Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate significantly following the crude oil price in the near term, and investors are advised to participate with caution while paying attention to the developments in the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week-on-week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][5] - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9% [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased 4 percentage points to 8% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [1][5] - Last week, refineries in Shandong resumed production, and the continuous price increase drove up the downstream stocking sentiment, resulting in a significant increase in shipments. The national shipment volume increased 19.86% to 156,300 tons week-on-week, at a relatively low level [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and asphalt factory inventories have increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. There are reports that Vitol China is offering Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel, significantly smaller than the $13 per barrel discount in December 2025. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. Additionally, the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel will affect the supply of Iranian raw materials, and the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1] - China imports relatively little Iranian asphalt, and imported asphalt from the Middle East such as the UAE and Iraq accounts for about half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production [1] - Henan Fengli plans to resume production this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the supply and demand of asphalt will both increase [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2604 fell 4.78% to 3,746 yuan per ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,523 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 4,153 yuan per ton. The trading volume decreased by 24,741 to 54,677 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong fell to 3,720 yuan per ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to -26 yuan per ton, at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, individual refineries in the north resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate rebounded 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week-on-week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared to the period from January to October 2025, but it was still negative [5] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transport industry decreased 6.0% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a situation of cumulative year-on-year negative growth [5] - From January to December 2025, the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -1.1% from January to November 2025 [5] - As of the week of March 6, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased 4 percentage points to 8% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [5] - As of the week of March 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased 1.3 percentage points to 17.7% compared to the week of February 27. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and asphalt factory inventories have increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the rise of crude oil prices in the near future, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][19] - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons, an increase of 13.0%, and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons, a decrease of 1.9% [3] - Henan Fengli plans to resume production this week, and the asphalt开工率 will increase slightly [3] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of March 6, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工率 increased by 4 percentage points to 8% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3][29] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, from January to December, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [29] 3.3 Market Conditions - The asphalt 2604 contract showed a strong upward trend [4] - The asphalt/原油 ratio dropped significantly to 5.67 [12] - The mainstream market price in Shandong region rose to 3,570 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 201 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [15] 3.4 Shipping Volume - As of the week of March 6, refineries in Shandong region resumed production, and the continuous price increase promoted the downstream stocking sentiment. The shipping volume increased significantly, and the national shipping volume increased by 19.86% week - on - week to 156,300 tons, at a relatively low level [3][24] 3.5 Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.7% compared with the week of February 27. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has not fully resumed production, and the asphalt plant inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [33] 3.6 Raw Materials - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. There is news that the large trader Vitol China quotes a discount of $5/barrel for Venezuelan crude oil, which is significantly smaller than the discount of $13/barrel in December 2025. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. In addition, due to the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the raw material supply from Iran will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [3] - China imports relatively little asphalt from Iran. Imports of asphalt from the Middle - East such as the UAE and Iraq account for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared with China's asphalt production [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Some refineries will resume asphalt production this week, and the low - level asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1][4] - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt dropped 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. After the price increase in Shandong, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is necessary to pay attention to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [1] - Market sentiment: The US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices have rebounded [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract rose 0.51% to 3,373 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,324 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,374 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4,115 to 16,054 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 163 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased 0.2 percentage point compared with that from January to November. The recovery of the medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The oil price lacks support, and the asphalt market has weak supply and demand. The short - term market is cautious, and it is advisable to wait and see [6] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2602, the opening price was 2954 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2960 yuan/ton, the highest was 2997 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2943 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.92%, and the trading volume was 256,000 lots. For BU2603, the opening price was 2957 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2973 yuan/ton, the highest was 3008 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2957 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.68%, and the trading volume was 71,400 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Shandong and North China increased, while those in East China and Sichuan - Chongqing decreased, and prices in other regions were generally stable. Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to continue producing asphalt after a short resumption. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly. Cold air affects most parts of China. Road demand in the Northeast and Northwest has stagnated, but there is still rush - repair demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to be stable [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 2880 - 3370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous workday. International oil prices rebounded, asphalt futures rose during the session, and the reduction of spot resource circulation in some areas led to an increase in traders' spot quotes [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The shipping price of the main refinery in Zhejiang was lowered this week, and the CIF price in Jiangsu is expected to drop to around 2950 yuan/ton, suppressing the market price, and the ex - factory trucking price in East China also decreased [7] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and both supply and demand are expected to increase during the traditional peak season in September. The overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is a negative factor. In September 2025, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41% year - on - year increase) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17% month - on - month increase). From January to September 2025, the total production of refinery asphalt is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18% year - on - year increase) [4]. - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. The demand release is less than expected. Some demand in the north has slightly increased, and the market is optimistic about September's demand. In the south, the reduction of rainfall has led to a slight recovery in demand. It is expected that the peak season will not be prosperous this year [4]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. This week, the asphalt factory inventory has shown an accumulation trend, especially in the northeast. The social inventory has shown a destocking trend, especially in Shandong [4]. - **Cost**: It is oscillating. International oil prices first fell and then rebounded due to factors such as changes in US crude oil inventory, OPEC+ production plans, and geopolitical events [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with both supply and demand increasing in September, and the general trend follows crude oil fluctuations [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity [4]. Price - There are charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of asphalt in the main regions from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. Supply - **Production Scheduling Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly production scheduling and output of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][35]. - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [45][46][47]. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, with the overall demand recovery in the peak season falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory continuously increasing, factory inventory continuously decreasing, and port inventory continuously increasing. Crude oil prices are strengthening, providing short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [8][9][10]. - The factors affecting the market include the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support; however, there is insufficient demand for high - priced products, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 280,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.90%. The output of sample enterprises is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [9]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 144 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, the factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][36]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the estimated maintenance loss volume trends from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio trends from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: The report presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report presents the trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year infrastructure investment completion rate from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume trends of excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report presents the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate trends from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the construction rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report presents the construction rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent inventory accumulation rate in the asphalt industry chain has slowed down. If the inventory level can remain low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the medium - to - long - term supply side, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450 [4][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro and geopolitical factors. At the beginning of April, due to global trade war disturbances, crude oil prices dropped significantly, causing the asphalt cost to collapse. The domestic pessimistic sentiment spread, and the price of the main asphalt contract followed the sharp decline of crude oil prices to around 3300 yuan/ton. In mid - April, the intensification of US sanctions on Iran and the OPEC+ over - production compensation plan led to a rebound in crude oil prices, driving the repair of asphalt costs. The asphalt price gradually recovered with the support of cost repair and demand improvement. In late April, the trade war situation continued, and there were disagreements within OPEC+ regarding production adjustments, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate more violently. In April, the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.5 US dollars/barrel. The basis generally recovered, and currently, both the spot and futures valuations are high [3][9][29]. 1.2 Market Outlook - The recent slowdown in inventory accumulation in the asphalt industry chain. If the inventory level remains low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the supply side in the second half of the year, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450 [4]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Range - bound shock. - Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil is expected to narrow. - Options: If holding long positions, a strategy of selling call options can be adopted [5][34]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - Repeated with the content in the preface summary, in April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro and geopolitical factors, affecting asphalt prices and costs, and the basis generally recovered with high spot and futures valuations [9]. 2.2 Supply Overview - In March, domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons (9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 140,000 tons (6%). From January to March 2025, domestic refinery asphalt production was 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,000 tons. In April, the planned asphalt production of domestic refineries was 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons (1%) and a year - on - year decrease of 160,000 tons (7%). In May, the planned asphalt production of local refineries is expected to be around 1.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 150,000 tons (15%) and a year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons (16%). In the first quarter of 2025, domestic asphalt imports were 670,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of about 20%. In March 2025, asphalt imports were about 260,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 40,000 tons; exports in February were about 60,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons [15][16][17]. 2.3 Demand Overview - In April, as the temperature warmed up, the overall demand for asphalt continued to recover slowly. At the refinery end, the shipment volume increased month - on - month, and the shipment level was higher than that of the same period last year. Downstream demand also recovered slowly but was still lower than last year's level. The capacity utilization rate of road modified asphalt increased slightly, rising about 2 percentage points compared to March. Modified asphalt enterprises resumed production and increased production, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rise by 2 percentage points. The demand for waterproofing membranes remained stable. In the north, the good weather supported the rigid demand; in the south, the intermittent rainy weather limited the demand growth [23]. 2.4 Inventory and Valuation - The inventory accumulation rate in the industry chain slowed down. In April, the refinery inventory remained stable compared to March, with the refinery inventory rate maintained at 30% - 31%. The social inventory rate increased slightly month - on - month. In terms of cost, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply in April, affecting asphalt costs. The basis generally recovered, and currently, both the spot and futures valuations are high [28][29]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The demand in the short - term and expected to improve, and the inventory accumulation rate in the asphalt industry chain has slowed down. If the inventory level can remain low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the medium - to - long - term supply side, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450. Strategy recommendations include unilateral range - bound shock, narrowing the asphalt - crude oil spread, and if holding long positions, adopting a strategy of selling call options [34].