizing the importance of collaborative development [18]