1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase, with slightly improved supply - demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances to copper prices. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and the adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is under pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mining and smelting ends. The smelting cost will support zinc prices. The demand is relatively stable, and there is a possibility of opening up the export space. The zinc price has limited room for further significant decline, and the main contract is supported around 23,000 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated, and the downstream consumption is gradually recovering. With the improvement of market risk preference, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long positions, and subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon price has a negative impact. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of trying long at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the minimum cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long after the price stabilizes and pay attention to position control and stop - loss [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices. The electrolytic aluminum price has strong anti - decline attributes, and the short - term core operating range is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The Indonesian policy, macro - expectations, and raw material contradictions support the price, but the slow inventory digestion restricts it. The nickel price is expected to oscillate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to operate in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [16]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw material shortages. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance expectations are repeated, the short - term marginal driving force of the fundamentals is weakened but still has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range, and the main contract is expected to be between 153,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%. The import volume was 15.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.95% [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99%. The import volume was 0.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81.26% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The SMM 1 tin premium is 2,000 yuan/ton [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 510 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In February, the tin ore import was 17,144 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.91% [8]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54%. The basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 10.42% from the previous day [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 8,352 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in March was 32.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.66%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 20.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.94% [10]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, down 1.91% from the previous day. The N - type material basis is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 22.22% from the previous day [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61%. The import volume was 0.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.97% [12]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 100 yuan/ton [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The AL 2604 - 2605 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, the alumina production was 729.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.56%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 383.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.73% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, down 21.05% from the previous day [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 2,700 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in February was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45%. The import volume was 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.63% [14]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Jiangxi Baotai network ADC12 - A00 spread is - 410 yuan/ton, down 24.24% from the previous day [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 20.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99% [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 64.00% from the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April was 190.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.07%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 37.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate basis is 5,800 yuan/ton, up 181.46% from the previous day [21]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 840 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The demand was 111,503 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase. The supply - side copper mine TC is at a record low, and the port inventory is seasonally low. Refined copper production is expected to remain high. Demand has recovered, but downstream procurement sentiment is still weak when prices rebound. Global visible inventories are starting to decline. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to long - term long - order layout opportunities, with the main contract focusing on the 97,000 - 98,000 pressure level [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mine end and the smelting end. The zinc mine TC in the first quarter of 2026 is weak. Although the smelting profit is under pressure, the smelting end has not seen large - scale production cuts due to high by - product profits. The demand side is relatively stable, and the processing industry's operating rate has continued to rise in the first quarter. If overseas prices strengthen, the zinc ingot export space may open again. Considering the low ratio of finished product inventory to raw material inventory in the processing industry, there is room for restocking. The domestic zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The zinc price is supported by smelting costs, and the downward space is limited. The main contract should pay attention to the support around 23,000 [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated. The processing fees of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased, and the cumulative import volume of tin ore from January to February has increased significantly. The JFX exchange trading volume in February is expected to stabilize Indonesia's export level. The downstream consumption of tin is gradually recovering, with some traditional consumption being slightly weak, and the photovoltaic demand has slightly improved. With the market risk preference restored, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long orders and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon prices has spread panic to the industrial silicon sector. The supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large. Low - price and loss - making situations will suppress the resumption of production in the southwest region. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - side fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to try long positions at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. Many enterprises have production increase expectations, which will open up the downward space for spot prices. The current spot price is approaching the unit cost and moving towards the cash cost. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing. It is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss settings [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a stage of relative over - capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line in the long - term. The new low - cost capacity in Guangxi will be gradually released in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices in the short - term. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by the supply - side due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The LME aluminum inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic market demand has recovered. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April. The short - term core operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The nickel market has a complex situation. The Indonesian government plans to levy export taxes on nickel products, and the raw material supply is tight. The high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong, but the steel mills have a strong price - pressing attitude. The supply of refined nickel still has pressure. The overseas market is gently de - stocking, while the domestic market is still accumulating inventory. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the second quarter, the demand for casting aluminum alloy is seasonally weak, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The industry is in a weak - balance state. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and it follows the electrolytic aluminum price. It is necessary to track macro events and domestic tax policy changes [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is affected by macro and raw material news. The raw material supply is tight, and the high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong. The steel mills' production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The short - term price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fell significantly. The policy news from Zimbabwe has affected the market sentiment. The fundamental data of lithium carbonate remains resilient, with both supply and demand increasing. The upstream salt - factory supply is gradually increasing, and the demand is generally optimistic. The social inventory has started to accumulate. The short - term market may adjust, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 153,000 - 160,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference is - 251 yuan/ton, with a significant decline [1]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.153 million tons, a decrease of 24.95% month - on - month [1]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The import copper concentrate index is - 68.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.27% week - on - week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 0.5747 million tons, an increase of 12.25% week - on - week. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 83.17%, an increase of 1.66% week - on - week; the recycled copper rod operating rate is 5.83%, a decrease of 8.99% week - on - week [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 0.4031 million tons, a decrease of 13.81% week - on - week; the bonded area inventory is 0.0582 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the SHFE inventory is 0.3591 million tons, a decrease of 12.64% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import profit and loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.67 yuan compared with the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.0045 million tons, a decrease of 81.26% month - on - month; the export volume was 0.0039 million tons, an increase of 91.58% month - on - month [5]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The galvanizing operating rate is 58.88%, a decrease of 0.82% week - on - week; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate is 51.80%, an increase of 0.19% week - on - week; the zinc oxide operating rate is 55.50%, an increase of 0.14% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 0.2482 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.115 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% day - on - day [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The import profit and loss is - 6,623.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% [8]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, a decrease of 3.69% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month; the refined tin import volume was 2,168 tons, an increase of 96.91% month - on - month; the refined tin export volume was 1,216 tons, a decrease of 24.14% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHEF inventory is 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.35% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,102 tons, a decrease of 17.08% week - on - week; the SHEF warehouse receipt is 6,775 tons, a decrease of 3.75% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis (based on SI5530) is 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.42% [10]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 329,900 tons, an increase of 19.66% month - on - month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 209,800 tons, an increase of 25.94% month - on - month; the Yunnan industrial silicon production is 14,800 tons, an increase of 10.86% month - on - month; the Sichuan industrial silicon production is 900 tons, an increase of DIV/0! month - on - month [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory is 33,200 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week; the social inventory is 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.27% week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.91%. The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% [12]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer production is 11.38 GM, a decrease of 3.40% week - on - week; the multi - layer silicon production is 19,400 tons, an increase of 2.11% week - on - week [12]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month; the polysilicon import volume is 1,600 tons, an increase of 54.97% month - on - month; the polysilicon export volume is 2,200 tons, an increase of 20.51% month - on - month [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The polysilicon inventory is 332,000 tons, a decrease of 3.49% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory is 26.98 CM, a decrease of 2.42% month - on - month; the polysilicon warehouse receipt is 11,030 tons, an increase of 0.09% day - on - day [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 4,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.3 yuan compared with the previous value [13]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In March, the alumina production was 7.2974 million tons, an increase of 10.56% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8311 million tons, an increase of 10.73% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.5725 million tons, an increase of 8.46% month - on - month [13]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The alumina operating rate is 76.43%, a decrease of 0.27% week - on - week; the aluminum profile operating rate is 59.00%, an increase of 7.27% week - on - week; the aluminum cable operating rate is 66.00%, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.373 million tons, an increase of 2.69% week - on - week; the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory is 0.3215 million tons, a decrease of 5.86% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.417 million tons, a decrease of 0.45% day - on - day [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.05% [14]. - **Cost Data**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% month - on - month; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowon nickel is 141,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.34% month - on - month [14]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, an increase of 84.63% month - on - month [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE inventory is 64,479 tons, an increase of 1.28% week - on - week; the social inventory is 89,808 tons, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 281,526 tons, a decrease of 0.02% day - on - day [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference is - 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.24% [16]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 209,300 tons, a decrease of 30.99% month - on - month; the scrap aluminum production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 33.