1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is flat, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3430 - 3476 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains at a high level, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production is 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The sample enterprises' output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase from the previous week, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the previous week. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous day. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 19, the Shandong spot price was 3550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 97 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week. The in - plant inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase from the previous week. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease from the previous week. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions have decreased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, weekly output, and weekly开工率 of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: It shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: It presents the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - Related**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][89]. - **Mechanical Equipment - Related**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **By - Use Classification**: It presents the historical trends of modified asphalt, construction asphalt, and other types of asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [108].

原油：等待美俄会谈落地，油价低位震荡 正信期货原油周报 20250818 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 5 原油供需平衡总结 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国CPI符合预期，降息预期升温。CME"美联储观察" ：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为15.4%，降息25个基点 的概率为84.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为42.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为51.5%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，8月15俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普的会谈落地。特朗普表示，与普京的会晤"极其富有成效"，但 同时强调，结束冲突的协议尚未最终达成。总体谈判气氛积极，但没有实质内容。美国方面，美国至8月15日当周石油钻井总数 412口，前值411口。欧佩克方面，OPEC+八国于达成9月增产54.8万桶/日的决议，全面退出自2023年起八个成员国实施的220万 桶/日减产协议。7月份欧佩克+原油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. Russia extended the gasoline export ban. The market is waiting for the US - Russia summit in Alaska. Trump is optimistic about the success of the talks, but the US does not rule out sanctions. Putin positively evaluated the efforts made by the US, and the economic envoy of the Kremlin expects it may promote the restart of Russia - US relations. Short - term oil prices face significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to move in the range of 485 - 495, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, far exceeding economists' expectations. Russia may extend the full ban on gasoline exports until September. Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, but achieving peace may require a second meeting including Ukrainian leaders. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $67.94 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.12 per barrel. The basis was 19.48 yuan/barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, rated as neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 0.941 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.036 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 0.275 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.045 million barrels. As of August 14, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, rated as bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, rated as bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, rated as bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump believes Putin will reach an agreement in the meeting, estimating a 25% risk of failure. The "Trump - Putin meeting" on Friday is seen as paving the way for a second meeting. The US temporarily waived some sanctions on Russia for the meeting, but also warned of possible sanctions. Russia showed a relatively positive attitude [5]. - Fed Chair candidate David Zervos believes the Fed is late in approving interest rate cuts and advocates for radical easing policies to prevent labor market slowdown and create 1 million jobs [5]. - Bank of America maintains a bearish forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025, expecting an average price of $63.50 per barrel and a possible drop below $60. It predicts an oil supply surplus of 0.89 million barrels per day from July 2025 to June 2026, which may lead to a global oil inventory increase of about 100 million barrels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved; the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are reduced, and the risk of trade tariff issues rises. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $65.63, $62.65, 490.5 yuan, and $68.46 respectively, with changes of - $0.49 (- 0.74%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - 3.80 yuan (- 0.77%), and + $0.48 (+ 0.71%) compared to the previous day [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils changed by - $0.65 (- 0.96%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - $1.13 (- 1.64%), - $1.01 (- 1.56%), and - $1.16 (- 1.69%) respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [20].

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 沥青日报 | 第一部分 | | 相关数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2510（主力） | 3503 | 3506 | - 3 | -0.09% | | BU2511 | 3460 | 3466 | - 6 | -0.17% | | BU2512 | 3406 | 3406 | 0 | 0.00% | | SC2509 | 489.5 | 495.2 | -5.7 | -1.15% | | Brent首行 | 65.91 | 66.99 | -1.1 | -1.61% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 22.5 | 22.3 | 0.2 | 0.84% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 0.3 | 2.42% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 73750 | 73750 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.4372%，环比减少1.32个百分点， 全国样本企业出货28.03万吨，环比增加2.90%,样本企业产量为55.8万吨，环比减少3.79%, 样本企业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比增加1.99%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。 下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.7%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为1 ...

Core Viewpoint - In July, China's naphtha production increased by 6.45% month-on-month to 16.8574 million tons, driven by higher operating rates at domestic refineries, but a decrease in production is expected in August to around 16.7 million tons due to potential narrowing of crude oil processing volume [1][4]. Group 1: Naphtha Production - In July, China's naphtha production reached 16.8574 million tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.45% and a year-on-year growth of 6.44% [1]. - From January to July, total naphtha production was 111.9607 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.39% [1]. - The increase in July's naphtha production was primarily due to higher operating rates at domestic refineries and the commencement of new production facilities [1][3]. Group 2: Refinery Operations - Domestic refineries experienced varying degrees of increased operating rates due to the recovery from previous maintenance, with Yanshan Petrochemical halting repairs in mid-July, leading to an average operating rate increase of 1.59 percentage points to 82.57% [3]. - Despite some refineries undergoing maintenance, others like Qirun Petrochemical and Haike Ruilin resumed operations, resulting in an average operating rate increase of 0.46 percentage points to 51.33% for Shandong independent refineries [3]. - The overall crude oil processing volume in July rose by 4.96% month-on-month to 63.3238 million tons, significantly boosting naphtha production [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In August, naphtha production is expected to decrease to around 16.7 million tons, as crude oil prices are anticipated to fluctuate with a downward trend due to potential demand decline and increased supply [4]. - The operating rates for major refineries are expected to remain stable between 80%-85%, while Shandong independent refineries are likely to maintain a low operating rate around 50% due to ongoing maintenance [4]. - Overall, the crude oil processing volume is projected to see a slight month-on-month decline in August, with limited reduction in naphtha production expected [4].

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年7月份国内沥青总计划排产量为253.9万吨，环比增幅5.9%, 同比增幅23.4%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.2761%，环比增加0.359个百分 点，全国样本企业出货24.9万吨，环比减少4.67%,样本企业产量为57.2万吨，环比增加 1.06%,样本企业装置检修量预估为57.4万吨，环比减少1.37%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供 应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为32.8%，环比增加0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - In the peak season, the single - week crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, but there are no new negatives in the market. Oil prices are still supported and are expected to have an upward space. It is necessary to continue to track consumption and Saudi supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $67.35, closing at $66.03, with a high of $68.16, a low of $64.38, a decline of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 118.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $70.50, closing at $69.23, with a high of $71.53, a low of $67.71, a decline of 1.98%, and a trading volume of 177.53 million lots. SC's opening price was 517.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 512.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.4, a low of 511.3, a decline of 3.70%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The three major institutions' July reports show little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, except for Kazakhstan, seven other countries have completed compensatory production cuts according to OPEC. There are differences in the prediction of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production among the three institutions this month. IEA expects Saudi production to reach 9.8 million barrels per day, while OPEC and EIA expect around 9.3 million barrels per day. High - frequency data shows that US refined oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, and the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel has declined [6] 3.2 Industry News - Iran has no plan to negotiate with the US currently [8] - Turkey hopes to start a new and dynamic stage for the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline [8] - Barclays maintains its forecast of Brent crude oil price at $72 per barrel in 2025 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [8] - The EU cancels the license for the Czech Republic to import oil from Russia [8] - The UK sanctions Russia's oil export and intelligence agencies, and together with the EU, lowers the "price cap" of Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts, with data sources from CFTC, EIA, wind, Bloomberg, etc. [10][11][18]