Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Oil and fats [1] - Report date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market quotes: Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil trader quotes: third - grade rapeseed oil 05+120 (5 - 6), first - grade rapeseed oil 05+860; East China soybean oil basis quotes: first - grade soybean oil spot Y05+270, fixed price 8870, far - month prices vary by period; Dongguan palm oil quotes are stable with a slight decline [7] - Market analysis: Night - session crude oil strengthened due to the Middle East situation, and domestic oils stopped falling. Palm oil prices are supported by high energy prices and favorable biodiesel processing profits. For soybean oil, quarantine issues may slow down arrivals from March to April, leading to continued inventory reduction and potential basis price increases. Rapeseed oil's near - term supply shows no significant increase, with difficult spot market pick - up. In the short term, oils will fluctuate at high levels, and prices may correct if the macro situation cools [8] Group 3: Industry News - Palm oil production forecasts: Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 19.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous forecast [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Crop production and export data: The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast remains at 178 million tons, and the Argentine soybean production forecast remains at 47 million tons, with a neutral - to - downward adjustment tendency. In March 2026, Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to be 16.32 million tons, a 3.8% increase from March 2025 [19] - Market impact: The agricultural futures market has not fully felt the impact of the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, and the cost of agricultural production inputs has been affected by the fluctuations in oil and gas prices [19]

Group 1 - The investment rating for both cotton and sugar is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that for cotton, short - term market is affected by Middle - East situation, with a wide - range oscillation, and in the long - term, there is support and potential upside; for sugar, due to various factors such as regional conflicts, policy expectations, and inventory and production conditions, the market has many uncertainties and the trend is oscillatory [1] Group 3 Research View - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.99% to 65.26 cents/pound, Zhengzhou cotton's main contract fell 0.68% to 15320 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 27883 lots to 721,700 lots. The 3128B spot price index was 16430 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Overseas geopolitical conflicts and Trump's statements affect market expectations. The US cotton futures price has moved up. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures are oscillating weakly, with a stronger night - session. The textile and clothing export data from January to February are good. In the short - term, the market is affected by the Middle - East situation, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the expected difference in cotton planting area [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 444,600 tons of sugar in the first week of March, with a daily average of 88,900 tons, an 8% decrease compared to the daily average in March last year. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing factories have all decreased. The raw sugar futures price has fallen from a high. In the domestic market, the sugar price has fluctuated with crude oil. There are many differences and concerns in the market, and the market trend is still oscillatory [1] Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 60, down 5; the main contract basis is 1413, up 66. The Xinjiang spot price is 16556 yuan/ton, up 91, and the national spot price is 16733 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 15, down 8; the main contract basis is 41, down 43. The Nanning spot price is 5440 yuan/ton, down 80, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5450 yuan/ton, down 70 [2] Market Information - On March 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11950, an increase of 303 from the previous trading day, with 790 valid forecasts [3] - On March 10, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 16556 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 16755 yuan/ton in Henan, 16767 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 16823 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [3] - On March 10, the comprehensive load of yarn was 52.6, up 0.9 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 19.2, down 0.8; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 59.4, up 5.3; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 26.3, down 2 [3] - On March 10, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5440 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [3] - On March 10, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 15930, an increase of 982 from the previous trading day, with 1120 valid forecasts [4] Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price indices [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is high in the short - term, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the inventory shows a pattern of continuous accumulation in social and factory inventories and continuous depletion in port inventories. