1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of weak oil and strong gas remains, and the PG futures market is consolidating. The downstream prices of propylene and PP are continuously falling, which suppresses the profit of PDH plants and affects the short - term shutdown of some enterprises. The alkane deep - processing sector maintains a relative balance between "start - up and profit". Although the domestic crude oil processing volume has declined, the start - up rate has increased. The olefin deep - processing in Northeast Asia is supported by the strong demand for oil blending, and the natural gas price also brings potential positive factors to the NGLs market. Therefore, the PG price on the futures market is expected to remain strong, and the oil - gas cracking spread will fluctuate at a high level [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures continued to fluctuate in the range of 4230 - 4420 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices rose during the week, and international LPG trading was relatively active with rising transaction prices, boosting market confidence. In the domestic spot market, the supply of domestic gas decreased. Although the chemical demand for propane declined, the falling temperature was beneficial to the combustion demand, and the expectation of peak - season demand still existed, so the futures market was firm. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 72 yuan/ton, - 47 yuan/ton in South China, and - 37 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable product was set in East China [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 505,900 tons (- 0.90%), including 203,800 tons of civil gas (+ 0.25%) and 195,600 tons of industrial gas (- 3.46%), and 173,900 tons of post - ether C4. The arrival volume of LPG was 620,000 tons (+ 12.30%). Two refineries in the Northwest and one in East China shut down, while enterprises in Shandong, South China, and East China started production, but the incremental volume was less than the loss. Next week, an ethylene plant in South China is planned to shut down, and the external supply of refineries will increase. Other production devices may change little, and the domestic commercial volume is expected to recover [4]. 3.3 Demand - The heating demand in winter is gradually approaching, and the combustion demand for LPG is gradually improving with a slow recovery in overall demand. Although the weak PN spread has increased the relative economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material, the substitution effect is limited due to the weak demand for downstream olefins. The supply of the Chinese propylene market is severely excessive, and the high - load operation of PDH plants has suppressed the procurement demand for raw material propane. Driven by the structural tightness of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE, which directly translates into a stable demand for its upstream raw material, isobutane, providing key support for the LPG market and triggering cross - regional trade flows [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 181,800 tons (+ 34%). Except for the slight relief of inventory in the western region due to the decline in supply, most markets were restricted by weak demand, and the shipment slowed down to varying degrees, resulting in a certain increase in inventory. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased this period, and some arriving resources last week were unloaded this week. With sufficient imported resources and more arriving ships, the ports showed a trend of inventory accumulation [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 44.00 yuan/ton in East China, - 10.80 yuan/ton in South China, and - 1.20 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4,561 lots, with no change. The lowest deliverable location was East China [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates were 69.64% for PDH, 58.91% for MTBE, and 42.33% for alkylation. The profits were - 378 yuan/ton for PDH - made propylene, - 201 yuan/ton for MTBE isomerization, and - 531 yuan/ton for alkylation in Shandong [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.32 (+ 1.81%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary contracts was 60 yuan/ton (- 36.17%). In the fourth quarter, the LPG price was firm, while the crude oil price showed a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread fluctuated at a high level [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - The US Department of Labor announced that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21. The G20 Summit opened in Johannesburg, South Africa on November 22. The Ukrainian and US delegations will hold consultations in Switzerland on the possible parameters of a peace agreement with Russia. Sino - Japanese relations have deteriorated due to the remarks of the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, and China has taken corresponding counter - measures [4]. 3.9 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Bullish. Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, temporarily wait and do not chase the long position; for arbitrage, pay attention to the positive spread between months on dips. Risk concerns include Sino - US tariffs, US sanctions on Russia, freight rate changes, and device changes [4].