需求不及预期，10月内贸船燃市场价格稳步回落 10月船用油市场价格整体呈高位回落走势。截止到10月29日，我国内贸船用180CST供船均价为5042元/ 吨，较上月均价上涨34元/吨或0.68%；柴油供船均价为6567元/吨，较上月均价下跌181元/吨或2.68%。 10月因原料端呈现回落，厂家生产成本收窄，带动批发出库价格下跌。此外，国庆假期期间市场库存消 化缓慢，节后下游补货积极性偏弱，对厂家批发出库价格形成利空。因此整体来看，国内主要代表市场 批发出库价格稳步下跌，月末收于4670-4850元/吨，环比回落130-150元/吨。 需求平平，内贸船用油柴油价格连续下跌 【导语】10月船用油原料供应量增加，价格稳步回落，带动国内重油供船价格下跌。后市来看，11月船 运市场需求回归平稳，预计内贸船用油市场均价或继续回落。 本月受到原油以及原料供应因素影响，月内调油混兑原料基本呈现下跌走势。与9月末相比较，各厂家 原料价格累计下跌空间在200-280元/吨不等。成本端波动对出库价格形成直接利空，批发出库价格下跌 为主，仅10月下旬因国际原油宽幅反弹，批发出库价格短暂回涨。截至10月29日，全国180CST批发出 ...

俄罗斯最大的石油企业俄罗斯石油公司的油轮（Reuters） 在10月23日的交易中，欧美原油期货价格一度较前一日上涨6%。之前一直进口俄罗斯原油的中国和印 度似乎也出现了暂停进口的动向。不过关于今后原油价格走势，有分析师预测称，原油价格的上涨只是 暂时的…… 受美国政府将俄罗斯石油企业加入经济制裁对象的措施影响，在10月23日的交易中，欧美原油期货价格 一度较前一日上涨6%。之前一直进口俄罗斯原油的中国和印度似乎也出现了暂停进口的动向。 原油价格创两周以来新高 国际能源署（IEA）的数据显示，从2024年俄罗斯原油的出口目的地来看，中国占比最高，接近40%， 其次是印度，占比接近30%。目前，这两大需求国似乎也出现了暂缓购买俄罗斯原油的动向。 路透社援引多位相关人士的说法称，中国石油天然气集团（PetroChina）及中国石油化工集团 （Sinopec）等4家公司已暂停购买俄罗斯原油。 美国咨询公司普莱斯期货集团(Price Futures Group)的菲尔·弗林(Phil Flynn)指出："与受制裁的俄罗斯企 业进行交易的中国企业可能面临被欧美银行拒之门外、失去美元使用渠道等严峻局面"。 印度企业也一样 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (931233) increased by 0.19%, with notable gains in China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 3.48%, First Tractor Company (00038) up 2.85%, and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) up 2.21% [1] - The energy sector holds significant weight in the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, with oil and gas equipment and services, along with oil and gas producers, accounting for over 10% combined, and the coal industry exceeding 4% [1] - The National Securities Free Cash Flow Index (980092) decreased by 0.03%, with stocks showing mixed performance; Dayang Electric (002249) led with an 8.57% increase, followed by Hengdian East Magnetic (002056) up 5.46% and Taiji Industry (600667) up 5.42% [1] Group 2 - International crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude oil for December delivery rising by $3.29 per barrel, or 5.62%, to $61.79 per barrel, and Brent crude oil for December delivery increasing by $3.40 per barrel, or 5.43%, to $65.99 per barrel [2] - Geopolitical risks are expected to have a diminishing marginal impact in the medium to long term, with market dynamics returning to fundamentals; however, international production pressure remains a key factor influencing oil price trends [2] - Recent sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical rumors regarding Venezuela have driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude returning to $65, reflecting a cumulative increase of over $5 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a significant increase in crude oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a two-week high of $66.0 to $66.4 per barrel and WTI exceeding $62 per barrel, both up by 6% [4][6] - The sanctions target major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, freezing their assets in the U.S. and aiming to limit Russia's ability to fund its military operations [6][7] - Analysts express a cautious outlook on the sustainability of the price increase, with predictions that prices may revert to around $60 per barrel due to potential supply surplus from new and existing production sources [7] Group 2 - There are indications that China and India, which previously imported significant amounts of Russian oil, are now pausing their purchases, with major companies like PetroChina and Sinopec halting imports [7] - Concerns about the impact of sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies are raised, as they may face difficulties in transactions with sanctioned Russian firms, potentially losing access to U.S. dollar channels [7] - Natural gas prices in Europe have not been significantly affected, with the TTF index rising only slightly, indicating limited concern over Russian natural gas supply [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under increasing pressure as refineries have increased production recently. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity increased, and the output of sample enterprises also increased [8]. - The demand side is weak. The current demand is below the historical average level, with the construction of various types of asphalt and related products showing low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. Although the daily processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased, the rising crude oil price is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3228 - 3270 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The refineries' increased production has raised supply pressure, and it may further increase next week. The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment of sample enterprises all changed, with the device maintenance volume decreasing [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt downstream products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong decreased by 18.59%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the cost in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The asphalt futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract in the 3228 - 3270 range [10]. - Other factors: The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the 01 contract price is below the MA20, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts generally increased compared with the previous values, with different ranges of increase. The inventory situation also changed, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing. The operating rates of different regions and products also showed various trends [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. - Spread: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, providing comprehensive information for analyzing the market relationship [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which are important for understanding the profitability of the asphalt industry [39][42]. - Supply - side analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, crude oil price and production volume, refinery production, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume, comprehensively reflecting the supply situation of the asphalt market [45][47][50][53][56][59][62]. - Inventory analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, which are crucial for understanding the inventory status of the asphalt market [65][69][72]. - Import and export analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions, comprehensively reflecting the demand situation of the asphalt market [81][84][87][91][96][99][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt in different months, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [106].