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil, and it is expected that the asphalt futures will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2606 contract oscillating between 3614 - 3706 [8][9][10] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average levels. The overall demand is currently lower than the historical average [9] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9] - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bullish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2606 contract oscillating between 3614 - 3706 [9][10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of different contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 38 to 3378, a decline of 1.11%; the 03 contract increased by 43 to 3632, an increase of 1.20% [16] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts also changed. For example, the basis of the 06 contract was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20, a decrease of 12.27% [16] - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Social inventory was 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%; factory inventory was 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The operating rates of different types of asphalt and related products showed different changes [18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price differences between different contracts [25] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the prices of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the profitability of asphalt refining [31] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among them [35] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report provides the historical trends of the prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the analysis of asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt, and provides relevant historical trend charts from 2019 to 2026 [41][44] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend, local refinery asphalt output, operating rate, estimated maintenance loss volume, etc., and provides relevant historical trend charts [47][50][53] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes the analysis of exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio, etc., and provides relevant historical trend charts [69][73][76] - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which helps to understand the import and export situation of asphalt [79][82][84] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand, asphalt operating rate, downstream operating conditions, etc.), and provides relevant historical trend charts [85][87][90] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term crude oil price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state. If there is no substantial impact on crude oil exports in the Middle East, with the digestion of geopolitical premiums, as refineries enter the spring maintenance period in March (a low - demand season for global crude oil) and with high global crude oil inventories, crude oil prices may rise first and then fall. The progress of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil price fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the further production increase plan is undetermined and may be adjusted later. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, while the de - stocking of refined oil products is relatively small, resulting in a large increase in overall oil inventories. Due to U.S. trade agreement pressure, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not made substantial progress, and the U.S. and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28, which was counter - attacked by Iran. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, with an oil tanker being hit. Trump said the military action against Iran may last about four weeks, and he has agreed to dialogue with Iran [3] 3.2 Market Review - In February 2026, crude oil prices first declined and then rose, with the closing price hitting a new high for the year. At the beginning of the month, due to the cooling of macro - sentiment, the easing of the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the fading of the cold wave's impact, crude oil prices dropped significantly. As the Iranian situation fluctuated, the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. on Indian goods were reduced from 25% to 18%, and Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. During the Spring Festival, the second - round U.S. - Iran negotiations were uncertain. In the first half of the week, Iran said positive progress was made, but in the second half, the U.S. increased military threats in the Middle East. With concerns about the Middle East situation and a significant reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, overseas crude oil prices continued to rise during the Spring Festival holiday, hitting a new high for the year [7] 3.3 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - Since February, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds has increased. As of the week of February 17, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds decreased by 17,876 contracts to 263,186 contracts, a decrease of 6.36%, but an increase of 6.59% compared to the end of January. The enthusiasm for speculative long - positions in crude oil has been rising since mid - December 2025 and is at a neutral level in recent years. As of February 25, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 907,000 barrels to 2.557 million barrels compared to the end of January 2025, still at a relatively low level [11] 3.4 Crude Oil Production - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the further production increase plan is undetermined. U.S. crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day to 13.702 million barrels per day in the week of February 20 and is near the historical high [15] 3.5 Oil Drilling Rigs - In February, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs decreased slightly. As of the week of February 20, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs was 409, unchanged from the previous week and a decrease of 2 compared to the week of January 30. The slight decline of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased the expectation that low oil prices will limit U.S. crude oil production growth [19] 3.6 U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to U.S. Energy Agency data, as of the week of February 20, U.S. crude oil imports increased by 135,000 barrels per day to 6.659 million barrels per day, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period of previous years; U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 277,000 barrels per day to 4.313 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [23] 3.7 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month. In December, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 26.85% month - on - month to 62.