Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 31, 2026, the A - share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A - share market had a collective callback, and futures markets such as coke, coal, and others had their own price movements influenced by factors like supply - demand relationships, international policies, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Category A. Stock Index Futures - On March 31, A - share market indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.80% to 3891.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.70% to 3184.95 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 31, closing at 4450.05, a decrease of 41.90 from the previous day [2]. B. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 31, the coke weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1737.4, a decrease of 54.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index also trended weakly, closing at 1203.2 yuan, a decrease of 72.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly increases, coke inventory slightly rises, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, downstream molten iron slightly increases, and steel profit slightly improves. The coking coal futures price has a large premium over Mongolian coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1230 vehicles. Coal mine production has returned to a high - level, weekly production slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are good this week, transaction prices mainly rise, terminal inventory significantly increases, and there is some restocking action. The total coking coal inventory slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly decreases [4]. C. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the failure of the futures price to break through and stabilize at the 16 - cent technical level, it was pressured by technical selling, and the US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by the technical aspect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol due to high energy prices. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. D. Rubber - Affected by the decline of synthetic rubber, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on Tuesday. At night, supported by bargain - hunting buying, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. From January to February, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber were 297,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first two months were 747,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [4]. E. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 31, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1172.25 cents per bushel, a gain of 1.17%. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than analysts' forecast of 85.549 million acres. Brazil's soybean exports in March are estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast, and the short - term export rhythm is stable. Domestically, on March 31, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.75%. China has relaxed the weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans, and the customs clearance speed has accelerated. Brazilian soybeans will arrive in large quantities from April to May, and the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. It is recommended to focus on the weather in South American main production areas, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and customs clearance efficiency [6]. F. Live Pigs - On March 31, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9770 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level, higher than the reasonable regulation target. Coupled with the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs continues to increase, and the slaughter volume remains high. The capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply side remains loose. The demand side has insufficient carrying capacity and cannot effectively support the live pig price. Although some slaughtering enterprises carry out frozen product segmentation and warehousing operations, and there is a small amount of secondary fattening, such demand is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the current market pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [6]. G. Palm Oil - On March 31, affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. However, the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and the market oscillated and declined with a reduction in positions. By the afternoon close, the palm oil main contract P2605 K - line closed as a negative line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price on the day was 10082, the lowest price was 9808, and the closing price was 9866, a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day. According to the independent inspection agency AmSpec in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 were 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the 1,025,449 tons exported in the same period last month [6]. H. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2605 contract oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 95340 yuan per ton. The opening price was 96100 yuan per ton, the highest was 96240 yuan per ton, the lowest was 95150 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 96,900 lots, and the positions slightly declined. In the spot market, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was 95350 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, with a premium of 120 - 160 yuan per ton. The price differences in East China, South China, and Central China were all within 50 yuan, and the market transactions were stable. Fundamentally, on the supply side, smelting has production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized; on the demand side, the "Golden March" peak season is gradually realized, and the power grid, new energy, and other fields support the demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing at a low level, and the global inventory is still tight. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the progress of domestic inventory reduction [6]. I. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15510 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 15 lots compared with the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about price adjustments. The US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 US cotton planting intention forecast on Tuesday. The current industry average forecast is 9.229 million acres, with a forecast range of 9 - 9.635 million acres. Last year's actual planting area was 9.283 million acres, the US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 9.4 million acres, and the US NCC predicted 8.99 million acres [6][7]. J. Iron Ore - On March 31, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.8% and a closing price of 808 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period declined, the arrival volume continued to increase month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, steel mills maintained the resumption trend, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [8]. K. Asphalt - On March 31, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and declined, with a decline of 1.53% and a closing price of 4512 yuan. The refinery operating rate is at a low level, the supply is tight, the terminal demand starts slowly, the refinery shipments continue to decline month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8]. L. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 826 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 820, a maximum of 829, and a closing price of 820.5, with a daily reduction of 360 lots. On March 31, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 790 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69%, hitting a one - month low. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of the macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9]. M. Steel - On March 31, rb2605 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3294 yuan per ton. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry both rebounded and entered the expansion range. Although the business activity index of the construction industry rose to 49.3% in March, it was still in the contraction range. The number of newly started projects this year decreased year - on - year, and the industry demand recovered slowly. From the perspective of the steel market fundamentals, the supply and demand have gradually recovered since March, but it still faces high inventory pressure. Merchants mainly continue to reduce inventory, and the short - term steel price may oscillate [9]. N. Alumina - On March 31, ao2605 closed at 2827 yuan per ton. Affected by the uncertainty of Guinea's ore policy and the increase in shipping costs due to the Middle East situation, the price of imported ore still has room to rise. Coupled with the increase in caustic soda prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost support of alumina continues to move up. In addition, some domestic production cuts and new production capacities have not yet been fully released, and the short - term supply pressure is not large. However, since there are many new production capacities to be put into operation at home and abroad in the medium and long term, the upward pressure on alumina is still large [9]. O. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 31, al2605 closed at 24875 yuan per ton. The downstream demand is picking up, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching. In addition, the potential risk of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East. Coupled with the concerns about aluminum plant production cuts caused by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, the global supply stability is facing challenges. It is worth noting that the extent of the production capacity damage of Bahrain Aluminum and UAE Aluminum due to the weekend incident remains to be evaluated, while Qatar Aluminum has clearly terminated the production capacity reduction plan, injecting a certain degree of stability into the market. Overall, there is still support at the bottom of electrolytic aluminum [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran having a significant impact on the energy market, leading to increased fuel costs in the shipping industry and potential disruptions to the supply chain [10][16]. - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture, with some positive signs in industrial profits but also challenges in areas such as manufacturing PMI and consumer spending [2][19]. - The financial market is experiencing volatility, with bond ETFs becoming a safe - haven due to rising risk aversion, and the stock and bond markets being affected by energy price increases and inflation expectations [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down from the previous month and the same period last year, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.5%, remaining the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - CPI in February 2026 was 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month and a significant improvement from the same period last year [1]. - PPI in February 2026 was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous year [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of 2026 increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous year [1]. - Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Imports in February 2026 increased by 13.8% year - on - year, also showing an upward trend [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of operating income improved significantly [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launched two trade barrier investigations against the US in response to the latter's 301 investigations [2]. - From April 22, QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [3]. - On March 27, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - The Fed Vice - Chair expects the US economy to expand at about 2% or slightly faster in 2026, with stable unemployment [4]. Metals - Since late March, international gold prices have experienced a "historic" shock, and after a sharp decline, there is a mixed reaction in the market [5]. - Since March, the domestic non - ferrous futures sector has shown a downward trend, especially copper futures, which have fallen by more than 8% this month [5]. - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the market [6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - A new rare earth - niobate mineral, Xianhuaite - (La), was discovered in the Bayan Obo deposit, which is of great value for the study of the deposit's formation [8]. - Due to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, some Asian countries are increasing coal production and use [9]. - Indonesia has no plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports on April 1 [9]. - Bauxite shipments increased by 16% year - on - year, but experts are cautious about the market outlook [9]. Energy and Chemicals - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant increase in the fuel cost of the global shipping industry, and the industry is facing pressure but also has an opportunity for energy transformation [10]. - Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 to July 31 to stabilize prices and ensure domestic supply [10]. - India has imposed windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports [10]. - Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline is operating at full capacity, but the Red Sea may become a new conflict front [11]. - The US allows Cuba to receive a large - scale oil shipment from Russia, breaking the oil blockade [11]. Agricultural Products - On March 29, the national pig market showed a widespread upward trend, but the increase was regional and phased [12]. - In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in 30 monitored provinces decreased by 28% year - on - year, reaching a new low since June 2018 [13]. - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the State Administration for Market Regulation have taken measures to address food safety issues exposed by the "3.15" Gala [13]. - China will implement zero - tariff measures for all African diplomatic countries starting from May 1, 2026 [13]. Financial News Open Market - This week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [14]. - On March 27, the central bank conducted 146.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan [14]. Key News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, with the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz and Iran increasing its counter - attacks [16]. - The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, and there are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US [17]. - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and corporate earnings announcements [18]. - The State Council emphasizes the development of the service industry and the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system [19]. - From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly, especially in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [19]. - The People's Bank of China requires the improvement of the financial risk prevention and resolution system [20]. - China's foreign exchange market shows strong resilience, and the RMB exchange rate remains stable [20]. - China and the EU agree to set up a trade and investment working group and continue dialogue on export control [20]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launches two trade barrier investigations against the US [21]. - Some banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, and bond ETFs have become a safe - haven for investors [21]. - Energy price increases have led to stagflation expectations, hitting the stock, bond, and gold markets, and investors are flocking to cash [22]. - Some companies have bond - related events, such as default and regulatory measures [22]. - Some companies' credit ratings have changed [23]. Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market is slightly bullish, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds declining, but the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract closed down [24]. - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [24]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [25]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term varieties also decreased [25][26]. - The winning bid rate of the Import - Export Bank's 3 - year fixed - rate bond was 1.5045% [26]. - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with non - US currencies showing mixed performance [28]. Research Report Highlights - Citic Securities suggests focusing on countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages, and recommends sticking to China's advantageous manufacturing industries [29][30]. - Citic Securities believes that the long - term demand for bank self - operated funds in exchange - traded corporate bonds and ABS products is unlikely to change fundamentally [30]. - Citic Securities expects the Strait of Hormuz's passing capacity to partially recover, which may drive up oil shipping prices and increase the profits of oil shipping companies in 2026 [30]. - Tianfeng Fixed - Income believes that there is no need to overly worry about large banks selling ultra - long - term bonds in March, and their buying power may increase in April [30]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit bond curve showed a bull - steep trend in March, and the end - of - quarter adjustment may be a good investment opportunity [30]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, focusing on serving new - quality productivity, building a "long - term investment" ecosystem, and cultivating Chinese - characteristic financial culture [33]. Today's Reminders - On March 30, 263 bonds will be listed, 60 bonds will be issued, 113 bonds will be paid, and 653 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [31][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices declined and then stabilized. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.26% to close at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, while the Middle East events and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons and increased significantly last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. - The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The Shanghai copper main contract rose 1.26% last week, closing at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased significantly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. 3.2. Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The 2018 - 2024 China annual copper supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in each year, with a supply surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][20]. 3.3. Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are at a low level [23]. - **CFTC Position**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [25]. - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [28]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On March 27, 2026, A-share major indices opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.63% to 3913.72, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.13% to 13760.37, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71% to 3295.88. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1864 billion yuan, a decrease of 93.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On March 27, the A-share market had a good performance, with major indices rising. The trading volume continued to shrink [1]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures - On March 27, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1274.6 yuan, a decrease of 19.7 yuan. The coke weighted index adjusted and closed at 1785.8, a decrease of 17.2 [2][3]. - Factors affecting prices include steel exports, coking plant profit, inventory changes, policies, and geopolitical situations [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - On March 27, US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. Affected by rising crude oil prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2609 contract rose during the night session. Speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 90,286 lots to 126,149 lots as of March 24 [4]. Rubber Futures - On March 27 night session, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. As of March 27, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,630 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory decreased by 2923 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4436 tons [4][5]. Palm Oil Futures - On the night of March 27, the Dalian Commodity Exchange palm oil futures opened higher but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative K - line. Logistics and insurance cost increases due to tensions may affect Indonesia's palm oil exports [5]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on March 27, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1159.5 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.98%. Brazil's high - yield situation suppresses prices. Domestically, on March 27, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.51%. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, supply is expected to be loose [5]. Live Pig Futures - On March 27, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9965 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.32%. The supply is currently loose, while the demand is insufficient to support prices effectively [5]. Shanghai Copper Futures - On March 27, the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated slightly and closed higher. The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show a tight balance between supply and demand [5]. Cotton Futures - On March 27 night session, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15435 yuan per ton. Cotton inventory decreased, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed [7]. Iron Ore Futures - On March 27, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down, a decrease of 0.49%. Shipments and arrivals increased, and the price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. Asphalt Futures - On March 27, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and rose, an increase of 1.05%. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may follow the oil price in the short term [7]. Log Futures - On March 27, the log 2605 main contract opened at 817.5, with the lowest at 811, the highest at 819.5, and closed at 817.5, with a reduction of 384 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7][8]. Steel Futures - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased steel production costs, but the cost increase has not been effectively transmitted to the finished product end. The steel market is in a game of weak reality, strong cost, and inventory reduction [8]. Alumina Futures - The raw material cost of alumina is supported, the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable and may increase. The market is in a game between short - term demand - positive sentiment and long - term supply - loose reality [8]. Shanghai Aluminum Futures - Some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East has been affected. The supply is expected to increase slightly, the demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by the situation of increasing supply and demand and decreasing inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first declined and then rose, with a weekly increase