热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2604主力合约收盘微跌。收盘价3357，较上个交易日收盘价环比微跌0.12%，盘中 最高触及3372，最低3328。06远月合约环比微跌0.06%。 【2】现货基本面：截止2月26日，华东地区重交沥青市场高端价委3320元/吨，环比持平；重交沥青市 场低端价为3280元/吨，环比持平。相对来说，高低端现货价差值40元/吨，现货市场价波动区间相对稳 定。盘面价格相对高端价升水38元/吨，主要是地缘推升 油价情绪，沥青盘面情绪释放。对于实际现货情况来看，节后道路施工率季节性回升，随着天气转好， 下游需求或有望从此前的一般转入良好，对沥青基本面形成支撑。 【3】市场新闻：①在第三轮2月26日谈判前，有关美方在伊核协议内容上的一条硬性要求遭到披露，即 特朗普政府要求伊朗在未来任何核协议中接受协议"无限期有效"，不得设定到期条款。2月26日，新一 轮美伊谈判开始举行。 【4】短期来看，近期委内浮舱有所上行，具体目的地尚未明朗，但概率性流向印度市场偏多。鉴于美 国介入委内后出口端表现合法增加，中国也将与 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-26 局部现货下跌，市场观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、2月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3335元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌27元/吨，跌幅 8.03%；持仓12489手，环比下跌4630手，成交11862手，环比下跌8388手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3700元/吨；山东，3280—3320元/吨；华南，3220—3350元/吨； 华东，3250—3300元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格基本持 稳。节后国内成交氛围较淡，沥青现货市场观望情绪浓厚。目前市场主要矛盾来自于成本端，原油端短期定价则 集中在地缘层面。本周美国与伊朗双方即将举行新一轮谈判，需要重点关注。如果谈判进展不顺，美伊冲突升级， 美国对伊朗采取军事行动，造成伊朗甚至波斯湾供应中断，则将构成巨大的上行风险。反之，如果局势缓和，原 油以及下游商品将逐步回归基本面定价，沥青虽然原料切换后成本有所上移，但终端消费的疲软仍将抑制价格的 上行空间。 策略 单边：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势发展 跨期：无 跨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.7058%，环比减少0.91个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工 率为2%，环比减少7.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为5%， 环比减少10.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平 均水平。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为34.57元/吨，环比减少25.00%，周度山东地 炼延迟焦化利润为176.2071元/吨，环 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the asphalt market is experiencing a lack of upward momentum due to unchanged fundamentals, heavily influenced by geopolitical changes and market risk appetite [1][3][27] - The main contract for asphalt (BU 2603) opened high but retreated, closing at 3339, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous day, with a trading range between 3382 and 3336 [1][27] - The high-end price of heavy asphalt in East China remained stable at 3350 CNY/ton, while the low-end price was also stable at 3250 CNY/ton, indicating a relatively firm market despite previous significant adjustments [2][27] Group 2 - Short-term outlook suggests that asphalt prices will continue to be influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the resumption of US-Iran nuclear negotiations scheduled for February 6, which may ease market tensions [3][27] - The author maintains a strategy of focusing on near-month contracts while monitoring geopolitical developments, suggesting that once geopolitical factors dissipate, there may be potential for long positions in the distant contracts based on improved global supply-demand dynamics [4][28] - The report highlights that the overall market sentiment is low, primarily driven by precious metals, leading to insufficient liquidity affecting asphalt prices [3][27] Group 3 - Key data points include the closing price of asphalt at 3339 CNY/ton, a 0.7% drop from the previous day, and Brent oil price at 68.11 USD/barrel, down 1.2% [31][31] - The report notes that the price spread between asphalt and Brent oil has shown significant fluctuations, with the BU-Brent spread at 126.7 CNY [31][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the results of the upcoming negotiations and their potential impact on the energy market [3][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost side of asphalt remains strong, and the market continues to rise. The geopolitical premium in the oil market has increased significantly due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the macro - sentiment of commodities has also warmed up, leading to a continuous increase in international oil prices and strengthening the cost - side support for asphalt. However, the current market pricing is more based on expectations, the terminal consumption of asphalt is weak, and the basis has weakened significantly after the continuous rise of the futures price. If the geopolitical situation eases, there is room for a correction in the futures market [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 29, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,478 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton or 3.39% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 170,058 lots, a decrease of 5,221 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 402,578 lots, a decrease of 51,997 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,506 - 3,550 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,130 - 3,300 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,250 - 3,350 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,200 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Iran. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - term, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period are expected to limit the upward space of asphalt valuation. The weak and volatile cost side of crude oil will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. - In the short - term, due to Venezuela's ongoing production increase and the release of its maritime inventory, which will suppress asphalt prices, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt's main contract in recent months is presented, with supply - demand and cost factors marked at different time points [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume some production, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium - term. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of the demand side has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected, and the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central range of wide - range fluctuations in oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is rising and overall imports remain strong; demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all sub - sectors on the demand side are weak and the downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking in the overall inventory and the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; the cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak - fluctuation process [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The spot price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions are analyzed [20][22][24]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [32]. - **Term Structure**: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts are analyzed [34]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profits**: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit margins of Shandong asphalt are analyzed, along with the relationships between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][45]. - **Imports**: The import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume of asphalt from different countries are presented, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [49][50][53]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent are analyzed [56]. - **Refinery Profits**: The refining profit margins of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit margin of petroleum coke, are analyzed [59][62]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are analyzed [66][67]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract are presented [70]. - **Inventory and Price**: The relationships between inventory, profit, and price are analyzed [72][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises are analyzed [78][80][83]. - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are analyzed [86][88][92]. - **Highway Investment**: The cumulative investment in highway construction and the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of public fiscal expenditures on transportation are analyzed, as well as the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditures [93][96][100]. - **Road - related Machinery**: The monthly sales volumes and working hours of road - related machinery such as rollers and excavators are analyzed [101][105]. - **Related Consumption**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway, road, and water conservancy industries, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds, are analyzed [108][109]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Positions, Trading Volumes, and Price Volatility**: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are analyzed [114][117][119]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industry Chain**: The exploration and production links of the crude oil industry chain are presented [123][124]. - **Asphalt Industry Chain**: The production processes and uses of asphalt are introduced [125][127].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance for the asphalt industry. It recommends going long on the BU main contract on dips, and taking long positions on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market is strengthening, providing solid support to the cost side of asphalt. Although the rigid demand for asphalt is weak, supply is also restricted, leading to tight local asphalt spot circulation. The BU futures price has shifted to a sideways trend after pricing in the expected tightening of Venezuelan oil supply. With the escalation of the situation in South America and rising benchmark oil prices due to the Iran situation, the cost - side support for asphalt remains [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 14, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.37% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 203,327 lots, down 4,581 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 199,146 lots, down 81,301 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,040 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in North China and Shandong have increased, while those in other regions have remained stable [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. Go long on the BU main contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [2].

