Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is entering a potentially volatile December after a weak month with minimal price fluctuations, leading market participants to focus on upcoming production negotiations, supply structure changes, and cross-regional logistics [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Forecasts - The forecast for oil prices in 2026 has been revised down to approximately $62 per barrel, primarily due to anticipated oversupply [4] - Various institutions predict inventory increases ranging from 500,000 to 4.2 million barrels per day, indicating a consensus on rising supply despite differing estimates [4] - The average WTI price for next year is expected to be around $59, slightly below the cost line for some new well blocks, providing a natural support for future oil prices [4] Group 2: Shipping and Regional Price Structures - Shipping costs are expected to ease, potentially accelerating the flow of Atlantic Basin crude oil to Asian markets, which will further impact regional price structures [4] - The average price of ICE Brent from January to November 2025 is projected at $68.8 per barrel, showing a significant decline from the previous year, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding demand uncertainty [4] Group 3: Energy Market Dynamics - Global energy companies are actively involved in block acquisitions, pipeline asset consolidations, and major infrastructure adjustments, affecting market dynamics [2][4] - Rising natural gas demand in various regions has led to prices reaching multi-year highs, while some major smelting groups have announced production cuts, driving metal prices to record levels [2][4] - The tightening supply-demand trend across different commodities is expected to have spillover effects on energy costs, alternative demand, and related investment sentiment [2][4] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events remain a core variable affecting supply and demand, with key pipelines experiencing temporary disruptions due to drone attacks or technical issues, leading to increased shipping insurance rates [5] - Energy policies and project decisions in multiple countries, including an increase in natural gas usage and adjustments in overseas project financing, add layers of complexity to regional markets [5] - December is seen as a critical window for supply negotiations, climate factors, and geopolitical interactions, with the potential for supply-demand balance to be disrupted [5]