of 1.26%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 95,930 yuan/ton [7] - **International Economic Outlook**: The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2026 and will slightly rebound to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate will slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year will reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation [7] - **Domestic Diplomatic Events**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand. Both the US and Iran are willing to restart negotiations, and the international community should encourage them to return to the negotiation table [7] - **Fundamentals**: The spot index of copper concentrate TC has continued to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply has gradually strengthened, providing strong cost support for copper prices. The utilization rate of copper smelter production capacity has gradually recovered, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production. With the arrival of the peak season and the decline of copper prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises has been boosted, and they are replenishing inventory at low prices. The inflection point of social inventory decline has been confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 610 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,695 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 95,930 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,190 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 187,395 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13,786 lots [14] - **Spot Prices**: As of March 27, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,355 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was $65/ton, a week - on - week increase of $12.5/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 56,038 lots, an increase of 6,979 lots compared with last week [26] - **Options Market**: As of March 27, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options open interest was 0.9, with a week - on - week change of 0.067 [31] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Quotations and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quotation in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,520 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 1,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 700 yuan/ton [34] - **Copper Ore Imports and Scrap - Refined Spread**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3103 million tons, a decrease of 312,800 tons from January, a decline of 11.92% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper spread (including tax) was 4,784.51 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 997.73 yuan/ton [39] - **Global Copper Mine Production and Port Inventory**: As of December 2025, the global monthly production value of copper concentrates was 2,050,000 tons, an increase of 159,000 tons from November, an increase of 8.41%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 82.3%, an increase of 3.6% from November. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 315,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89,000 tons [44] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, an increase of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of January 2026, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,426,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from December, a decline of 0.16%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 78.6%, a decrease of 0.3% from December [46] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 203,588.219 tons, a decrease of 47,080.37 tons from January, a decline of 18.78% and a year - on - year decline of 33.28% [54] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 17,475 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 1,011 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50,776 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 440,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons [57] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Imports**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, an increase of 0.14%. As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper products was 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from January, a decline of 15.79% and a year - on - year decline of 23.81% [64] - **Power Grid Investment and Home Appliance Production**: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65% respectively. As of December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% respectively [68] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of February 2026, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 96.1211 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% and a month - on - month increase of 88.39%. As of February 2026, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 81.52 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% and a month - on - month increase of 83.17% [74] 3.6 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Situation**: According to ICSG statistics, as of January 2026, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of January 2026, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 129,300 tons [79]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 26, 2026 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to 3889.08, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.41% to 13606.44, and the Chi - Next Index declined 1.34% to 3272.49. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1957.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 235.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4477.53, down 59.93 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1287.5 yuan, down 9.1. After the holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, with supply at a high level in the same period of previous years, and prices were under some pressure. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and there was still pressure on port inventory. From January to February 2026, the total import of coking coal was 19.8268 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.21% [3][4]. - Coke: The weighted index of coke closed at 1792.6, down 18.6. Some coking enterprises initiated the first - round price increase for coke, with the price of wet - quenched coke rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25. Mainstream steel mills have not yet accepted it, and the first - round price increase is still in a game. The iron - making water output increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons per day. From January to February 2026, China's total coke exports were 1.4341 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.87% [2][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the crude oil price fluctuated higher on Thursday. Supported by the strong crude oil price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated upward on Thursday. The night session of the contract had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. In April 2026, the domestic sugar sales quota was 2.3 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors such as a large short - term increase and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted out on Thursday, with a small increase. The night session had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 177.526 million pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 26, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1171 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.21%. As of the week ending March 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 668,900 tons, a 124% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly over, with export logistics facing challenges, but the overall supply is abundant. Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 15.87 million tons [5]. - Domestic market: On March 26, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively solving the soybean export quarantine problem, and the market's concern about the supply of imported soybeans is gradually subsiding. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased last weekend, and the spot inventory of oil mills increased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume of soybeans in China will increase significantly from April to May [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 26, the main live pig LH2605 contract closed at 9835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45%. Affected by the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction and the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The overall shipment enthusiasm was high, and the shipment rhythm accelerated significantly. The demand side was in the seasonal off - season, with weak downstream white - strip sales, low slaughtering enterprise operating rates, and limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 26, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to follow the crude oil price fluctuations, with the main contract P2605 closing with a positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9640, the lowest was 9482, and the closing price was 9614, a 1.09% decrease from the previous trading day. From March 1 to 25, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.74% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract had a narrow - range shock and finally closed up 0.17% at 95,350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,325 yuan/ton, with a discount of 25 yuan/ton compared to the main futures contract. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased significantly by 997,000 tons compared to March 19. The global shortage of copper ore raw materials is still expected, the smelting processing profit is limited, and the output increase is limited. The downstream demand of the domestic power grid and new - energy vehicles is steadily recovering [5]. 2.8 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 816.5, with a minimum of 814, a maximum of 820, and a closing price of 817, with a decrease of 349 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - On March 26, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed up 0.18% at 817 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased week - on - week, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron - making water demand of steel mills recovered. The short - term iron ore price was in a shock trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - On March 26, the main asphalt 2606 contract closed up 4.17% at 4543 yuan. The refinery production plan in April decreased to a low level in the same period in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery shipment volume decreased week - on - week. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. 2.11 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,355 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 100 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased on demand [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 26, rb2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3305 yuan/ton. This week, the steel market may see an increase in both supply and demand, and the inventory is still in a downward channel. However, the overall trading volume of the steel market was average. The short - term steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 26, ao2605 closed at 2931 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity has not yet produced, which alleviated the phased supply pressure. However, the suppression brought by the new production capacity is still significant, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change. The downstream peak - season consumption expectation is lower than in previous years, and the market trading is dull [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 26, al2605 closed at 23,725 yuan/ton. The market is waiting and seeing the possibility of the US - Iran talks in the Middle East and evaluating the possibility of the situation intensifying again. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating smoothly, the aluminum - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still at a high level, the accumulation speed of the aluminum ingot social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum rod shows inventory reduction. The demand side shows moderate receiving, and the downstream and terminal restocking willingness exists, which provides certain support for the spot [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.30% to 3931.84, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.95% to 13801.00, and the ChiNext Index up 2.01% to 3316.97. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while the coke and coking coal weighted indices declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, and other futures were affected by factors such as news of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 25, the A - share major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.01%. The trading volume of the three - market was 2.19 trillion yuan, up 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4537.47, up 62.74 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 25, the coke weighted index oscillated and closed at 1807.8, down 25.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range oscillation, closing at 1296.6 yuan, down 13.5. Coking profit was average with a slight increase in daily production. Coke inventory changed little, and the purchasing willingness of traders improved slightly. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1516 vehicles. Coal mine resumption was good, weekly production increased slightly, and the spot auction transaction price rose due to market concerns about energy [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the sharp drop in oil prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated lower on March 25. At night, it had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of March 24, 12 sugar mills in Zhanjiang, Guangdong had completed squeezing, and 5 were still in production. It was expected that the latest - squeezing mill would stop in early April. As of late March, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was about 600,000 tons, and the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season was expected to be slightly less than the previous season's 650,000 tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the news that the US submitted a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the conflict, oil prices dropped sharply. The market's optimistic sentiment about the possible easing of the US - Iran conflict was reignited, and the Southeast Asian spot quotes oscillated higher. The Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on March 25. Affected by the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.77526 billion pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber increased by 8.5% year - on - year to 1.542 million tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was 67.7%, behind last year's 76.4%. Brazil's soybean exports in March were expected to be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast. On March 25, the bean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture was actively solving soybean export quarantine problems, and the market's concern about imported soybean supply was gradually subsiding. The bean meal inventory last week was 620,000 tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week and down 170,000 tons month - on - month [6]. Pig - On March 25, the pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Due to the high inventory of breeding sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The scale pig enterprises' March sales plan increased month - on - month, and the sales rhythm accelerated. The demand was in the seasonal off - season, the downstream white - strip sales were weak, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was low. Although frozen product storage and secondary fattening provided some support, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [6]. Palm Oil - On March 25, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's palm oil futures followed the oil price fluctuations. After a sharp drop in the morning, it was weak. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji - like K - line. The highest price was 9676, the lowest was 9464, and the closing price was 9510, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, up 38.4% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the exports were 1,389,549 tons, up 51% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract CU2605 closed at 95,590 yuan/ton, with an intraday range of 93,480 - 96,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume remained high. Driven by technical repair and downstream replenishment, the copper price rebounded from the short - term oversold situation. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while the overseas inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it was likely to maintain a range - bound pattern [6]. Cotton - On the night of March 25, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,370 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. As of late March 2026, the total inventory of un - cleared foreign cotton in Qingdao, Nantong, and Zhangjiagang was about 470,900 tons, an increase of 38,700 tons from the end of February and about 200,000 tons since October last year [6]. Log - On March 25, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 807, a maximum of 823.5, and closed at 816, with a decrease of 1315 lots. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu were both 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Iron Ore - On March 25, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.83%, closing at 806.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's hot - metal demand increased. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8]. Asphalt - On March 25, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.1%, closing at 4410 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery's production plan in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery's sales volume decreased month - on - month. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price [8]. Steel - On March 25, rb2605 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The US proposed a 15 - item plan to end the conflict in Iran through Pakistan, but Iran's response was unclear. The domestic energy and chemical futures prices continued to fall, and the coking coal futures price also weakened. The domestic steel demand recovery was slow, the market transaction was average, and the cost support was unstable. The short - term steel price might have a weak and narrow - range adjustment [8]. Alumina - On March 25, ao2605 closed at 2963 yuan/ton. The Guinea Ministry of Mines planned to restrict bauxite exports in early April to stabilize prices, and the supply contraction expectation increased. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity had not been put into production, which relieved the short - term supply pressure. However, the long - term oversupply expectation remained, and the social inventory was still at a high level. The downstream procurement demand was average, and the consumption sentiment was low [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 25, al2605 closed at 23,860 yuan/ton. The market was evaluating the possible peace - talk plan between the US and Iran, but the US was also increasing the deployment of ground troops. The oil price continued to decline, and non - ferrous metals continued to rebound. Some aluminum plants in the Middle East had production cuts. The supply side was stable, the aluminum - water ratio increased slightly, and the social inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The demand side showed good receiving, and the downstream and terminal replenishment willingness supported the spot price [8].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On March 24, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 13536.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 3251.55 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2096.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 352.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on March 24, closing at 4474.72, a month-on-month increase of 56.73 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On March 24, the coke weighted index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1823.0, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2 [2] - On March 24, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1297.2 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.7 [3] - The spot price of coke at ports increased. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed to raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The steel mills' profitability was fair, and the iron water output continued to increase, leading to an increase in the procurement enthusiasm for coke [4] - The price of coking coal in some areas increased. The production of main coal-producing areas remained stable, and the market trading activity increased. The terminal steel demand improved, and the coke enterprises proposed a price increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on March 24. The uncertainty of short - term crude oil price limited the decline space [4] - The Asia - Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center issued an El Niño warning, indicating that most parts of the world may enter a warming stage in the next few months [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the high price of crude oil, the price of synthetic rubber has risen significantly, which may prompt manufacturers to choose natural rubber as a substitute. The Shanghai rubber fluctuated higher on March 24. The expected slowdown of global economic growth may restrict rubber demand [5] - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons, an increase of 1.18% [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On March 24, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1154 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.9%. As of March 31, the soybean harvest in Brazil was 67.7% complete, behind last year's 76.4%. The market is concerned about the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report [5] - On March 24, the domestic soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.53%. After the relaxation of the inspection of imported Brazilian soybeans, the supply shortage of soybean meal is expected to ease [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On March 24, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10045 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the market supply pattern was loose. The demand was in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern was supply - strong and demand - weak [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On March 24, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated widely, and the main contract P2605 closed with a small negative line. The price decreased by 3.00% compared with the previous trading day [5] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 20 was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main CU2605 contract rebounded and fluctuated, closing at 94030 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25%. The spot price increased, but the discount pattern remained unchanged. The price was supported by factors such as low domestic inventory, but the downstream demand did not show obvious improvement [5] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of March 24, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15210 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 30 lots compared with the previous trading day. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season this year exceeded market expectations [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On March 24, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.55%, closing at 824 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend in the short term [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On March 24, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decline of 3.66%, closing at 4401 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery production plan in April decreased, and the downstream demand started slowly. The asphalt price may follow the oil price in the short term [6] Group 12: Logs - On March 24, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 818, a maximum of 825, and closed at 823, with an increase of 224 lots in positions [6] - The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Future attention should be paid to factors such as spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7] Group 13: Steel - On March 24, rb2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3324 yuan/ton. The international oil price dropped, but the Middle East situation remained complex. The steel market supply and demand increased, and the cost support moved up. The steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [7] Group 14: Alumina - On March 24, ao2605 closed at 3014 yuan/ton. The Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, and the demand for industrial metals was under pressure. In the short term, the alumina price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but in the long term, the new production capacity will suppress the price [7] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On March 24, al2605 closed at 23625 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum price was supported by multiple factors. The Middle East situation affected the aluminum price through price linkage, cost conduction, and market sentiment. The domestic aluminum price had a strong upward drive [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro and micro factors resonate, causing a surge in market panic. Funds flee in a stampede, leading to a breakdown in Shanghai copper prices and testing key support levels [6]. - In the short - term, copper has broken through important psychological support, with the price center shifting downwards and more downside potential. It is recommended to wait for market sentiment to stabilize, avoid blind bottom - fishing or panic selling. Industrial buyers should purchase as needed, increase inventory replenishment during price corrections, and sellers should wait for price rebounds to hedge against upper pressure levels. In the long - term, due to tight copper ore supply, the explosion of green copper demand, national strategic resource security premiums, and intensified Sino - US competition, the long - term trend of copper should not be overly pessimistic [6]. - The focus range for Shanghai copper is [88000, 98000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11500, 12500] US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - Core view: Macro and micro factors resonate, market panic soars, funds flee, and Shanghai copper breaks down to test support [6]. - Strategy outlook: Deterioration of the Middle East situation, inflation concerns reversing global monetary easing expectations, central banks like the Fed turning hawkish, a stronger US dollar suppressing copper prices, high inventory and lackluster peak season lead to a breakdown in copper prices. Wait for a stabilization opportunity. In the short - term, copper breaks through support, price center shifts down. In the long - term, don't be overly pessimistic about copper's trend [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Middle East situation: The situation has escalated, inflation concerns have reversed monetary easing expectations, and the Fed has turned hawkish. On March 19, the federal funds rate remained at 3.50% - 3.75%. The 2026 full - year interest rate cut expectation has dropped from 2 - 3 times at the beginning of the year to only 1 time. The Fed has also raised the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. The US 2 - month PPI exceeded expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The Middle East conflict has led to an out - of - control surge in energy prices, and global central banks have turned hawkish [8][17]. - China's situation: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, LPR has remained unchanged, and February's macro data showed a weak recovery. Industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year, also lower than expected. Fixed - asset investment increased by 3.9% year - on - year, with real estate investment decreasing by 8.5%. In February, new RMB loans were 1.45 trillion yuan, less than expected. The central bank's LPR remained unchanged, and the market's expectation of an interest rate cut was dashed [18][20]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Bullish factors: Increased disturbances in copper ore, low copper concentrate processing fees, calls to include copper concentrates in the storage system, anti - involution in the copper smelting industry at home and abroad, resilient demand in power and new energy vehicles, and rising national security and scarcity premiums for copper [27]. - Bearish factors: The Fed turning hawkish, the ECB and the Bank of England following suit, China's LPR remaining unchanged, market liquidity under pressure, the Middle East situation changing sharply, high market risk - aversion, rising crude oil prices, a stronger US dollar, concerns about the global economic outlook, high copper prices suppressing demand, excessive inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and a short - term decline in speculative enthusiasm [27]. - Copper price performance: As of March 20, LME copper was at 11835 US dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.7%, COMEX copper was at 530.2 cents/pound (equivalent to 11685 US dollars/ton), and Shanghai copper was at 94740 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 5.55% [28]. - Supply: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In February 2026, China imported 2310000 physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 11.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.84%. Copper concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69 tons. It is expected to increase to 1.1952 million tons in March [50][52]. - Demand: The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season has started slowly. Traditional sectors such as real estate and home appliances are dragging down demand, while emerging sectors such as power grid investment, new energy, and AI data centers are providing support [55]. - Inventory: As of March 19, domestic copper social inventory was 523100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26600 tons. SHFE copper inventory was 411100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22300 tons, LME copper inventory was 342300 tons, a weekly increase of 30500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory was 588700 tons, a weekly decrease of 2841 tons [56]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Macro: The Middle East situation has further deteriorated, inflation concerns have reversed global monetary easing expectations, central banks have turned hawkish, the US dollar has strengthened to suppress copper prices, Trump's visit to China has been postponed, and China's LPR has remained unchanged, resulting in market liquidity pressure [88]. - Fundamentals: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, processing fees are at a new low, electrolytic copper production decreased in February and is expected to increase in March, imports have decreased, and global copper inventory is high. After the sharp decline in copper prices this week, downstream procurement has been active, but terminal demand is lackluster [88]. - Strategy: In the short - term, wait for market sentiment to stabilize, avoid blind actions. In the long - term, be less pessimistic about copper's trend. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [88000, 98000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11500, 12500] US dollars/ton [88].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On March 20, the three major A-share indexes showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24% to 3957.05, below 4000 points. The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.25% to 13866.20, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.30% to 3352.10. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 175.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained weak on March 20, closing at 4567.02, a decrease of 16.23 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 20, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1761.7, up 8.4 from the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range fluctuation on March 20, closing at 1210.4 yuan, up 8.1 from the previous day [3] - For coke, coke enterprises' operating loads were stable, inventory decreased, and profit per ton turned positive. Steel mills' operations and molten iron production increased. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. In different regions, the operations in Shanxi were stable, most steel mills in Hebei resumed production, procurement in East China was cautious, and production in Central China improved [4] - For coking coal, Mongolian coal customs clearance remained high, coal washing plants' operations increased, and clean coal inventory decreased slightly. Downstream coke enterprises' operations were stable, coking coal inventory increased, and molten iron production rose. The price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1435 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1350 yuan/ton on the futures market. In different regions, the coal market showed different trends, and the import price of Mongolian coal was differentiated [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Tensions in the Middle East war pushed up energy prices. The market worried that higher energy prices might lead sugar mills in Brazil and India to reduce sugar production and increase ethanol production. Affected by this, the US sugar futures rose on March 20, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract also rose at night [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded on March 20 under the influence of technical factors. As of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,630 tons, an increase of 1580 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 125,440 tons, an increase of 4600 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,686 tons, a decrease of 2016 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 48,082 tons, a decrease of 1209 tons [4][5] Palm Oil - On the night of March 20, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had a narrow - range consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star. The highest price was 9782, the lowest was 9650, and the closing price was 9724. From March 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase from the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 20, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1160.5 cents per bushel, a 0.68% decline. US soybean exports were lower than expected, and China's purchases were low. Brazil's soybean harvest was slow but the harvest was certain. ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in March would reach 16.32 million tons [5] - Domestically, on March 20, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3029 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline. Imported soybeans might be delayed, oil mills' operations were limited, and the inventory of soybean meal was low. Downstream replenishment was active. It was recommended to track South American weather, the Middle East situation, and soybean arrival rhythm [5] Live Pigs - On March 20, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10,220 yuan/ton, a 1.11% decline. Large - scale pig farms' March slaughter plans increased significantly, and the supply was abundant. The post - holiday pork consumption was in the off - season, and the demand was weak. Secondary fattening and slaughter for cold storage were limited [5] Shanghai Copper - On March 20, the main Shanghai copper contract CU2605 closed at 94,740 yuan/ton. The intraday range was 91,820 - 96,400 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 243,300 lots, and the open interest was 201,200 lots (a slight decrease). The spot price of Shanghai No. 1 electrolytic copper was 95,825 yuan/ton, with a premium of 1085 yuan/ton. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance and a stronger US dollar, the price opened low in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. In January, the global refined copper supply had a surplus of 129,300 tons. China's refined copper production from January - February increased by 9%, and copper product production increased by 3.4%. The social inventory decreased continuously [5][6] Logs - On March 20, the main log contract 2605 opened at 814, with a low of 812, a high of 824, and closed at 823.5, with an increase of 1409 lots in open interest. The spot price of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. It was recommended to follow the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] Iron Ore - On March 20, the main iron ore contract 2605 rose 1.05% to 815.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, port inventory accumulated, and steel mills' demand for molten iron increased. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On March 20, the main asphalt contract 2606 fell 3.88% to 4457 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, inventory increased slightly, downstream demand had not started, and refinery shipments decreased. The asphalt price might follow the oil price [6] Cotton - On the night of March 20, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,305 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 37 lots from the previous day. China showed an open attitude towards buying more US agricultural products, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed [6] Steel - In March, with the temperature rising, downstream construction sites entered the peak season, and demand gradually recovered. Infrastructure was the main support for the demand recovery in March. From January - February, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 11.4% year - on - year. In the first half of March, the steel price was strong due to rising raw material costs and recovering demand [6] Alumina - The cost of alumina was supported by the rising price of bauxite from Guinea. The supply of alumina increased due to rising imports and new production capacity. The demand for alumina was expected to increase as domestic electrolytic aluminum plants' operations were stable and there might be export demand [6] Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material cost of aluminum increased due to geopolitical factors, and the theoretical profit of smelters was good. The supply of aluminum ingots was abundant, and the social inventory was at a high level and still increasing. With the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, the downstream demand for aluminum increased after the price decline. However, due to geopolitical factors, the aluminum price was under pressure, and downstream purchasing became more cautious [8]