瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.31」 沪铜市场周报 需求渐暖预期向好，沪铜或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.81%，振幅3.12%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价87010元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美媒报道，由于联邦政府"停摆"持续，由联邦政府支持的食品券项目可能会在11月因缺少资金而 被叫停，届时美国4200万低收入者将受到影响。国内方面，二十届四中全会公报发布。全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社 会发展的主要目标：高质量发展取得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破，社会文明 程度明显提升，人民生活品质不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。基本面原料端，铜精 矿供给偏紧局面并未好转，TC费用徘徊于负值区间，矿价坚挺铜价成本支撑较为稳固。供给方面，由于检修家数较多，加 之铜矿以及粗铜供给偏紧张，冶炼产能受限，此外冶炼副产品硫酸价格有回落迹象，冶炼利润亦受影响，生产积极性走弱， 国内精铜供给量或逐步收敛。需求方面，铜价偏高位运行一定程 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 沪铜市场周报 政策积极预期向好，沪铜或将有所支撑 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线偏强震荡，周线涨跌幅为1.07%，振幅2.1%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价79250元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值下降至49.5，创2024年12月以来新低。但服务业PMI初值为55.2， 综合PMI初值为54.6，均创2024年12月以来新高。国内方面，工信部总工程师谢少锋：钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行 业稳增长工作方案即将出台。工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。基本面矿端，铜精矿 TC费用处于负值区间，铜矿供应紧张仍是当下主要矛盾，铜价的成本支撑逻辑仍在。供给方面，原料港口库存逐步回落至 中低位，加之政策方面的引导和调整，国内精铜产量方面增速或略有放缓。需求方面，当前下游加工企业消费仍处淡季， 加之，近期因行业预期提升铜价表现强势，下游在淡季节点对高价铜的接受度较 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on the Shanghai Copper Market: Ample Supply and Slowing De-stocking, Shanghai Copper Likely to Move in a Range [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to move in a range due to relatively ample supply and slightly slowing demand growth. The report suggests light - position range trading, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell this week, with a weekly increase of +0.3% and an amplitude of 1.98%. The closing price was 77,450 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: In the US, the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly decline in labor productivity in Q1 2025 was 0.8%, the first decline since 2022, and the unit labor cost jumped 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [4] - **Domestic Situation**: In 2024, the sales volume of consumer goods trade - in exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan. In 2025, the special treasury bond support funds will be expanded to 300 billion yuan, and mobile phones and other digital products will receive purchase subsidies for the first time [4] - **Fundamentals**: The import TC spot index of copper raw materials continued to decline, and the supply of copper concentrate remained tight. However, due to sufficient port inventories and good pre - stockpiling by smelters, the overall supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. Downstream consumption support may weaken as it approaches the off - peak season, and the willingness to purchase has decreased. The inventory is still being depleted, but the rate has slowed down [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of May 9, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 755 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 320 yuan/ton. The contract price was 77,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 181,319 lots, a week - on - week increase of 16,501 lots [10] - **Spot Price**: As of May 9, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 1,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 570 yuan/ton [13] - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 115 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 5,644 lots, an increase of 2,484 lots from last week [22] - **Option Market**: As of May 9, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 1.225, a week - on - week increase of 0.0723 [27] 3. Upstream Situation - **Quotes and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 310 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29] - **Imports and Price Difference**: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3939 million tons, a 9.67% increase from February and a 2.8% increase year - on - year. The price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,472.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.31 yuan/ton [34] - **Production and Inventory**: As of February 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.803 million tons, a 6.09% decrease from January. The global capacity utilization rate was 80.9%, a 2.9% increase from January. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 750,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125,000 tons [39] 4. Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper**: As of March 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.248 million tons, a 0.48% increase from December and an 8.81% increase year - on - year. As of February 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper was 2.2 million tons, a 7.95% decrease from January, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.1%, a 1% increase from January [43][44] - **Supply - Imports and Profits**: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 354,275.469 tons, a 16.11% increase from February and a 15.86% increase year - on - year. The import profit and loss was 277.76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 117.17 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,025 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 6,101 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 14,877 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 126,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons [55] 5. Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Products**: As of March 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, a 6.49% decrease from December. The monthly import volume of copper products was 470,000 tons, an 11.9% increase from February and a 0% decrease year - on - year [62] - **Application - Power and Home Appliances**: As of March 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction increased by 24.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in power source construction decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 11.9%, decreased by 4.3%, 12.1%, and 2.4% year - on - year respectively [68] - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of March 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 199.041692 billion yuan, a 9.9% decrease year - on - year and an 85.68% increase month - on - month. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, a 6% increase year - on - year and a 42.68% increase month - on - month [74] 6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of February 2025, the global refined copper supply was in surplus, with a monthly surplus of 61,000 tons according to ICSG. The cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 75,900 tons according to WBMS [77]