Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the heightened tensions following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply [1][2] - Two supertankers, Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty, altered their course in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating immediate market reactions to geopolitical tensions, with one vessel returning to the strait and the other remaining outside the Persian Gulf [1][2] - Brent crude oil futures experienced a significant fluctuation, dropping approximately 6% from intraday highs, yet analysts warn that the risk of closure could push prices above $120 per barrel [1][3] Group 2 - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route, with about 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily, and even partial disruptions could significantly impact global oil transportation [2] - Analysts from RBC Capital Markets caution that it may take days or weeks to assess Iran's true response to the situation, emphasizing that the risk is not yet over [2] - Strategic restraint from Iran has been noted, as they have not escalated to more severe actions, but limited actions could still lead shipping companies to avoid the region [2] Group 3 - Multiple investment banks have issued warnings about the potential for oil prices to surge, with JPMorgan predicting prices could reach $130 per barrel and Goldman Sachs suggesting a worst-case scenario of $150 per barrel [3] - UBS highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to disruptions greater than those experienced during the 2022 Russian supply crisis, potentially driving prices above $120 [3] - The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran is expected to have significant implications for international oil prices, with potential price spikes affecting stock and currency markets [3]