Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market is under pressure with local spot prices falling. The current fundamental situation of asphalt is weak, with sluggish terminal demand and concentrated release of long - term refinery resources, suppressing the spot market. Without significant fluctuations in the cost side, the market is expected to continue weak and volatile [2]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 207,852 lots, a net increase of 7,905 lots, and the trading volume was 263,304 lots, a net increase of 82,215 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,406 - 3,750 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,150 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China 3,370 - 3,520 yuan/ton; East China 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions fell, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Futures - spot: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, suggesting short - term observation [2] Report's Core View - The asphalt fundamentals remain weak, and the market shows a weak oscillating trend. The weakening of rigid demand in northern provinces seasonally suppresses market sentiment, and there is insufficient upward drive in the market [1] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 30, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3254 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 196,796 lots, up 770 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 160,811 lots, down 12,955 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3406 - 4750 yuan/ton; Shandong 3200 - 3620 yuan/ton; South China 3370 - 3580 yuan/ton; East China 3410 - 3500 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in North China decreased, while that in South China increased slightly, and prices in other regions remained relatively stable [1] - After the successful conclusion of China - US trade negotiations, macro risks have weakened. However, due to the weakening fundamentals of crude oil prices, the cost - driving effect on asphalt is limited [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with short - term observation as the main strategy - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The market has insufficient positive factors, and the market fluctuates at a low level. The asphalt futures and spot markets are affected by multiple factors, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand. The market lacks upward momentum, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of major macro - events [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 21, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,157 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 182,020 lots, a net increase of 14,315 lots, and the trading volume was 168,391 lots, a net increase of 8,384 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,506 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,260 - 3,620 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,340 - 3,550 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, East China, and Sichuan - Chongqing continued to decline yesterday, slightly increased in South China, and remained relatively stable in other regions [1]. - Crude oil and asphalt futures maintained weak fluctuations, which was negative for the sentiment of the asphalt spot market. The current pattern of weak supply and demand in the asphalt market continues, but the sharp drop in oil prices boosts refinery profits, and the supply side has certain elasticity. At the same time, the overall rigid demand for asphalt is weak, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and most market prices continue to decline. Currently, the market still lacks the impetus to rebound [1]. Figures - There are a series of figures in the report, including spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, weekly domestic asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories in refineries and society [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [3] 1. Futures Contract Information - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the BU main contract on September 19 was 3420, dropping to 3156 on October 17, a daily change of -44 and a weekly change of -314. Different contract months (BU10 - BU03) also showed varying degrees of price declines [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume increased from 246,616 on September 19 to 312,542 on October 17, with a daily increase of 43,198 and a weekly increase of 68,738. The open interest rose from 409,431 to 358,277, with a daily increase of 4,924 and a weekly increase of 11,368 [4]. 2. Spot Market Information - **Market Prices**: Market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) all declined to varying degrees. For example, the Shandong market price decreased from 3520 on September 19 to 3380 on October 17, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly decrease of 80 [4]. - **Warehouse Prices**: Prices at various warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan, Hongrun, Jingbo) also declined. For instance, the Zhenjiang warehouse price dropped from 3470 to 3320, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 30 [4]. 3. Basis and Calendar Spread Information - **Basis**: The basis in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) generally increased. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) climbed from 149 to 285, with a daily increase of 114 [4]. - **Calendar Spread**: Calendar spreads between different contract months (10 - 11, 10 - 12, etc.) showed different trends, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. For example, the 10 - 11 spread decreased from 180 to -78, a weekly decrease of 258 [4]. 4. Crack Spread and Profit Information - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread decreased from 244 to 193, a daily decrease of 52 [4]. - **Profit**: Profits of different types of refineries (asphalt - Ma Rui, ordinary refineries, Ma Rui - type refineries) also showed different trends. For example, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 155 to 109, a daily decrease of 46 [4]. 5. Related Product Price Information - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude oil decreased from 63.3 to 61.3, a daily increase of 0.2 and a weekly decrease of 2.0 [4]. - **Gasoline and Diesel**: The Shandong market prices of gasoline and diesel also declined. The gasoline price dropped from 7387 to 7281, a daily decrease of 39 and a weekly decrease of 106 [4].

