交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年3月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众对92家企业跟踪，2026年3月份国内沥青总排产量为218.7 万吨，环比增加25.1万吨，增幅13.0%，同比下降4.3万吨，降幅1.9%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.0705%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国样本企业 出货13.04万吨，环比减少0.98%,样本企业产量为38.5万吨，环比增加2.67%,样 本企业装置检修量预估为118.9万吨，环比减少10.80%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.4%，环比增加0.03个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --2026年3月原油月度报告 发布日期：2026年3月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 OPEC+同意4月份将石油产量提高20.6万桶/日，进一步增产计划暂未确定，后续可能调整。这主要是应对伊朗遭受袭击之后， 其原油出口量将大幅下降，OPEC+将于4月5日举行下一次会议。EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期大幅累库，成品油去库幅度较 小，整体油品库存大幅增加。2月份美国原油库存大起大落，变化较大。出于美国贸易协议压力，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地 区的原油采购。俄乌在领土、停火等核心问题上未取得实质性进展，双方仍在相互袭击。当地时间2月28日，美国和以色列对伊朗 发动空袭，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名革命卫队高级指挥官，伊朗对以色列及中东的美军基地予以反击。伊朗原油产量和出口 量较大，伊朗日产原油约330万桶，占全球产量的3% ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油低开后震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月27日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量。消息人士称，欧佩克+将在3月 1日的会议上考虑将4月份的石油日产量上调13.7万桶。若美国向伊朗发动打击，沙特短期内拟大幅 增产石油。EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期大幅累库，成品油去库幅度较小，整体油品库存大幅 增加。2月份美国原油库存大起大落，变化较大。美国继续增加在中东地区的军事威胁和对伊朗的制 裁。美国财政部25日宣布，对30多个实体、油轮及个人实施制裁，以打击美方所谓伊朗"非法销售 石油"以及弹道导弹和无人机生产。伊美在日内瓦第三轮间接谈判结束。伊朗外长称谈判取得良好 进展，双方存在分歧，但在某些领域已接近达成共识。双方将在3月2日举行技术谈判，伊朗地缘局 势关键点延至下周，伊朗地缘风险仍有较大不确定性，伊朗原油产量较大，且位于原油海运要道— 霍尔木兹海峡。出于美国贸易协议压力，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购。俄乌在领 土、停火等核心问题上未取得实质性进展，双方仍在相互袭击。预计原油价格偏强震荡，美伊3月2 日谈判结果存不确定性，对油 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月26日 【行情分析】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【基本面跟踪】 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量。消息人士称，欧佩克+将在3月 1日的会议上考虑将4月份的石油日产量上调13.7万桶。若美国向伊朗发动打击，沙特短期内拟大幅 增产石油。EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期大幅累库，成品油去库幅度较小，整体油品库存大幅 增加。2月份美国原油库存大起大落，变化较大。上周美伊第二轮谈判扑朔迷离，前半周伊朗表示取 得积极进展，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，双方能够就一套指导原则达成总体共识，两方仍有一些议题 需要进一步谈判，可能促成协议。但后半周美军加大中东地区军事威胁，白宫新闻秘书表示，美伊 谈判"取得一定进展"，但双方在关键议题上仍"相距甚远"。以色列高级官员称，美国对伊朗发 动军事打击的"时间表正在缩短"。特朗普更是表示伊朗最多只有10到15天时间就核计划达成协议。 目前美国白宫就伊朗问题表示，特朗普总统的首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要时也愿意使用致命 武力。伊 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月25日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量。EIA数据显示，截至2月13日当 周，美国原油库存超预期大幅去库，同时成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存大幅减少。汽柴油 消费均环比增加，另外，冬季风暴再次袭击美国，或将刺激取暖需求，这缓解了供应过剩担忧。上 周美伊第二轮谈判扑朔迷离，前半周伊朗表示取得积极进展，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，双方能够就 一套指导原则达成总体共识，两方仍有一些议题需要进一步谈判，可能促成协议。但后半周美军加 大中东地区军事威胁，白宫新闻秘书表示，美伊谈判"取得一定进展"，但双方在关键议题上仍 "相距甚远"。以色列高级官员称，美国对伊朗发动军事打击的"时间表正在缩短"。特朗普更是 表示伊朗最多只有10到15天时间就核计划达成协议。目前美国白宫就伊朗问题表示，特朗普总统的 首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要时也愿意使用致命武力。伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，在上一轮谈判 达成的共识基础上，伊朗将在日内瓦与美国恢复谈判，决心在最短时间内达成一项公平合理的协议。 美军继续增加在中东地区的军事威胁。伊朗 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量。EIA数据显示，截至2月13日当 周，美国原油库存超预期大幅去库，同时成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存大幅减少。汽柴油 消费均环比增加，另外，冬季风暴再次袭击美国，或将刺激取暖需求，这缓解了供应过剩担忧。上 周美伊第二轮谈判扑朔迷离，前半周伊朗表示取得积极进展，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，双方能够就 一套指导原则达成总体共识，两方仍有一些议题需要进一步谈判，可能促成协议。但后半周美军加 大中东地区军事威胁，白宫新闻秘书表示，美伊谈判"取得一定进展"，但双方在关键议题上仍 "相距甚远"。以色列高级官员称，美国对伊朗发动军事打击的"时间表正在缩短"。特朗普更是 表示伊朗最多只有10到15天时间就核计划达成协议。目前特朗普表示，是否采取行动的决定权在总 统本人手中，并称自己"更愿意达成协议"。但他同时警告，如果无法达成协议，对伊朗及伊朗人 民来说，那将是极其糟糕的一天。美军增加在中东地区的军事威胁。伊朗地缘风险仍有较大不确定 性，伊朗原油产量较大，且位于原油海运要道—霍尔 ...

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: The price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly from 476.1 yuan/barrel to 476.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.15% increase. The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 64.2 dollars/barrel and 69.08 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread strengthened from -0.21 dollars/barrel to -0.09 dollars/barrel, a 57.14% increase. The SC-WTI spread strengthened from 4.67 dollars/barrel to 4.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.57% increase. The Brent-WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.88 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread slightly declined from -8.6 yuan/barrel to -8.7 yuan/barrel, a 1.16% decrease [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: Position data is not provided. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 3,464,000 barrels. The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons to 4,980 tons, and the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 34,710 tons [2]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to the OPEC monthly report on February 11, 2026, OPEC+ member countries' total output in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day to 42.45 million barrels per day, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's output. Specific country changes include: UAE decreased by 14,000 barrels per day to 3.389 million barrels per day; Nigeria decreased by 19,000 barrels per day to 1.478 million barrels per day; Libya decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 1.304 million barrels per day; Algeria decreased by 2,000 barrels per day to 968,000 barrels per day; Venezuela decreased by 87,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day; Iran decreased by 81,000 barrels per day to 3.129 million barrels per day; Iraq increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 4.157 million barrels per day; Saudi Arabia increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 10.086 million barrels per day. Geopolitical events affected supply, such as the explosion of the oil pipeline in Oaxaca, Mexico, and the attack on a refinery in Volgograd, Russia. The Trump administration discussed seizing Iranian oil tankers, which may further restrict Iranian exports [3]. - **Demand Side**: The OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 1.38 million barrels per day and 1.34 million barrels per day respectively, expecting air travel and road traffic to support demand, with the depreciation of the US dollar providing additional support. Actual demand data showed that from February 6 to February 11, 2026, the implied demand for EIA distillate fuel oil production in the US for the week ending February 6 dropped to 5.3961 million barrels per day, a significant decline from the previous value of 5.8043 million barrels per day, reflecting short - term pressure on refined oil demand. India's shift to purchasing US and Venezuelan crude oil may boost regional demand, but overall demand is constrained by refinery disturbances [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Inventory data decreased slightly. From February 6 to February 11, 2026, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.1 million barrels, a decline from the previous value of 21.4 million barrels. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 3,464,000 barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons, indicating a relief of local inventory pressure. However, the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons, indicating inventory accumulation of downstream products [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. On the supply side, OPEC+ production continues to contract, and geopolitical events such as the pipeline explosion in Mexico and the attack on a refinery in Russia intensify supply uncertainty, supporting price increases. On the demand side, although supported by global growth forecasts, the significant decline in US distillate fuel oil demand and the accumulation of refined oil inventories bring downward pressure. The overall inventory decreased slightly, but the limited decline in strategic reserves restricts the price breakthrough space. Considering the changes in supply, demand, and inventory, the slight increase in the SC crude oil main contract reflects the market's concern about supply tightness, but the risk of weak demand suppresses the increase. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - indicators such as the US non - farm payroll data on February 11, 2026, and China's PPI on demand expectations [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the asphalt market are bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, the cost support from crude oil is weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 3300 - 3368 [7][8][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are mostly lower than or close to historical averages, indicating that current demand is lower than historical averages [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8] - **Other Aspects**: The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. On February 9th, the Shandong spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory increased by 5.16% month - on - month, the in - plant inventory decreased by 3.15% month - on - month, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 20.24% month - on - month. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20 [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of most asphalt futures contracts decreased, with the 04 contract closing at 3347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 1.59% compared to the previous value [15] - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis at - 137 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan compared to the previous value [15] - **Some Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads of some contract combinations changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 3 to - 6, a change rate of 100.00% [15] - **Weekly Data**: Weekly inventory, operating rate, output, and other data also showed corresponding changes, such as the social inventory increasing by 5.16% week - on - week, and the national heavy - traffic operating rate decreasing by 4.39% week - on - week [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spreads**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [24][25] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spreads**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratios**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [34][35] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Prices in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2026 [37][38] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40][41] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [43][44][45] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [46][47] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [49][50] - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2026 [52][53] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The report shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [56][58] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [59][60] - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [62][63] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [65][66] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [68][69][71] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and in - plant inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [72][73] - **In - Plant Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [75][76] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82][83] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [84][85] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][92] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [105][106][107] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109][110]

沃什获新任美联储主席提名，短期不改美联储宽松基调。国内1月PMI回落，内需仍需政策呵护。权益 市场ETF流出或告一段落，风险偏好维持高位，看好后续行情。 海外方面，沃什获新任美联储主席提名，主张降息+中长期缩表，短期不会改变美联储宽松基调，亦难 无序降息。金融条件友好托底海外制造业，美国1月标普制造业PMI超预期，未来一段时间海外增长维 持韧性。 国内方面，2026年1月制造业PMI再度回落至收缩区间，供需分项均较季节性水平走弱，而购进价格指 数高位进一步上行、出厂价格回升至景气度区间，或显示上游原材料价格的快速上涨短期对制造业供需 产生一定抑制。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周（1月26日-30日）黄金、白银冲高后巨震，股市震荡回调，债市走势分 化，短端利率上行、长端利率下行。近期商品和权益市场调整，风险偏好下降对债券市场偏友好，但1 月中旬国新办发布会邹行长提及十年期国债在1.8%-1.9%稳定运行，叠加近期银行配债已较为积极，后 续长端利率向下突破1.8%关键点位阻力加大。1月PMI重回收缩区间但出厂价格指数回暖，通胀预期下 货币宽松预期不足，债市向下突破或需看到风险偏好的全面回落和货币政策的明确宽松。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) has shown strong performance against the US dollar, reaching a near two-year high, driven by the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate, but faces challenges from trade uncertainties and economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Canada and Interest Rates - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and revised its economic growth forecast upwards, indicating that inflation will fluctuate around policy targets [1]. - The central bank's cautious stance on future interest rate adjustments due to trade uncertainties has limited expectations for rate hikes, balancing market concerns about easing [1][2]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Canada has provided temporary support for the CAD, as the market anticipates no further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada while the Federal Reserve may still lower rates [1][2]. - There is significant divergence in market expectations regarding the Bank of Canada's future actions, with some predicting potential rate hikes by year-end, while others warn of possible rate cuts due to economic weakness [1]. Group 3: Commodity Prices and Trade Relations - The CAD's performance is closely linked to oil prices, which remain weak due to oversupply, negatively impacting Canada's energy exports and overall economic fundamentals [2]. - Trade uncertainties, particularly related to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and potential tariffs, pose risks to Canadian exports and business investments, which could further pressure the CAD [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The CAD has shown initial bullish trends against the USD, but after reaching a near two-year high, it is currently in a consolidation phase with diminishing trading volume [2]. - The outlook for the CAD suggests limited upward momentum, likely maintaining a range-bound upward trend, with key focus on Canadian economic data, Federal Reserve policy guidance, and trade negotiations [3].