国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 13 日 星期二 品种观点： 客服产品系列•日评 【股指期货】 周一（1 月 12 日）A 股三大指数继续强势表现，沪指日线 17 连阳再创逾十年新高。截止收盘， 沪指涨 1.09%，收报 4165.29 点；深证成指涨 1.75%，收报 14366.91 点；创业板指涨 1.82%，收报 3388.34 点。 沪深京三市成交额达到 36450 亿，较上一交易日大幅放量近 5000 亿，创 A 股历史最大成交量。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 12 日强势。收盘 4789.92，环比上涨 30.99。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 12 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1771.6，环比上涨 23.8。 1 月 12 日焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1240.5 元，环比上涨 50.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：央行工作会议中强调把促进经济高质量发展物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，市场对流动性宽 松预期加强。供给上，焦化开工在环保结束后开始回升，吨焦平均利润随煤价的止跌下滑；需求，铁水日均产量 229.5 万吨，较上周+2.07 ...

每经AI快讯，1月13日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨5.24%，沪锌涨1.06%，沪铜涨 0.54%，沪铝涨0.18%，沪镍跌0.04%，沪铅跌0.14%，氧化铝跌0.63%，不锈钢跌0.72%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜高开，主力期价一度逼近 10.4 万关口，随后呈现高位震 荡态势，日内持仓量上升明显，沪铜持仓量已逼近 70 万张。周末归 来，市场宏观氛围依旧较好，日内无论是商品还是股市呈现普涨态 势。产业端，SMM 报道，铜价持续高位运行，对下游采购情绪形成显 著压制出库节奏疲软，国内电解铜社会库存已连续六周累库。 沪铝 今日沪铝冲高回落，持仓量上升明显。周一宏观氛围较好，有色 板块普涨，但铝日内表现较 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper futures in Shanghai experienced significant strength, rising by 3.08% to reach 103,370.00 yuan/ton as of January 12 [1] - The average price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai increased by 2,895 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with a range of 102,850-103,600 yuan/ton [2] - Major copper smelting companies in China decided not to set a unified processing/refining fee (TC/RC) guidance price for imported copper concentrate for the first quarter of 2026 [2] Group 2 - A report from Yide Futures highlights global copper supply tightness and insufficient elasticity, with new consumption from green energy and computing driving copper prices upward [4] - Dongwu Futures notes that the recent ADP employment data from the U.S. fell short of market expectations, indicating a still-weak labor market, while the initial jobless claims showed some resilience [4] - The high copper prices are suppressing domestic demand, leading to low spot transaction volumes and a continued accumulation of inventory, with the pace of accumulation faster than in previous years [4]

沪铜或维持高位震荡趋势 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 | 1 | 月 | 12 | 日星期一 | 研究报告 铜周报 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 美联储理事米兰表示，预计在 2026 年降息约 150 个基点。此 举有望创造约一百万个就业岗位，同时不会引发通货膨胀。米兰 表示，很难说政策是中性的，他认为美国仍然实质性超出中性的 水平。据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 1 月降息 25 个基 点的概率为 11.6%，维持利率不变的概率为 88.4%。到 3 月累计降 息 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（1.5~1.9） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜企稳上涨，沪铜主力合约上涨3.23%，收报于101410元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，委内瑞拉事件 起起伏伏。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还 是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存138975吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周，增 35201吨至180543吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，20 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that all basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced an increase during the night session on January 10, with notable gains in various metals [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin rose by 3.15% [1] - Shanghai nickel increased by 2.78% [1] - Shanghai copper saw a rise of 1.93% [1] - Shanghai aluminum climbed by 1.77% [1] - Stainless steel went up by 1.24% [1] - Shanghai lead increased by 0.61% [1] - Shanghai zinc rose by 0.36% [1]

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 作者声明 从业资格证号：F3035632 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 有色日内回升，铝表现较强 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜早盘先抑后扬，日内持续增仓回升，基本收复昨夜跌 幅。短期多空博弈加剧，资金获利了结意愿上升，而产业弱现实也 给予期价压力。短期宏观氛围主导期价走势，日内氛围回暖，商品 普遍反弹。短期可持续关注 10 日均线支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝增仓上行明显，逼近前期高点。周三以来宏观氛围冷 却，有色普跌。而铝价相对强势，这一方面是由于其宏观属性相对 铜较弱，另一方面则是由于 12 月以来铝代铜 ...

有色和贵金属板块出现明显回调迹象。 截至1月8日白天收盘，沪镍2602合约收跌6.14%，前一交易日该合约曾触及涨停板；同样在前一天收涨，沪银期货也 收跌近6%；国际铜、沪铝、沪铜、铸造铝合金、沪铅等期货主力合约均跌超2%；沪锡、氧化铝、沪锌、沪金等同样 收跌。 | 合约名称 | 两日图 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 卖价 | 买属 | 22 1 | 成交量 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多昌硅2605 | | 53610 | 2 | | 53610 | | 2643 | 4.0万 | -5300 | -9.00% | | 集运指数(欧线)2602 | | 1706.0 | 12 | 1705.7 | 1706.0 | | 11 | 2.7万 | -168.3 | -8.98% | | H2606 | m | 575.00 | 1 | 575.05 | 575.15 | | 3 | 5.2万 | -41.40 | -6.72% | | 治道2602 | mana | ...