1. Report Investment Rating There is no information about the investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints There are no clear core viewpoints explicitly stated in the given report. The report mainly presents a large amount of data on asphalt market indicators. 3. Summary by Categories Futures Contracts - **Price Changes**: From September 17 to October 16, the prices of most BU series futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the BU10 contract price decreased from 3451 to 3200, and the BU11 contract price dropped from 3445 to 3279 [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume on October 16 was 269344, with a daily increase of 7215 and a weekly decrease of 53977. The open interest was 353352, with a daily increase of 6845 and a weekly increase of 30758 [4]. Spot Market - **Market Prices**: The market prices of asphalt in different regions generally declined. The Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3420, the East China market price dropped from 3640 to 3500, and the North China market price fell from 3660 to 3440 [4]. - **Regional Price Differences**: The price differences between regions also changed. For instance, the East China - South China price difference decreased from 150 to 50 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The basis values in different regions had fluctuations. The Shandong basis (+80) decreased from 125 to 171, and the East China basis decreased from 72 to 71 [4]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months changed significantly. For example, the 10 - 11 spread decreased from 112 to -79 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt Brent crack spread increased from -31 to 200 [4]. - **Profits**: The profits of different types of refineries generally increased. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit increased from 370 to 530, and the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit rose from 697 to 916 [4].

Report Date - October 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is facing shipment pressure [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2511 closed at 3,250 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1.22%, and 3,246 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.12%. Its trading volume was 112,815 lots, an increase of 12,090 lots, and the open interest was 82,783 lots, a decrease of 16,325 lots [2] - BU2512 closed at 3,184 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.84%, and 3,180 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.13%. Its trading volume was 43,274 lots, a decrease of 9,101 lots, and the open interest was 82,394 lots, a decrease of 2,167 lots [2] - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 42,370 lots, with no change [2] - **Spread**: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day [2] - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was 0, down 10 [2] - The East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - **Spot Market**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,451 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,572 yuan/ton [2] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,444 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,485 yuan/ton [2] - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: - The refinery operating rate was 42.77% on October 13, up 4.47% from October 9 [2] - The refinery inventory rate was 28.70% on October 13, up 2.23% from October 9 [2] Market News - From October 9 - 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 35.8%, a 1.3% increase from the previous week. Some refineries in Henan, Shandong and Shandong stopped production or switched to residue production, while some refineries in East China and Jiangsu had intermittent production [17] - From October 7 - 14, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a 2.9% increase from the previous week. The shipments in East China and Northeast China increased significantly [17] - From October 8 - 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a 4.7% decrease from before the holiday and a 2.5% decrease year - on - year. The demand in the north decreased due to cold weather, and continuous rainfall in Central China also suppressed demand [17]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the short - term price of asphalt futures will continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner, with the international oil price under pressure and acting as the main driving force for asphalt futures, and the price center fluctuating with crude oil [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) fluctuated downward from October 9th to 10th, with an interval decline of 2.12% and an interval amplitude of 2.44% [9]. - Relevant data on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt price difference, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt price difference are presented, but specific data trends are not described in detail [13][17][21]. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong refineries is - 471.49 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei refineries is - 413.44 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction) [27]. - **Price Difference**: On October 10th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the SC*6.6 main contract was 279.46 yuan/ton, up 21.48 yuan/ton from September 30th. On October 9th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 184.34 yuan/ton, up 2.36 yuan/ton from September 30th [31][34]. - **Production**: The operating rate of China's heavy - traffic asphalt was 40.1%, a week - on - week increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The weekly output was 70.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.49% and a year - on - year increase of 44.24%. The weekly operating rate of Shandong asphalt was 51.7%, a week - on - week increase of 15.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The weekly output was 26.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.74% and a year - on - year increase of 61.98% [38][40][43][46]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a week - on - week decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [50]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39%. The weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 75.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.90%. In Shandong, the in - plant inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 28.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64% [53][56]. - **Weather Forecast**: Specific weather forecasts for the next three days in China are provided, with heavy rainfall in many regions [60]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The supply shows a significant recovery. After the holiday, as major refineries resume production, the national asphalt operating rate is expected to continue to rise, and the market supply will be loose [68]. - **Demand**: The demand is differentiated. The demand in the northern market is currently supported by road project rush - work but is expected to weaken with the temperature drop. The demand in the southern market is stable due to project start - up and payment issues [68]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory shows a short - term destocking trend, while the in - plant inventory increases [68]. - **Cost**: Weak economic data and seasonal off - season suppress the demand for US crude oil and gasoline, increasing the pressure on oil inventory accumulation and putting downward pressure on international oil prices [69]. - **Technical Aspect**: The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner and breaks through the oscillation range formed since late August [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term: The report believes that it is highly likely