由于中国采购量增加以及贸易商为应对欧佩克+可能释放的更多原油供应提前调整仓位布局推高了油轮 运费，美国原油对亚洲买家的吸引力正逐步下降。 此外，贸易商还指出，中东原油市场指标正快速走弱，具体表现为迪拜原油基准价差收窄，以及阿曼原 油、穆尔班原油等品种的价差同步缩小。这意味着，与远道而来的美洲原油相比，邻近的波斯湾国家原 油价格将更具竞争力。 值得注意的是，就在欧佩克+持续向市场增加原油供应的同时，美国国内原油市场却出现了供应趋紧的 初步迹象。美国政府数据显示，该国原油库存已连续第二周下降，目前库存水平降至今年1月以来的最 低水平。 据知情贸易商透露，中国炼油企业正抓紧下单采购原油，确保货物能在年底前到港，以用尽中国政府发 放的进口配额。这一需求直接推高了超大型油轮(VLCC)的使用率，导致可用于美洲至亚洲航线的油轮 数量减少。 波罗的海交易所数据显示，当前美国至中国航线的VLCC日租金已超过7万美元。尽管这一数字低于中 东至中国航线9万美元的日租金水平，但美洲航线的耗时至少多出两周，这使得整体运输成本大幅增 加。 利用地区价差从美国向亚洲出口原油的所谓"套利贸易"已成为近几个月现货市场的显著特征。本周印度 巴 ...

Core Insights - The international crude oil market is experiencing a rare reversal in its pricing structure due to expectations of oversupply and geopolitical factors [1] - Brent crude futures prices fell below Dubai crude by 3 cents per barrel, marking the first negative spread since April of this year [1] - This price inversion indicates significant changes in the supply-demand fundamentals in the key European and Asian markets [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary factor leading to the weakening of Brent prices is the market's pessimistic outlook on future supply [1] - Traders expect that both OPEC+ and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will increase production, resulting in an oversupply situation in the coming months [1] - This expectation has not only depressed the forward prices of Brent futures but also weakened the inter-month price spread, which typically signals ample short-term supply and a bearish market sentiment [1] Geopolitical Influences - Demand for Middle Eastern crude has been unexpectedly boosted by geopolitical factors [1] - Reports indicate that U.S. President Trump is pressuring India regarding the procurement of Russian oil, leading Indian refiners to seek alternative supplies from the Middle East [1] - As most crude oil exported from the Persian Gulf is priced based on Dubai crude, this additional demand has provided stronger support for Dubai prices compared to Brent, ultimately driving the reversal in their price spread [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to U.S. President Trump's actions against Russian oil supplies and expectations of an oil surplus later this year, the global benchmark Brent crude oil price is unusually lower than Middle Eastern oil prices [1][4] - Brent crude futures are trading at a discount of 3 cents per barrel compared to Dubai crude for the first time since April [1] - Traders anticipate a significant influx of oil in the coming months as both OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries are increasing oil production, which is putting pressure on Brent futures [4] Group 2 - The increase in oil production is weakening the time spread, an indicator of market health [4] - Demand for Middle Eastern crude has seen a temporary boost due to a buying spree from Indian refiners, influenced by pressure from Trump regarding India's purchases of Russian oil [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unusual situation where Brent crude oil prices have fallen below Middle Eastern oil prices due to Trump's actions against Russian oil supply and an anticipated oversupply later this year [1] - Brent crude futures are trading at a discount of 3 cents per barrel relative to Dubai crude, marking the first time since April that this price differential has turned negative [1] - The increase in production by OPEC+ and non-member countries is expected to lead to an oversupply in the oil market in the coming months, putting pressure on Brent crude futures and weakening the time spread, which is an indicator of market health [1] Group 2 - The demand for Middle Eastern crude has been boosted by a brief surge in purchases from Indian refiners, prompted by Trump's threats regarding India's purchase of Russian oil [1]