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market has experienced a significant downturn in October, breaking the range-bound trend of the third quarter, with Brent crude futures dropping to a low of $61.5 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling below $58 per barrel, marking the lowest levels since early June this year, with a cumulative decline of over 5% for the month [1] Market Dynamics - Short-term uncertainties in international trade may lead to market sentiment fluctuations, impacting oil prices [1] - On a macro level, the global economy is showing weak recovery without entering recession, and the Federal Reserve's preemptive rate cuts provide some liquidity support for oil but fail to reverse the bearish fundamentals in the oil market [1] Geopolitical and Supply-Demand Factors - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza has reduced geopolitical risk support for oil prices [1] - OPEC+ continues to push for increased oil production, leading to greater supply-side pressure, while the demand side faces seasonal declines, indicating a growing oversupply situation in the oil market, which will exert downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%,同比 增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.0326%，环比减少1.14个百分点，全国样 本企业出货22.13万吨，环比减少29.38%,样本企业产量为61.8万吨，环比减少2.98%,样本企业 装置检修量预估为62.5万吨，环比增加1.96%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减 少供给压力。 3 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.5%，环比减少0.06个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. Trump's tariff threat on China will cause short - term oil prices to continue to show a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global or regional crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,553 million barrels per day, an increase of 234 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have different views on demand. EIA, OPEC, and IEA have either increased or maintained their forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025, with an overall increase compared to 2024 [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: In the week ending October 3, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels, while the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ eight countries agreed to increase the daily crude oil production by 137,000 barrels in November, and the IEA pointed out that the crude oil market may shift from a tight balance to a slight surplus in the future [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, and a Russian refinery was attacked, which is expected to take about a month to resume operations [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the October meeting [3]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. Short - term oil prices will be weak and volatile [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Change Review - **Prices**: SC crude oil, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and other major oil product prices all declined this week, with declines ranging from 2.62% to 4.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: US + European + Singapore oil product inventories, Chinese oil product inventories, and other data have changed to varying degrees. For example, US gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 4.66% [5]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Chinese and US refineries have increased, while the operating rate of Japanese refineries has decreased [5]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production decreased by 0.76% [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: This week, oil prices showed a weak decline. Factors such as the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and Trump's tariff threat have led to a bearish sentiment in the market [9]. - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: The month - spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [22]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [30][40]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - **OPEC**: In August 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased compared to July [59]. - **Non - OPEC**: The production of non - OPEC countries also increased [61]. - **US**: As of the week ending October 3, US domestic crude oil production increased to 13.629 million barrels per day [84]. - **Inventory** - **US**: US commercial inventory increased, and Cushing inventory decreased [85]. - **Northwest Europe and Singapore**: Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [94]. - **China**: Some Chinese oil product inventories and port inventories have changed [104]. - **Demand** - **US**: Gasoline implicit demand rebounded, and refinery operating rate increased slightly [111]. - **China**: The refinery capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [121]. - **China's Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of major refineries and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined [129]. - **Macro - finance**: The Fed cut interest rates, and the US dollar index rebounded [142]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [151].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of oil production increases of at least 137,000 barrels per day in the upcoming meeting, aiming to regain market share as oil prices continue to rise [1] Group 1: Production Adjustments - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, increasing production quotas by over 2.5 million barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 2.4% of global demand [1] - The eight member countries of OPEC+ plan to fully cancel a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September and have initiated the process to cancel another cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting in October [3] - OPEC+ has approved the UAE to increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day from April to September [3] Group 2: Market Impact - Oil prices have fluctuated between $60 and $70 per barrel since OPEC began increasing production in April, with a recent spike to over $70 per barrel due to disruptions in Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone attacks [2] - OPEC+ members collectively implemented a peak production cut of 5.85 million barrels per day, which included voluntary cuts and reductions from member countries [2] Group 3: Upcoming Meetings - An online meeting is scheduled for October 5, where OPEC+ will determine the production plan for November, with discussions indicating an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day [1][3] - The final decision regarding the production increase has not yet been finalized, as many OPEC+ members are already operating at full capacity [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].