for asphalt valuation to decline in the second half of the year. The current operation rate of independent refineries is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - Short - term: The weakness of asphalt has been gradually realized, and the supply - demand contradiction is relatively small in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent trend chart of the asphalt main contract, and analyzes the influence of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment**: - **Supply**: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume a certain operating rate, which will restrict the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, for the valuation to decline, local refineries need to significantly recover, and they are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term [16]. - **Demand**: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared with previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - **Cost**: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and it is difficult to have a continuous trend market [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: - **Supply**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors in peripheral heavy - oil countries [17]. - **Demand**: The operation rates of all demand - side segments remain weak, and the weakness of waterproofing membranes exceeds expectations [17]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory shows a phenomenon of weak destocking, and social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation. The domestic total inventory accumulates more than expected [17]. - **Cost**: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price of some shale oil production areas in the United States. The oil price is suppressed by political expectations but supported by fundamentals [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [34][35]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [41]. - **Import**: It presents the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [48][50][55]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [61][64][65]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [69]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the quantity of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: It shows the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [90]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation [97]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [108]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the completion amount of fixed - asset investment and the cumulative issuance amount of special local government bonds [114]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [120]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [129]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: It classifies asphalt from the perspectives of production process and usage, and points out its main applications [133].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Group 2: Futures Market Data Futures Contract Prices - The prices of BU main contract, BU10, BU11, BU12, BU01, and BU03 all showed an upward trend from September 9 to September 29. For example, the BU main contract rose from 3420 to 3466, with a weekly increase of 93 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume decreased by 83,458 on a daily basis and 15,365 on a weekly basis to 265,110 on September 29. - The open interest decreased by 24,223 on a daily basis and 83,527 on a weekly basis to 342,335 on September 29 [4]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13,930 on September 29, with a weekly decrease of 5,010 [4]. Group 3: Spot Market Data Market Prices - The market prices of asphalt in different regions showed different trends. The prices in Shandong, East China, and Northeast China decreased slightly, while the price in South China increased by 10 to 3510. The price in North China remained unchanged at 3660 [4]. Warehouse Prices - The prices of the Zhenjiang warehouse and Foshan warehouse increased, with the Zhenjiang warehouse rising by 70 to 3490 and the Foshan warehouse rising by 30 to 3480 [4]. Refinery Prices - The prices of some refineries decreased. For example, the price of Yinrun decreased by 20 to 3470, and the price of Jingbo decreased by 30 to 3580 [4]. Group 4: Basis and Calendar Spread Basis - The basis of Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends. The Shandong basis decreased by 113 on a weekly basis to 84, the East China basis decreased by 23 on a weekly basis to 24, and the South China basis decreased by 63 on a weekly basis to 14 [4]. Calendar Spread - The calendar spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between BU10 - BU11 decreased by 8 on a weekly basis to 19, and the spread between BU10 - BU12 decreased by 13 on a weekly basis to 67 [4]. Group 5: Crack Spread and Profit Crack Spread - The asphalt - Brent crack spread decreased by 26 on a weekly basis to 92 on September 29 [4]. Profit - The asphalt - MRE profit decreased by 23 on a weekly basis to 16. The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries increased by 8 on a weekly basis to 480, and the comprehensive profit of MRE - type refineries decreased by 4 on a weekly basis to 807 [4]. Group 6: Related Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil remained unchanged at 65.5 on September 29, with a weekly increase of 0.1. The price of gasoline in Shandong decreased by 21 on a daily basis and increased by 27 on a weekly basis to 7492. The price of diesel in Shandong increased by 30 on a daily basis and 100 on a weekly basis to 3743. The price of residue oil in Shandong decreased by 28 on a daily basis and increased by 35 on a weekly basis to 6450 [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints No explicit core viewpoints are given in the provided content. It mainly presents various data related to asphalt in different time periods. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contracts - The prices of BU main contract, BU10, BU11, BU12, BU01, and BU03 showed different degrees of change from August 29 to September 29. For example, the BU main contract price increased from 3507 to 3466, with a daily change of 16 and a weekly change of 45 [4]. - The trading volume decreased by 83458 on a daily basis and increased by 18494 on a weekly basis, while the open interest decreased by 24223 daily and 67096 weekly [4]. 3.2 Market Prices - The market prices of asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) also had different trends. For instance, the Shandong market price decreased by 20 from August 29 to September 29, while the South China market price increased by 20 [4]. - The prices of different warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan) and refineries (Yinrun, Jingbo) also changed accordingly [4]. 3.3 Basis and Calendar Spreads - The basis and calendar spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 11, 10 - 12, 11 - 12) showed various changes. For example, the 10 - 11 spread had a weekly change of 20 [4]. - The basis between regions (e.g., Shandong - East China, Shandong - Northeast) also changed over time [4]. 3.4 Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread decreased from -62 to -152, with a daily change of -36 and a weekly change of -214 [4]. - The profits of different types of refineries (ordinary, Ma Rui - type) and import profits (South Korea - East China, Singapore - South China) also showed different trends. For example, the asphalt Ma Rui profit decreased from -11 to -205, with a daily change of -33 and a weekly change of -193 [4]. 3.5 Other Related Data - The prices of Brent crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in Shandong also changed. For example, Brent crude oil price increased from 66.6 to 70.1, with a daily change of 0.7 and a weekly change of 3.6 [4].