1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, with the overall demand recovery in the peak season falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory continuously increasing, factory inventory continuously decreasing, and port inventory continuously increasing. Crude oil prices are strengthening, providing short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [8][9][10]. - The factors affecting the market include the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support; however, there is insufficient demand for high - priced products, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 280,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.90%. The output of sample enterprises is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [9]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 144 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, the factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][36]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the estimated maintenance loss volume trends from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio trends from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: The report presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report presents the trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year infrastructure investment completion rate from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume trends of excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report presents the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate trends from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the construction rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report presents the construction rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [107][108].