Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and this trend may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, with varying trends in different types of asphalt and related product开工率 [8]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase from the previous period, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is slightly positive, the basis is neutral, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the market trend is neutral, the main position is slightly positive. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 32.838%, a 2.40 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a 6.80% decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 648,000 tons, an 11.15% increase. Next week, supply pressure may be further reduced [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.7%, a 0.07 - percentage - point decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.9855%, a 0.11 - percentage - point decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 28.33%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30.6%, a 0.90 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [9]. - **Basis**: On August 26, the Shandong spot price is 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.292 million tons, a 3.79% decrease; the in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a 0.70% increase; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 15,000 tons, a 21.05% decrease [9]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries have reduced production, supply pressure is alleviated, demand recovery is less than expected, inventory is decreasing, and crude oil cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base Difference Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt base differences from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts display the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The chart shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The chart shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [48][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The chart shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The chart shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 [72][73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [77][76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 - 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: Charts show the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory data [104][105].

2025 年 8 月 22 日 沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,496 | 0.09% | 3,500 | 0.11% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,465 | 0.32% | 3,468 | 0.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 7,439 | (834) | 20,537 | (3,225) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 123,366 | (22,655) | 211,461 | (6,077) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 72650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - BU主力合约价格从7月23日的3594降至8月21日的3465，日度变化为11，周度变化为 -38 [4] - BU06价格从3391变为3342，日度变化27，周度变化4 [4] - BU09价格从3594变为3496，日度变化3，周度变化 -38 [4] - BU12价格从3460变为3373，日度变化19，周度变化 -33 [4] - BU03价格从3406变为3340，日度变化20，周度变化0 [4] Trading Volume and Open Interest - 成交量从7月23日的300486变为8月21日的194917，日度变化 -27620，周度变化18196 [4] - 持仓量从459411变为424013，日度变化 -5954，周度变化 -20467 [4] - 合计从42950变为30940，日度变化 -200，周度变化 -1100 [4] Market Prices - 山东市场价从3845变为3510，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -130 [4] - 华东市场价从3780变为3720，日度变化0，周度变化 -10 [4] - 华南市场价从3590变为3490，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -40 [4] - 华北市场价从3730变为3660，日度变化 -10，周度变化 -30 [4] - 东北市场价维持3880，日度和周度变化均为0 [4] Spot Prices - 京博 (海韵) 价格维持3670，日度和周度变化均为0 [4] - 露海(鑫渤海) 价格从3730变为3660，日度变化 -10，周度变化 -30 [4] Basis and Calendar Spreads - 山东 - 华东价差从 -90变为 -210，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -120 [4] - 山东 - 东北价差从 -85变为 -370，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -130 [4] - 华东 - 华南价差从190变为230，日度变化20，周度变化30 [4] - 山东基差从251变为45，日度变化 -31，周度变化 -92 [4] - 华东基差从186变为256，日度变化 -11，周度变化28 [4] - 华南基差从 -4变为25，日度变化 -31，周度变化 -2 [4] - 03 - 06月差从15变为 -2，日度变化 -7，周度变化 -4 [4] - 06 - 09月差从 -203变为 -154，日度变化24，周度变化42 [4] - 09 - 12月差从134变为123，日度变化 -16，周度变化 -5 [4] - 12 - 03月差从54变为33，日度变化 -1，周度变化 -33 [4] - 连一 - 连二月差从36变为42，日度变化 -8，周度变化11 [4] Crack Spreads and Profits - 沥青Brent裂差从30变为74（部分数据缺失） [4] - 沥青马瑞利润从 -42变为 -1（部分数据缺失） [4] - 普通炼厂综合利润从447变为496（部分数据缺失） [4] - 马瑞型炼厂综合利润从724变为762（部分数据缺失） [4] - 进口利润(韩国 - 华东) 从 -52变为 -131，日度变化0，周度变化 -5 [4] - 进口利润（新加坡 - 华南）从 -962变为 -1058，日度变化 -18，周度变化 -31 [4] Related Prices - Brent原油价格从68.6变为66.8，日度变化1.1，周度变化0.0 [4] - 汽油山东市场价从7799变为7655，日度变化7，周度变化 -77 [4] - 柴油山东市场价从6562变为6516，日度变化12，周度变化 -46 [4] - 渣油山东市场价维持3660，日度变化0，周度变化30 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, with the recovery being weak. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3496 [8][10][15] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production in China is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.35%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9] - **Other Aspects**: On August 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 107 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [11] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as futures contracts, weekly inventory, weekly operating rate, weekly output and loss, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand operating rate [17][18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It displays the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 and the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of weekly shipments, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly output, the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt output, weekly operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), social inventory (70 samples), factory inventory (54 samples), and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 - 2025 [65][69][73] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [76][77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (high - way construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate, operating rates by use (modified asphalt, building asphalt), downstream operating conditions (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), and the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2019 - 2025 [82][85][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The basis on August 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The expectation is that the refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side Analysis**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average level [7]. - **Cost - side Analysis**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis Analysis**: On August 14, the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - **Expectation Analysis**: The refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced goods is insufficient, the overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [12]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including the price changes of different contracts, weekly inventory changes (including in - plant inventory, social inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory), and the price changes of different types of asphalt (such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt) [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong basis and the East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crude oil crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][41] - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45] - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][49] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64] - **Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66] - **In - plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation** - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76] - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It presents the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from August 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103][104]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows signs of weakness, with a downward trend in prices and a recent decrease in shipments. However, there has been a slight increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt and modified asphalt enterprises. The market is influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, regional demand, and refinery production schedules [1][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures prices**: On August 13, 2025, BU2509 closed at 3,534 yuan/ton, down 0.14%, and the night - session closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, down 0.62%; BU2510 closed at 3,503 yuan/ton, down 0.09%, and the night - session closed at 3,471 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [1]. - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of BU2509 was 12,434 lots, a decrease of 4,801 lots, and the open interest was 41,183 lots, a decrease of 3,171 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 123,189 lots, an increase of 2,907 lots, and the open interest was 224,999 lots, an increase of 1,869 lots [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of asphalt were 73,750 lots, with no change [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the East China - South China spread remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot prices**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,730 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Refinery indicators**: As of August 7, the refinery operating rate was 34.33%, a decrease of 0.07%, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.54%, a decrease of 0.20% [1]. 