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.10% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly. China's domestic crude oil imports also increased month - on - month and were at the highest level in the same period of previous years. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 9.98% month - on - month to 55.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 4.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rebound slightly [27] 3.8 U.S. Dollar Index - On February 20, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the U.S. PCE price index in December 2025 increased by 2.9% year - on - year, up from 2.8% in the previous period; the PCE price index increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.3% and 0.2% in the previous period. The core PCE price index in December 2025 increased by 3.0% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.9% and 2.8% in the previous period; the core PCE price index increased by 0.4% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3% and 0.2% in the previous period. After the data was released, the expectation of interest rate cuts was postponed to July [31] 3.9 Gasoline Crack Spread - In February, the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased by $13 per barrel and $7 per barrel respectively. The U.S. and European diesel crack spreads increased by $11 per barrel and $4 per barrel respectively [35] 3.10 U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel; it lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. According to the latest U.S. Energy Agency data, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 21.391 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%, and the deviation from the same period last year increased. Among them, the weekly gasoline production decreased by 0.18% to 8.733 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.484 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.47%; the weekly diesel production decreased by 18.05% to 3.895 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4.352 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.47%. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel production led to a 0.89% month - on - month decrease in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [40] 3.11 Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of February 25, U.S. EIA data showed that as of the week of February 20, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15.989 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.481 million barrels, and were 0.77% higher than the five - year average. The inventory increased by 12.05 million barrels in the past four weeks. The Cushing area inventory was reported at 24.899 million barrels, an increase of 881,000 barrels compared with the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, and the inventory increased by 114,000 barrels in the past four weeks. U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 560,000 barrels, and decreased by 2.379 million barrels in the past four weeks. Gasoline inventories are at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years and have started seasonal de - stocking. As of the week of February 20, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022 [44][48] 3.12 Geopolitical Risks - On February 28, local time, the U.S. and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry, eliminate its navy, and prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons. Netanyahu announced that the goal of the military action was to overthrow the Iranian regime. The Israeli military claimed that several Iranian military leaders were killed in the first - round strike, and Iran confirmed the martyrdom of Khamenei. After the U.S. and Israel attacked targets such as the Iranian presidential palace, Iran launched a missile strike on Tel Aviv, and U.S. military bases in the Middle East were also attacked. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the ban on any ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, and many oil tanker owners and traders have suspended transporting crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas through this strait. On March 1, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that if Iran's oil and gas facilities are attacked, all oil and gas facilities in the region will be destroyed. On March 1, Trump said the U.S. had destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian naval vessels and would continue to attack the rest, and the U.S. Central Command said it had destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [50]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate strongly. The outcome of the US - Iran negotiation on March 2nd is uncertain and will have a significant impact on oil prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. OPEC+ will consider increasing daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in April at the March 1st meeting. If the US attacks Iran, Saudi Arabia plans to significantly increase oil production in the short - term [1] - EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, refined oil inventories have decreased slightly, and overall oil inventories have increased significantly. US crude oil inventories have fluctuated greatly in February [1][5] - The US continues to increase military threats in the Middle East and sanctions against Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on more than 30 entities, oil tankers and individuals on the 25th [1] - The third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva ended. Iran's foreign minister said the negotiations had made good progress, with differences but approaching consensus in some areas. Technical negotiations will be held on March 2nd, and the key point of the Iranian geopolitical situation is postponed to next week [1] - Due to US trade agreement pressure, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas [1] - Russia and Ukraine have not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and cease - fire, and both sides are still attacking each other [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.45% to 488.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 470.8 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 494.