Market Performance - The BU 2603 main contract experienced high volatility, closing at 3168, an increase of 0.88% from the previous day, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 1.1% [2][37] - The next month contract 2606 also saw a rise of 0.60% compared to the previous day's closing [2][37] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong is 3100 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6% and a cumulative increase of 1.0% over the past week [2][37] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price remains stable at 3200 CNY/ton, with a basis of +32 CNY/ton, accumulating a 7-day increase of 35 CNY/ton [2][37] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded at -159 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 47 CNY/ton [2][37] - The main BU contract closed up by 0.9%, while Brent decreased by 0.6% [2][37] Fundamental Changes - According to Longzhong's spot price statistics, the low-end price of heavy asphalt in East China has stabilized at 3150 CNY/ton for four consecutive trading days, with the high-end price rising to 3230 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.3% [3][38] - The net short positions for the 03 contract have been decreasing since January 8, while net long positions have been fluctuating upwards, maintaining a long-short ratio of 0.52 [3][38] Geopolitical Developments - Major traders Vitol and Trafigura have received special licenses from the U.S. to supply Venezuelan oil to Chinese and Indian refiners, aiding in the sale of large amounts of floating and in-transit Venezuelan oil [4][38] - The U.S. government has applied for court orders to seize more oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade, which may accelerate the dilution of floating and in-transit inventories [4][38] Short-term Outlook - The near-month contract will continue to focus on geopolitical developments [5][39] - The strategy is to maintain a range-bound approach, with a focus on buying the near-month 03 contract on dips and the far-month 06 contract [6][40]

Market Performance - The main contract BU 2603 opened high and maintained fluctuations, closing at 3140, down 0.66% from the previous settlement price, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 3.9% [31][32] - The next month contract 2606 decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous settlement price, with the near-month contract showing a larger decline than the far-month contract [31] Spot Market - The market price for Shandong heavy asphalt is 3080 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 4.4%. The Shandong basis is -60 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 12 CNY/ton [31][32] - The market price for East China heavy asphalt is 3200 CNY/ton, also unchanged. The East China basis is +60 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative decrease of 8 CNY/ton [31] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -144 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative decrease of 15 CNY/ton. The main BU contract closed down 0.5%, while Brent decreased by 0.1% [31][32] - The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have led to stronger oil price increases compared to asphalt, indicating a risk point for the multi-crack spread [31] Fundamental Changes - According to Longzhong's spot price statistics, the reference price for Shandong independent refineries is between 3010-3140 CNY/ton, with the main reference price at 3220-3240 CNY/ton, and the market benchmark price at 3080 CNY/ton [32] - The tightening of available spot resources is noted, with East China heavy asphalt prices remaining stable [32] - Refineries are expected to gradually increase asphalt production due to acceptable profit margins, which may squeeze profit margins and require more raw materials [32][33] Short-term Outlook - The near-month contract is expected to focus on geopolitical premiums [33] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a fluctuating approach, focusing on near-month contracts while buying low on far-month contracts, with a temporary observation on the crack spread [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On January 12th, the afternoon closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2603 was 3157 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, with a gain of 0.25%. The open interest was 222,525 lots, down 3,135 lots, and the trading volume was 220,926 lots, down 13,052 lots. The spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt showed mixed trends, and the overall market atmosphere was fair. The current contradictions and drivers in the asphalt market mainly come from the cost side. After pricing in the expected tightening of crude oil supply, the futures market has entered a volatile phase. Due to the escalating situation in South America and the US's intention to strengthen control over Venezuelan resources, the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil supply to domestic refineries is being continuously realized. The market is now focusing on the availability of alternative raw materials and their impact on costs. If Venezuelan crude oil that originally flowed to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the US, after the consumption of inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), domestic refineries will need to seek alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc., including discounted resources from Russia and Iran, which will make the changes in cost and product yield more complicated and require dynamic tracking. Overall, the cost center of asphalt raw materials may rise compared to before the incident [1]. 3. Strategy Summary - **Single - side Strategy**: Cautiously bullish. Buy the main BU contract on dips, but avoid excessive chasing of rising prices [2]. - **Inter - period Strategy**: Buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity Strategy**: None [2]. - **Futures - cash Strategy**: None [2]. - **Options Strategy**: None [2]. 4. Figures and Their Units - **Spot Prices**: Figures 1 - 6 show the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), with the unit of yuan/ton [3][5][8][10]. - **Futures Prices**: Figures 7 - 10 show the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, the main contract, the near - month contract, and the near - month spread, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][20][22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Figures 11 - 12 show the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, with the unit of lots [3][26]. - **Production**: Figures 13 - 18 show the weekly asphalt production in China, the production of independent refineries, and the production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][28][30]. - **Consumption**: Figures 19 - 22 show the consumption of asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][40][41]. - **Inventory**: Figures 23 - 24 show the refinery inventory and social inventory of asphalt according to Longzhong's data, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][44].