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate is 31.34%, a decrease of 41.87% week - on - week; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate is 44.73%, a decrease of 23.59% week - on - week [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 33,700 tons,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon market is expected to be weak. The market anticipates significant production cuts in the future. This week, production decreased month - on - month, demand declined slightly, and the overall supply - demand remains in an oversupply state. There are concerns about the supply of raw materials for overseas mines, which may affect the mining rhythm in the long term. The price of port manganese ore has risen significantly, and the immediate production profit of alloy plants has been mostly consumed by manganese ore. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy of near - weak and far - strong [3]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is also expected to be weak. The tight balance of supply and demand has eased, the overall production cost is relatively firm, production has decreased slightly, and the production of magnesium metal has declined significantly from its high level. Factory quotes have increased, and low - priced goods are hard to find in the market. The market still has expectations of cost increases in the coal - related industrial chain due to crude oil shortages, and price fluctuations are relatively large. Fundamentally, it is recommended to take a bearish stance, but be vigilant about future coal - related prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 474.5 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 341.4 tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, and Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 132.6 tons, also significantly higher than the same period last year [14]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore decreased slightly to 237.2 tons, the inventory of Gabon ore decreased significantly to 21.9 tons, far lower than the same period last year, and the inventory of Australian ore decreased significantly to 43.7 tons, still higher than the same period last year [18]. Manganese Ore Price - In Tianjin Port, the price of Gabon lumps is 48 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 47 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 44 yuan/ton - degree. The manganese ore market is running strongly, and most market transactions are of a trading nature, while factories are cautious in purchasing and mostly only replenish a small amount of essential inventory [20]. Production - As of March 27, the weekly production of silicon - manganese increased to 19.17 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly to 14,460 tons/day, in Ningxia decreased slightly to 5,705 tons/day, in Yunnan increased to 890 tons/day, in Guizhou increased to 1,905 tons/day, and in Guangxi increased to 1,970 tons/day [32]. Demand - As of March 27, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 11.88 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 839.58 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased significantly month - on - month [37]. Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 6,230 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 6,300 yuan/ton. A large steel group in Hebei set the purchase price at 6,150 yuan/ton in March and replenished 5,100 tons this week [50]. Chemical Coke Price - This week, the price of chemical coke increased slightly by 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [53]. Production Profit - The point - to - point profit of manganese silicon has improved significantly [57]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of manganese silicon was - 58 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [60]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis has strengthened slightly. As of March 26, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28.85 tons [64]. Ferrosilicon Production - As of March 27, on the supply side, the weekly production was 10.21 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,275 tons, in Qinghai was 1,535 tons, in Ningxia was 4,080 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,210 tons [76]. Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills totaled 1.93 tons, lower than the same period last year [80]. - The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2,515 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 17,050 yuan/ton, increasing slightly month - on - month. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 19,446 tons, decreasing slightly month - on - month but higher than the same period last year. Recently, the prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon have been high, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased accordingly. Low - priced goods in the market are hard to find. Some traders said they are mainly inquiring and not in a hurry to stock up [84]. Export - As of March 27, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1,205 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon was 1,135 US dollars/ton, increasing significantly month - on - month. The export volume of ferrosilicon decreased in February [87]. Raw Material Situation - As of March 27, the quotes of mainstream regional semi - coke small materials remained stable. The current prices are 705 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 695 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale is 730 yuan/ton [95]. Production Profit - As of March 26, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon has improved significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are 156, 225, 101, and - 193 yuan/ton respectively [110]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of ferrosilicon was - 80 yuan/ton, weakening significantly month - on - month [113]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuates slightly. As of March 26, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5.81 tons, higher than the same period last year [116]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [119]. Ferrosilicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate has increased, with last week's production at 24,814 tons, 59% higher than the historical average. The demand side shows an increase in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. The cost side varies, with different production profits for different raw materials. The overall inventory is increasing, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 167,160 - 177,280 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the high - level supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased last week, with lithium carbonate production at 24,814 tons, 59% higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 159,158 yuan/ton, with a loss of 2,142 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 151,428 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3,273 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On March 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 164,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 7,120 yuan/ton, showing a spot discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 17,332 tons, a 4.36% increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 46,657 tons, a 1.20% increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 35,500 tons, a 1.82% decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 99,489 tons, a 0.62% increase, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above the MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% increase. The import volume is expected to increase by 19.27%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased daily, and the demand - leading situation has weakened. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 167,160 - 177,280 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and other upstream products have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 2,230 to 2,313 US dollars/ton, a 3.72% increase [14]. - **Disk Prices and Basis**: The prices of various lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have changed. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 158,000 to 164,500 yuan/ton, a 4.11% increase [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) has changed over time. The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has different trends. The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends and changes [31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed. The production from smelting and causticizing sources also shows different trends [40]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time. The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene also shows different proportions [46]. - The profit of lithium carbonate import, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, and lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate has changed [46][49]. 3.5 Inventory - The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) has changed. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts has also increased [54]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery - Power Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries have changed. The cost of power battery cells has also changed [57]. - **Lithium Battery - Energy Storage**: The inventory, winning bid situation, production, and cost of energy - storage batteries have changed [59]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, and production of ternary precursors have changed. The supply - demand balance also shows different situations [62][65]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, production, and inventory of ternary materials have changed [70][73]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, and production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [74]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The spot price is stable, while the futures price has declined due to the failure to reach production control. In the second quarter, it is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [1] Tin - In the short - term, tin prices may show a weak and volatile trend due to the Middle - East situation. In the long - term, there is a bullish logic. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices. [2] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in April. The market is currently inactive, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Copper - Copper prices have entered an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, and the inventory pressure has weakened. However, the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. [5] Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The smelting cost supports the zinc price, and there is potential for downstream restocking and export. The price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound can be considered. [7] Nickel - The Indonesian policy and raw material contradictions support the nickel price, but the slow digestion of inventory restricts it. The nickel price is expected to run in a strong range. [9] Aluminum - Alumina is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by the Middle - East situation and is expected to run in the range of 23,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw materials. The demand is gradually recovering, but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. [13] Lithium Carbonate - The supply - side news has boosted the market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient. It is expected to run in a strong range. [15] Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to run in the range of 22,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. [17] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged on March 27 compared to March 26, while the basis of some varieties increased. [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.26% on March 27 compared to March 26, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and the production of related downstream products all decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon also decreased. [1] - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly. [1] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased, while the SMM 1 tin premium decreased. [2] - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. [2] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The import of tin ore, the production of refined tin, and the开工率 of related enterprises changed. The export volume of refined tin decreased, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin increased. [2] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories in SHEF, social, SHEF warehouse receipts, and LME all decreased. [2] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. [3] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [3] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of silicon wafers decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased on a weekly basis but decreased on a monthly basis. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed. [3] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased. [3] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of electrolytic copper decreased slightly, and the premium of some varieties changed. The refined - scrap price difference decreased significantly. [5] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic ports increased. The开工率 of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [5] Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the premium changed. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of refined zinc decreased, while the export volume increased. The开工 rates of related industries changed slightly. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly. [7] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of nickel decreased, and the premium of some varieties decreased. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased slightly, and the futures import profit increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio increased. [9] - **Electrowinning Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrowinning nickel changed. [9] - **New Energy Material Price**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the prices of other new energy materials remained unchanged. [9] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel decreased, while the import volume increased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [9] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze A00 aluminum increased. The prices of alumina in different regions increased slightly. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. Some monthly spreads changed. [11] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum decreased. The开工 rates of related industries changed. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [11] Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. The prices of some raw materials decreased slightly. [13] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The import, export, and net export volumes of stainless steel changed significantly. The inventories of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The basis decreased. The prices of lithium ore increased. [15] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [15] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased. The import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The capacity increased slightly, and the开工 rate decreased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased. [15] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of aluminum alloy increased. The average monthly price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased. Some monthly spreads changed. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The开工 rates of related industries decreased. The social inventory, factory - finished inventory, and raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The daily inventories in different regions changed. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a volatile decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, geopolitical risks, import contraction, and the pace of downstream resumption. The supply side was the core support, while the demand side was significantly affected by the holiday. The cost side had limited support for methanol. In March, methanol is expected to be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [8]. - In the second quarter of 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand repair, and risk mitigation. The domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of supply repair, demand verification, inventory re - balancing, and increased macro - constraints. The price is likely to fluctuate and decline at a high level [124]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Methanol Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a unilateral market of low - level volatility and a sharp pulse - like rise in March. The main contract started at around 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, fluctuated narrowly from January to February, and soared in March, with a maximum quarterly increase of over 50% [13]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around four main lines: import contraction, high domestic supply with limited elasticity, external - strong and internal - weak demand with rigid support, and a phased relief of inventory pressure. Macro and capital factors amplified the price fluctuations [14]. 3.2 Continued Divergence of the European and American Economies and a Decline in the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Since 2026, the European and American macro - economies have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy is stable with controllable inflation and resilient employment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery with greater growth pressure [17]. - In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of converging divergence and mild recovery. The US economy is likely to remain stable, and the eurozone may experience a slight recovery [20]. 3.3 Steady and Positive Development of the Domestic Economy from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new drivers grew rapidly, and employment and prices were generally stable [33]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy is expected to continue its steady and upward trend, with the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% more firmly based [36]. 3.4 Slight Increase in China's Coal Imports from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, the domestic coal market showed a pattern of stable domestic supply, high - then - low imports, and weak prices. The coal price decline led to a downward shift in the cost line of methanol, causing the methanol futures to decline [52]. - In Q2, coal prices are likely to continue the "weak and volatile, central - downward" trend, which will continue to suppress the methanol futures [56]. 3.5 Spring Maintenance and Demand Differentiation Lead to a Structural Switch in the Supply Rhythm - In March 2026, domestic methanol device operation was characterized by concentrated spring maintenance, significant regional differentiation, and stable - to - decreasing production. The overall device start - up rate and production decreased [61]. - In Q2, domestic methanol production is expected to show a trend of a slight increase in April and rapid growth from May to June. The annual production is expected to reach 93 - 95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% - 2% [64]. 3.6 Overseas Gas Restrictions and Geopolitics Resonate, Causing a Deep Contraction in Methanol Supply - In Q1 2026, overseas methanol device operation was dominated by the Middle East, with a weak global performance. The supply tightened due to winter gas restrictions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal maintenance [72]. - In Q1, domestic methanol imports shrank significantly. Import contraction supported the methanol price. In Q2, overseas device operation remains uncertain, and the supply is unlikely to become quickly loose [76]. 3.7 Shrinking Profitability of Coal - to - Methanol in China in March 2026 - In February 2026, the profit of domestic methanol devices was generally weak due to high costs and weak demand. In March, the profit is expected to be marginally repaired and structurally improved [91]. 3.8 The Peak Season of Domestic Methanol Downstream Demand in Q2 - In March 2026, the domestic methanol downstream market entered the spring resumption peak season, with traditional demand fully recovering and olefin demand remaining stable. In Q2, the downstream demand will continue to recover, with traditional and olefin demand driving together [104]. 3.9 Summary - In Q2 2026, the domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of four - fold game. The supply will be tight with domestic production increasing and imports remaining low. The demand will enter the peak - season repair stage, and the inventory will gradually decline [124]. - The methanol supply - demand will be in a tight balance, but the price will be over - valued and repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and decline in bands [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices may show a weakening oscillation due to the Middle - East war situation suppressing market risk appetite. However, the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices [1]. Nickel - The Indonesian export tax news has brought short - term sentiment boost, but the macro - economic outlook is uncertain. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory digestion is insufficient. The nickel price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 134,000 - 142,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong recently. The news and the tight raw material supply provide support. The steel mill production is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract referring to 14,200 - 14,800 [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance has boosted market sentiment. The fundamental reality has weakened marginally in the short - term but still has resilience. The price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 160,000 - 172,000 [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The short - term main contract is expected to run in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by supply - side constraints. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April, and the core operating range of Shanghai aluminum this week is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It may show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the second quarter, and the short - term price is expected to run in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Copper - The copper price is in an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the inventory pressure has weakened. But the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 [13]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The contradiction lies between the mine and smelting ends. The smelting cost supports the zinc price. The downstream may replenish inventory in the peak season, and the export space may be opened. The zinc price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound on the right - hand side can be arranged [15]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in the second quarter, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [16]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.17%, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 10%. The import loss decreased by 19.10% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 and 2605 - 2606 decreased, while those of 2606 - 2607 and 2607 - 2608 increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and refined tin imports increased by 96.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse inventory decreased, while LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.25%, and the import loss of futures decreased by 23.75% [2]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.69%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 11.34% [2]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.03%, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 remained unchanged, 2605 - 2606 increased by 10, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 80 [2]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory and social inventory increased, while bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 10, 2605 - 2606 increased by 20, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 10 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production increased by 44.07%, and stainless steel net exports increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and cold - rolled social inventory increased slightly [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.96% and 0.98% respectively. The basis decreased by 1391.43% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 1860, 2605 - 2606 decreased by 380, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 380 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57% [7]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.28%, and the import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased by 286.2 [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of AL 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15, AL 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and AL 2606 - 2607 increased by 15 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 8.91% [9]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.75%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.41%, and the spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 75 [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 41.31%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 30.99% [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 12.24% [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.01%, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 316.57% [13]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 50, 2605 - 2606 increased by 40, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 20 [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, and imports decreased by 24.95% [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory, bonded area inventory, and SHFE inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.62%, and the import loss decreased by 80.83 [15]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 20, 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 5 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, and imports decreased by 81.26% [15]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.24%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.24% [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis increased [16]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of the main contract decreased by 1.26%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 30% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the export volume decreased by 27.44% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 4.90%, and social inventory increased by 1.27% [16]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 3.33% [17]. - **Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spread**: The main contract increased by 0.39%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 242.86% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, and the export volume increased by 20.51% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.49%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.42% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, corn and hog futures broke through support and declined, while egg futures fluctuated downward. The previous trading strategies for these three commodities have been verified by the market [6][8]. - For corn, in the medium - short term, rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may cause short - term price corrections, but the downward space is limited before the import policy is relaxed. In the long term, the pricing logic is based on substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy guidance [13]. - For hogs, in the short term, the supply - demand imbalance will keep prices low. In the medium term, supply pressure will ease starting from April. In the long term, the decline in sow inventory is less than expected, and the upside potential of far - month contracts is limited [41]. - For eggs, in the medium - short term, egg prices are expected to fluctuate around the breeding cost in Q2. In the long term, the continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn 3.1.1 Market Performance - Corn futures fluctuated upward, with the 2605 contract rising 5.06% in the quarter and closing at 2369 yuan/ton as of March 27 [8]. 3.1.2 Macro Logic - Internationally, geopolitical conflicts drive up macro sentiment. Domestically, macro drivers are mainly reflected in industrial policies [10][87]. 3.1.3 Industry Logic - It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle. Key factors to watch include reserve purchases, auctions of directional rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [11][88]. 3.1.4 Supply - Demand Logic - In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand pattern is approaching balance. Globally, supply pressure has decreased year - on - year, but there is significant supply pressure in the new season for US corn. In China, imports have little impact on domestic supply in the short term due to import restrictions. In the long term, domestic corn production can cover consumption. In Q2, supply pressure mainly comes from policy - based grain releases and wheat substitution. On the demand side, livestock and poultry inventories are still high, but the breeding industry may enter a capacity - reduction phase in 2026. The narrowing price gap between wheat and corn has increased the substitution of wheat [12][89]. 3.1.5 Variety View - In the medium - short term, rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may lead to short - term price corrections, but the downward space is limited before the import policy is relaxed. In the long term, the pricing logic is based on substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy guidance [13][90]. 