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1625 to 38,973 lots [2] 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [5] - IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [5] - On the evening of February 25th, US EIA data showed that for the week ending February 20th, US crude oil inventories increased by 15.989 million barrels, expected to increase by 1.481 million barrels, 0.77% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, expected to decrease by 0.56 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 0.252 million barrels, expected to decrease by 1.594 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.881 million barrels [5] 4. Supply - side - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela and Iran [6] - US crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day to 13.702 million barrels per day in the week of February 20th, and US crude oil production is near the historical high [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.391 million barrels per day, a 5.07% increase compared to the same period last year, and the increase compared to the same period last year has increased. Gasoline weekly production decreased by 0.18% to 8.733 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 8.484 million barrels per day, a 1.47% increase compared to the same period last year; diesel weekly production decreased by 18.05% to 3.895 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 4.352 million barrels per day, a 1.47% increase compared to the same period last year. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel led to a 0.89% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report expects crude oil prices to oscillate strongly. The outcome of the US-Iran negotiations is uncertain and has a significant impact on oil prices. Attention should be paid to risk control [1] Summary by Directory 行情分析 - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. OPEC+ will consider increasing daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in April at the meeting on March 1st. If the US strikes Iran, Saudi Arabia plans to significantly increase oil production in the short term [1] - EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, the de-stocking of refined oil is relatively small, and the overall oil product inventories have increased significantly. US crude oil inventories fluctuated greatly in February [1] - The second round of US-Iran negotiations last week was uncertain. Iran said it had made positive progress in the first half of the week, but the US military increased military threats in the Middle East in the second half of the week. The US and Iran will resume negotiations in Geneva on the 26th [1] - Due to pressure from US trade agreements, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and ceasefire [1] 期现行情 - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2604 fell 1.23% to 488.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 482.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 491.4 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 860 to 40,604 lots [2] 基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of February 25th, US EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20th increased by 15.989 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.481 million barrels and 0.77% higher than the five-year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 252,000 barrels [3] 供给端 - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day to 13.702 million barrels per day in the week of February 20th, near the historical high [4] - The four-week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.391 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 5.07%. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel decreased, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to decrease by 0.89% month-on-month [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will experience a short - term strong and volatile trend. The outcome of the US - Iran negotiations is uncertain and has a significant impact on oil prices, so risk control should be noted [1] Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March [1] - As of the week ending February 13, US crude oil inventories decreased significantly more than expected, and refined oil inventories also decreased more than expected, alleviating concerns about oversupply. Winter storms may stimulate heating demand [1] - The second - round US - Iran negotiations are uncertain. There are still differences on key issues, and the US may use force if necessary. A new round of negotiations is scheduled for February 26 in Geneva [1] - Due to US trade agreement pressure, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas [1] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress on core issues, and both sides are still attacking each other [1] 2.期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 fell 0.33% to 488.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 484.8 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 495.9 yuan/ton. The position increased by 2337 to 41463 lots [2] 3.基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending February 13, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.014 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.213 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 4.566 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.095 million barrels [3] - In January, OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [4] - US crude oil production increased by 22,000 barrels per day to 13.735 million barrels per day in the week of February 13 [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.196 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. Gasoline and diesel production increased both weekly and in the four - week average [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量。EIA数据显示，截至2月13日当 周，美国原油库存超预期大幅去库，同时成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存大幅减少。汽柴油 消费均环比增加，另外，冬季风暴再次袭击美国，或将刺激取暖需求，这缓解了供应过剩担忧。上 周美伊第二轮谈判扑朔迷离，前半周伊朗表示取得积极进展，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，双方能够就 一套指导原则达成总体共识，两方仍有一些议题需要进一步谈判，可能促成协议。但后半周美军加 大中东地区军事威胁，白宫新闻秘书表示，美伊谈判"取得一定进展"，但双方在关键议题上仍 "相距甚远"。以色列高级官员称，美国对伊朗发动军事打击的"时间表正在缩短"。特朗普更是 表示伊朗最多只有10到15天时间就核计划达成协议。目前特朗普表示，是否采取行动的决定权在总 统本人手中，并称自己"更愿意达成协议"。但他同时警告，如果无法达成协议，对伊朗及伊朗人 民来说，那将是极其糟糕的一天。美军增加在中东地区的军事威胁。伊朗地缘风险仍有较大不确定 性，伊朗原油产量较大，且位于原油海运要道—霍尔 ...

