1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term. Short the spread (long far - month and short near - month, Brent or WTI) [3] 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the end of the US government shutdown, Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, and sanctions on Lukoil have provided some support to oil prices. However, the high in - transit inventory at sea remains unsolved. Although OPEC decided not to increase quotas in Q1 next year, its recent exports reached a new high for the year. Facing the seasonal off - peak in Q1 next year, OPEC needs to implement substantial production cuts. If OPEC does not act, oil prices may need to drop to $50 per barrel to reduce US shale oil production. Currently, the oil market is in a passive inventory accumulation period [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 91 cents to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery rose $1.10 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.11% at 469 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's seaborne crude oil shipments have declined for three consecutive weeks, reaching a two - month low. In the four weeks ending November 9, Russia transported 3.45 million barrels of crude oil per day, about 130,000 barrels less than the same period ending November 2 [1] - Ukraine claimed to have launched a second attack on a key Russian refinery in the Volga region this month. The refinery can process about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day and has been targeted by Ukrainian drones multiple times this year, with the latest on November 3 [1] - In 2025, Russia's crude oil shipments to Asia via the Northern Sea Route decreased by 4.2% compared to 2024. Russian oil exporters shipped 1.83 million tons (about 13.41 million barrels) of crude oil via this route this year [1] - India has reduced its planned purchases of Russian crude oil for December, indicating that Western sanctions and trade negotiations with the US have significantly affected India's procurement pattern [1] - Lukoil declared force majeure on the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it might withdraw from the project if the situation persists [1] Investment Logic - In the short term, the end of the US government shutdown, Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, and sanctions on Lukoil support oil prices. But the high in - transit inventory at sea is a problem. OPEC's exports are at a new high for the year. Facing the Q1 seasonal off - peak, OPEC needs to cut production. If not, oil prices may drop to $50 per barrel to reduce US shale oil production. The oil market is in a passive inventory accumulation period [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term. Short the spread (long far - month and short near - month, Brent or WTI) [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US lifting sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]