3.1.6 Trading Strategy - Futures: Adopt a wide - range trading strategy in the medium term, with short - term corrections. The 2605 contract has a resistance level at 2400, with the first support at 2350 - 2370 and the second at 2310 - 2330. Consider buying on dips after the negative impact of policy - based grain auctions is realized [14][91]. - Options: It is expected that the corn supply - demand pattern will remain balanced in 2026, with prices fluctuating in the range of 2200 - 2450 in the long term. As the upward price expectation has been mostly realized, volatility may narrow. It is recommended to sell options based on support and resistance levels [14][91]. - Arbitrage: The normal range of the corn basis is between - 100 and + 100, with some cases between - 200 and + 200. When the basis is outside the [-100, +100] range, conduct a feasibility analysis of cash - and - carry arbitrage. Currently, the basis is normal, and consider a cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the basis weakens to below - 200 yuan/ton [14][91]. 3.2 Hogs 3.2.1 Market Performance - Hog futures declined significantly, with the 2605 contract falling 18.08% in the quarter and closing at 9965 yuan/ton as of March 27 [8]. 3.2.2 Macro Logic - Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy guidance [45][100]. 3.2.3 Industry Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the breeding market may change [45][100]. 3.2.4 Supply - Demand Logic - Supply: As of December 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level, with a smaller - than - expected decline. From January to September 2025, the monthly number of newborn piglets increased, resulting in high hog supply before March 2026. However, the number of newborn piglets decreased for three consecutive months from October to December 2025, indicating a potential easing of supply pressure starting from April 2026. In January 2026, the number of newborn piglets increased by 1% month - on - month. Currently, the average slaughter weight is at a high level, and the impact of second - fattening on supply needs to be monitored. In terms of imports and frozen inventories, imports have little impact on the market, and the frozen inventory is at a relatively low level [40][49][51]. - Demand: Pork consumption is relatively rigid. In Q2, focus on the enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen inventory replenishment. After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption may recover slightly in Q2, but the driving force for price increases is limited [54]. 3.2.5 Variety View - Short - term: The supply - demand imbalance will keep prices low, and pay attention to the sentiment of second - fattening and frozen inventory replenishment. - Medium - term: Supply pressure will ease starting from April - June, with a focus on the impact of diseases. - Long - term: Supply pressure will persist until August, but the upside potential of far - month contracts is limited due to the smaller - than - expected decline in sow inventory [41][96]. 3.2.6 Trading Strategy - Futures: Adopt a bottom - range trading strategy. The 2605 contract will continue to seek support. The 2607 and 2609 contracts in Q3 may have a slight recovery after the supply pressure is released. For contracts in Q4 and later, wait for sow data to determine the trading direction. If the sow data remains high from January to February, consider short - selling [42][97]. - Options: As hog prices are at a low level, the volatility of the futures market has decreased. It is recommended to sell options to short - sell volatility, focusing on selling options near support and resistance levels [43][98]. - Arbitrage: Given the seasonal fluctuations in hog prices and the rapid changes in supply - driven logic, consider a reverse arbitrage opportunity by selling near - month contracts and buying the 2701 contract [43][98]. 3.3 Eggs 3.3.1 Market Performance - Egg futures fluctuated within a range, with the 2605 contract falling 0.17% in the quarter and closing at 3502 yuan/500 kg as of March 27 [8]. 3.3.2 Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes. In the second half of the year, focus on the impact of meat and vegetable prices [62][103]. 3.3.3 Industry Logic - The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. Enterprises have a strong expansion意愿, and large - scale breeding is promoting the transformation from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding. Small - scale farmers are expected to gradually exit the market, and brand building will become an important development direction [63][104]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Logic - Supply: At the end of 2025, egg prices rose rapidly, and the culling of laying hens slowed down, resulting in a post - poned supply pressure. In February 2026, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.35 billion, and the estimated inventory in March was 1.342 billion. The concentrated culling of hens from October to November 2025 will lead to a decrease in the supply of newly - laid eggs in April 2026, providing some support to the market. However, the low culling rate during the Spring Festival has increased the proportion of large - sized eggs, limiting the upside potential of egg prices. If the culling rate is lower than expected in the first half of the year, the supply pressure will continue to accumulate [64][105]. - Demand: In Q2, egg consumption may recover, and pay attention to the inventory level. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream stocking demand was strong, and the social inventory was low. Egg consumption follows a seasonal pattern, and focus on the stocking intensity before holidays and changes in social inventory [82]. 3.3.5 Variety View - Medium - short term: Egg prices are expected to fluctuate around the breeding cost in Q2, and pay attention to the culling and molting rhythm of laying hens. - Long term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may extend the price bottom cycle and limit the price increase driven by culling. Wait patiently for the over - culling to drive capacity reduction [65][106]. 3.3.6 Trading Strategy - Futures: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the medium - short term, and consider short - selling in the long term when supply contradictions accumulate. For the 2605 contract, the support level is 3300, and the resistance level is 3600; for the 2606 contract, the support is 3100, and the resistance is 3350; for the 2607 contract, the support is 3300, and the resistance is 3500; for the 2608 contract, the support is 3900, and the resistance is 4200; for the 2609 contract, the support is 3600 - 3700, and the resistance is 3900. Pay attention to the inventory level and the culling rhythm of laying hens. If the inventory of laying hens remains above 1.3 billion in the first half of the year, the upside potential of egg prices in the second half of the year is limited. It is recommended that breeding enterprises lock in profits through far - month contracts [66][107]. - Options: For near - month contracts, the bearish expectation has been mostly realized, and the volatility has narrowed. It is recommended to sell put options near the support level. For far - month contracts after Q2, pay attention to the capacity - reduction rhythm of laying hens. If there is a large - scale capacity reduction, consider buying out - of - the - money call options; otherwise, consider selling call options when the price rises [66][107]. - Arbitrage: In 2026, the egg market may enter a capacity - reduction phase, and market sentiment has a significant impact on price fluctuations. If over - culling occurs, consider a reverse arbitrage opportunity; if culling is lower than expected due to large - scale breeding, consider a positive arbitrage opportunity. Focus on the strength relationship between contracts around peak consumption seasons, such as the 8 - 9 and 12 - 02 contracts [67][108].