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: The price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly from 476.1 yuan/barrel to 476.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.15% increase. The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 64.2 dollars/barrel and 69.08 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread strengthened from -0.21 dollars/barrel to -0.09 dollars/barrel, a 57.14% increase. The SC-WTI spread strengthened from 4.67 dollars/barrel to 4.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.57% increase. The Brent-WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.88 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread slightly declined from -8.6 yuan/barrel to -8.7 yuan/barrel, a 1.16% decrease [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: Position data is not provided. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 3,464,000 barrels. The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons to 4,980 tons, and the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 34,710 tons [2]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to the OPEC monthly report on February 11, 2026, OPEC+ member countries' total output in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day to 42.45 million barrels per day, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's output. Specific country changes include: UAE decreased by 14,000 barrels per day to 3.389 million barrels per day; Nigeria decreased by 19,000 barrels per day to 1.478 million barrels per day; Libya decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 1.304 million barrels per day; Algeria decreased by 2,000 barrels per day to 968,000 barrels per day; Venezuela decreased by 87,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day; Iran decreased by 81,000 barrels per day to 3.129 million barrels per day; Iraq increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 4.157 million barrels per day; Saudi Arabia increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 10.086 million barrels per day. Geopolitical events affected supply, such as the explosion of the oil pipeline in Oaxaca, Mexico, and the attack on a refinery in Volgograd, Russia. The Trump administration discussed seizing Iranian oil tankers, which may further restrict Iranian exports [3]. - **Demand Side**: The OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 1.38 million barrels per day and 1.34 million barrels per day respectively, expecting air travel and road traffic to support demand, with the depreciation of the US dollar providing additional support. Actual demand data showed that from February 6 to February 11, 2026, the implied demand for EIA distillate fuel oil production in the US for the week ending February 6 dropped to 5.3961 million barrels per day, a significant decline from the previous value of 5.8043 million barrels per day, reflecting short - term pressure on refined oil demand. India's shift to purchasing US and Venezuelan crude oil may boost regional demand, but overall demand is constrained by refinery disturbances [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Inventory data decreased slightly. From February 6 to February 11, 2026, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.1 million barrels, a decline from the previous value of 21.4 million barrels. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 3,464,000 barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons, indicating a relief of local inventory pressure. However, the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons, indicating inventory accumulation of downstream products [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. On the supply side, OPEC+ production continues to contract, and geopolitical events such as the pipeline explosion in Mexico and the attack on a refinery in Russia intensify supply uncertainty, supporting price increases. On the demand side, although supported by global growth forecasts, the significant decline in US distillate fuel oil demand and the accumulation of refined oil inventories bring downward pressure. The overall inventory decreased slightly, but the limited decline in strategic reserves restricts the price breakthrough space. Considering the changes in supply, demand, and inventory, the slight increase in the SC crude oil main contract reflects the market's concern about supply tightness, but the risk of weak demand suppresses the increase. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - indicators such as the US non - farm payroll data on February 11, 2026, and China's PPI on demand expectations [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the asphalt market are bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, the cost support from crude oil is weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 3300 - 3368 [7][8][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are mostly lower than or close to historical averages, indicating that current demand is lower than historical averages [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8] - **Other Aspects**: The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. On February 9th, the Shandong spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory increased by 5.16% month - on - month, the in - plant inventory decreased by 3.15% month - on - month, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 20.24% month - on - month. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20 [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of most asphalt futures contracts decreased, with the 04 contract closing at 3347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 1.59% compared to the previous value [15] - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis at - 137 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan compared to the previous value [15] - **Some Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads of some contract combinations changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 3 to - 6, a change rate of 100.00% [15] - **Weekly Data**: Weekly inventory, operating rate, output, and other data also showed corresponding changes, such as the social inventory increasing by 5.16% week - on - week, and the national heavy - traffic operating rate decreasing by 4.39% week - on - week [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spreads**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [24][25] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spreads**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratios**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [34][35] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Prices in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2026 [37][38] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40][41] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [43][44][45] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [46][47] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [49][50] - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2026 [52][53] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The report shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [56][58] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [59][60] - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [62][63] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [65][66] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [68][69][71] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and in - plant inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [72][73] - **In - Plant Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [75][76] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82][83] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [84][85] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][92] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [105][106][107] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109][110]