3.2 Trend Strength The asphalt trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. 3.3 Market Information - **Shipment volume**: From August 6 - 12, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous period. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the Northeast and East China regions [16]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: From August 7 - 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 32.9%, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period. From August 6 - 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.1%, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period and an increase of 3.8% year - on - year [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly following crude oil [1] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,511 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.15%, and the night - session closing price was 3,515 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. The trading volume was 36,284 lots with an increase of 576 lots, and the open interest was 54,003 lots with a decrease of 6,576 lots. For BU2510, the yesterday's closing price was 3,478 yuan/ton with a 1.42% decline, and the night - session closing price was 3,484 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume was 157,320 lots with an increase of 1,399 lots, and the open interest was 221,612 lots with an increase of 10,056 lots [1] - **Spot Data**: The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 78,170 lots with an increase of 1,520 lots. The basis (Shandong - 09) was 249 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 33 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Shandong - South China spread and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged. The Shandong wholesale price was 3,760 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, both unchanged [1] - **Industry Data**: As of August 7th, the refinery utilization rate was 34.33%, down 0.07% from August 4th, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.54%, down 0.20% from August 4th [1] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] Market News - From July 30th to August 5th, 2025, the total shipments of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers were 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipments decreased due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipments increased due to high - load production and good shipping after improved weather [14] - From July 31st to August 6th, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt manufacturers was 31.7%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residual oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is not explicitly mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market maintains a volatile trend with limited driving forces. The current situation shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations in the crude oil market, resulting in limited guidance on the cost side for asphalt. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory levels. The market has a certain level of support but lacks upward momentum, awaiting new variables [1]. - The recommended trading strategy for asphalt is a unilateral oscillation, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 21, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,657 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 223,360 lots, a decrease of 4,713 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 141,580 lots, a decrease of 15,006 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,640 - 4,070 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,660 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot price in the Shandong market declined yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures and Data - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract), futures spreads, trading volume and open interest, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3].

2025 年 7 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：暂时震荡，警惕原油上行风险 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,620 | -1.15% | 3,620 | 0.00% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,647 | 0.75% | 3,658 | 0.30% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 42 | (648) | 1,119 | (13) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 3,974 | 1,006 | 15,024 | (1,821) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of asphalt is 1, indicating a neutral stance on the market [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: For BU2507, the yesterday's closing price was 3,488 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,499 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The trading volume was 40,556 lots, a decrease of 24,713 lots, and the open interest was 60,928 lots, a decrease of 5,025 lots. For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,481 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,492 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The trading volume was 12,192 lots, a decrease of 12,074 lots, and the open interest was 27,815 lots, a decrease of 1,908 lots [1] - Spot Market: The yesterday's price of Shandong wholesale was 3,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,775 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,907 yuan/ton. The yesterday's price of the Yangtze River Delta wholesale was 3,670 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,656 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,707 yuan/ton [1] - Spread: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 237 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 7 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shandong - South China spread was 315, an increase of 30; the East China - South China spread was 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory and Production: As of June 9, the refinery operating rate was 34.49%, an increase of 0.95% compared with June 5, and the refinery inventory rate was 30.29%, a decrease of 0.54% compared with June 5 [1] Market Information - Capacity Utilization: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The reason was that although some Shandong refineries switched to produce residual oil, some main refineries in East China increased production [11] - Maintenance Volume: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 70.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons or 4.1% compared with the previous week. The reason was that although Jiangsu Xinhai switched to produce residual oil, Sinochem Quanzhou had intermittent resumption of production, leading to a decrease in the loss volume [11] - Shipment Volume: From June 4 - 10, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 434,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0%. Regionally, the changes in North China and East China were more obvious. In North China, the contract volume at the beginning of the month was relatively small, resulting in a significant decrease in shipment volume, while in East China, the main refineries had intermittent production increases and good ship shipments, driving an increase in regional shipment volume [11]