油化工行业整顿
Search documents
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250826
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 09:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of styrene are still weak, but the expectation of improved supply - demand in September and the expectation of rectification in the oil - chemical industry support the October contract, resulting in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Technically, EB2510 should focus on the support around 7200 and the pressure around 7500 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) is 7257, and the trading volume of the previous 20 positions' buy orders is 318745 hands. The closing price of the November contract is 7276 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan. The futures holding volume (active contract) is 295747 hands, and the net buy order volume of the previous 20 positions is - 48401 hands, a decrease of 10967 hands. The sell order volume of the previous 20 positions is 367146 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts is 650 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7624 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 895.5 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The CFR China intermediate price is 905.5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7310 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), 7480 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 7370 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), and 7355 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 841 US dollars/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 831 US dollars/ton. The CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 822.5 US dollars/ton, and the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf, Taiwan, Rotterdam, South China, East China, and North China markets are 264 US cents/gallon, 744.67 US dollars/ton, 675 US dollars/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, 6055 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and 6130 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total styrene production from August 15th to 21st was 370,800 tons, a 0.46% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.53%, a 0.35% increase. The national styrene inventory is 206,476 tons, a decrease of 2241 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 179,000 tons, and the trade inventory is 84,000 tons, an increase of 7500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 60.98% (up 2.9%), 71.1% (unchanged), 57.5% (up 1.1%), 34% (up 2%), and 68.16% (down 3.94%) respectively. From August 15th to 21st, the consumption of the main downstream products of styrene was 270,600 tons, a 2.81% increase from the previous week [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, China's styrene factory production increased by 0.46% to 370,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.35% to 78.53%. The consumption of the main downstream products increased by 2.81% to 270,600 tons. As of August 21st, the factory sample inventory decreased by 1.07% to 206,500 tons [2]
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - EB2510 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,330 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the fundamentals of styrene remain weak, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement in September and the expectation of rectification in the oil and chemical industry provide some support for the October contract, resulting in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Technically, EB2510 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the resistance around 7,500 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7,330 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 318,745. The closing price of the November contract was 7,342 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 351,235, a decrease of 60,572. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 23,439 lots, a decrease of 10,967, and the short position was 17,766 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 688, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,594 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 899.5 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China intermediate price was 909.5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7,510 yuan/ton, 7,375 yuan/ton, 7,525 yuan/ton, and 7,375 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 831 US dollars/ton, 744.67 US dollars/ton, 822.5 US dollars/ton, and 457 US dollars/ton respectively, with some price changes. The prices of pure benzene in different regions also had corresponding changes [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.53%, an increase of 0.35%. The national inventory was 206,476 tons, a decrease of 2,241 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 161,500 tons, and the trade inventory was 76,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 60.98%, 71.1%, 57.5%, 34%, and 68.16% respectively, with some changes [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, China's styrene factory output was 370,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.53%, a year - on - year increase of 0.35%. The consumption of downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 270,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. As of August 21st, the sample inventory of styrene factories was 206,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [2] 3.7 Outlook - This week, domestic styrene plants are expected to operate stably, and the high - production state of the industry may continue. Multiple large - scale plants will be under centralized maintenance in September, which may relieve the supply pressure. The downstream industry has both shutdown and restarting plants, and the terminal demand lacks positive factors, so styrene consumption is difficult to increase significantly. The situation of supply exceeding demand in the spot market is expected to continue, and the inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited, and the recent international oil price has rebounded, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices [2]