来源：参考消息 责任编辑：凌辰 据参考消息援引德国《法兰克福评论报》网站1月25日报道，美国和伊朗之间的紧张关系处于顶峰。伊 朗政权准备应对袭击。据欧洲新闻电视台报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊已进入德黑兰一处加固地堡。据 说该地堡和隧道系统相连，能抵御空袭。 据称，哈梅内伊的日常事务已由他的三儿子马苏德·哈梅内伊接管。他还负责维系其父与政府之间的沟 通。伊朗方面未透露哈梅内伊当下所在地。 报道称，过去几周，特朗普的警告让伊朗和美国的紧张关系进一步升级。特朗普威胁将"采取强硬措 施"。他在接受美国《政治报》采访时甚至谈到了政权更迭："现在是时候为伊朗寻找新领导人了。" 美国海军的确已向当地派出多支部队。特朗普宣布，"大量舰船正驶向伊朗方向"。据美国媒体报道，其 中包括"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰。此外，美国还部署了多个战斗机中队。 伊朗用严厉的威胁回应美国的警告。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬警告说，任何针对哈梅内伊的袭击都等同 于"对伊朗发起全面战争"。伊朗陆军司令阿里·贾汉沙希表示，武装部队必须"团结一致"，并准备好"付 出一切代价"捍卫国家，"直至牺牲"。 报道称，过去几周，特朗普的警告让伊朗和美国的紧张关系进一步升级。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the heightened tensions following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply [1][2] - Two supertankers, Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty, altered their course in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating immediate market reactions to geopolitical tensions, with one vessel returning to the strait and the other remaining outside the Persian Gulf [1][2] - Brent crude oil futures experienced a significant fluctuation, dropping approximately 6% from intraday highs, yet analysts warn that the risk of closure could push prices above $120 per barrel [1][3] Group 2 - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route, with about 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily, and even partial disruptions could significantly impact global oil transportation [2] - Analysts from RBC Capital Markets caution that it may take days or weeks to assess Iran's true response to the situation, emphasizing that the risk is not yet over [2] - Strategic restraint from Iran has been noted, as they have not escalated to more severe actions, but limited actions could still lead shipping companies to avoid the region [2] Group 3 - Multiple investment banks have issued warnings about the potential for oil prices to surge, with JPMorgan predicting prices could reach $130 per barrel and Goldman Sachs suggesting a worst-case scenario of $150 per barrel [3] - UBS highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to disruptions greater than those experienced during the 2022 Russian supply crisis, potentially driving prices above $120 [3] - The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran is expected to have significant implications for international oil prices, with potential price spikes affecting stock and currency markets [3]