Core Viewpoint - Asian refiners are diversifying their crude oil sources beyond traditional Middle Eastern suppliers, but this strategy has not successfully boosted the market amid expectations of an oversupply in the crude oil market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Asia consumes about 40% of the world's oil, historically relying on the Persian Gulf for crude supply [1]. - U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and foreign policies have prompted refiners to purchase crude from the U.S., Brazil, and Nigeria [1]. - The surge in light sweet crude oil purchases was expected to support Brent crude prices, but the price premium of Brent over Dubai crude has fallen to its lowest level since April [1]. - Market expectations indicate that crude oil oversupply will begin in the next quarter due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Global average daily oil production has increased by 1.4 million barrels compared to the same period in 2025, exceeding the International Energy Agency's (IEA) demand growth forecast [2]. - Analysts predict a weakening of market demand in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year [2]. - The reallocation of crude oil flows due to Trump's policies has created uncertainty and volatility in the market [2]. - The IEA forecasts that global oil demand growth will be less than half of 2023's rate in the coming years [5]. Group 3: Price Competitiveness - The narrowing price gap between Brent and Dubai crude allows U.S. and West African crude to enter the Asian market at more competitive prices [3]. - Increased demand for U.S. crude has raised prices along the U.S. Gulf Coast, but has not supported broader domestic benchmark prices [5]. - Major banks are bearish on oil prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent crude will slightly decline to the mid-$60 range by year-end [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]

Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - As the summer power generation demand declines, Middle - East crude oil exports will gradually increase. With the end of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 74 cents to $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 71 cents to $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.71% at 528 yuan per barrel [1] - Iran has set new conditions for restarting nuclear talks with the Trump administration. The Iranian Foreign Minister said the US must compensate for the losses during the Iran - Israel conflict last month, explain its attack during the talks, and guarantee no similar attacks in the future [1] - Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil last week due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats [1] - President Trump said the fastest way to end the Gaza humanitarian crisis is for Hamas to surrender and release hostages [1] - In the fourth quarter, Asia is expected to increase imports of US WTI crude oil because the price increase of Middle - East crude oil has opened an arbitrage window. Western Oil has sold WTI crude oil to Japan's Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for October delivery [1] Investment Logic - As the end of summer approaches, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October, unless Saudi Arabia deliberately controls exports. The impact of the maintenance of the Upper Zakum oil field in the UAE is limited [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - Asian countries are expected to increase imports of US WTI crude oil in Q4 due to rising Middle Eastern oil prices, which have created an arbitrage opportunity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of Middle Eastern crude oil, specifically Dubai and Murban benchmarks, has risen, leading to a narrowing price gap with low-sulfur light US WTI crude oil [1] - Strong demand for high-sulfur crude oil in Asia has contributed to the increased interest in US WTI imports [1] Group 2: Trade Activity - A notable arbitrage window for WTI crude oil has been open for Asian markets, particularly for shipments arriving in early November [1] - Western oil producers, such as Occidental Petroleum, have sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiners like Taiyo Oil at a premium of approximately $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil price [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Crude oil [1] - Report cycle: Weekly [1] - Report date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Core Views - From June 16 - 22, 2025, Brent crude oil futures fluctuated upward with a weekly increase of 2.5%, reaching a nearly 5 - month high of $79.04 per barrel. Geopolitical risks were the core driving factor, and the summer demand peak season and OPEC+ supply strategy adjustment also supported the price. The market showed dual characteristics of "risk - premium dominance and fundamental support" [3] Group 3: Futures Market Overview - From June 16 - 20, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures August contract closed at $77.32 per barrel last Friday with a weekly amplitude of 3.43%. The WTI crude oil futures August contract closed at $74.04 per barrel with a gain of 3.51%. The main crude oil contract SC2512 on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange reported 566.6 yuan per barrel, with a maximum of 582.9 yuan per barrel, a minimum of 508.3 yuan per barrel, and a weekly increase of 8.82% [3] Group 4: Spot Market Analysis - The spot premium in the Middle East continued, and Dubai crude oil was at a premium of about $2 per barrel compared to Brent futures [5]

Group 1 - The spread between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil has reached its highest level since September 2023 [1]