Group 1: Oil Price Projections - A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, with initial estimates suggesting a range of $90-100 per barrel under severe supply disruptions[5] - In a pessimistic scenario, a complete disruption could lead to a nominal supply shock of up to 20 million barrels per day, resulting in a structural net gap of approximately 11 million barrels per day[6] - If disruptions last over 14-30 days, Brent crude prices could test or exceed $100-120 per barrel, contingent on escalating geopolitical tensions lasting over six months[6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Global oil demand is projected to reach 106.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[12] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that OPEC's oil demand will be approximately 42.4 million barrels per day in 2027, with a slight increase of 0.6% from the previous year[12] - Non-OPEC supply is expected to stabilize around 79.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with a net increase of 1.4%[12] Group 3: Cost and Breakeven Analysis - OPEC's production costs are generally below $15-20 per barrel, with Saudi Aramco's costs around $3-4 per barrel[8] - North American shale producers require a breakeven price of $60-70 per barrel for new drilling, while existing wells can operate at $30-40 per barrel[8] - Offshore projects typically need oil prices of $40-50 per barrel to be economically viable, with deepwater developments requiring $45-50 per barrel[8]