商 品 研 2025 年 11 月 14 日 究 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,028 | -1.14% | 3,015 | -0.43% | | | BU2601 | 元/吨 | 3,029 | -1.11% | 3,007 | -0.73% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2512 | 手 | 6,422 | 779 | 19,538 | (788) | | | BU2601 | 手 | 269,855 | 86,160 | 193,772 | (4,500) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 30110 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly following crude oil [1] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,511 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.15%, and the night - session closing price was 3,515 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. The trading volume was 36,284 lots with an increase of 576 lots, and the open interest was 54,003 lots with a decrease of 6,576 lots. For BU2510, the yesterday's closing price was 3,478 yuan/ton with a 1.42% decline, and the night - session closing price was 3,484 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume was 157,320 lots with an increase of 1,399 lots, and the open interest was 221,612 lots with an increase of 10,056 lots [1] - **Spot Data**: The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 78,170 lots with an increase of 1,520 lots. The basis (Shandong - 09) was 249 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 33 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Shandong - South China spread and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged. The Shandong wholesale price was 3,760 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, both unchanged [1] - **Industry Data**: As of August 7th, the refinery utilization rate was 34.33%, down 0.07% from August 4th, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.54%, down 0.20% from August 4th [1] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] Market News - From July 30th to August 5th, 2025, the total shipments of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers were 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipments decreased due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipments increased due to high - load production and good shipping after improved weather [14] - From July 31st to August 6th, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt manufacturers was 31.7%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residual oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [14]