液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-11 原油端支撑稳固，但基本面驱动仍偏弱 市场分析 1、\t7月10日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4610；东北市场，4160-4330；华北市场，4425-4650；华东市场，4380-4650； 沿江市场，4570-4690；西北市场，4050-4350；华南市场，4570-4700。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷577美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷552美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4542元/吨，涨45元/吨，丁烷4346元/吨，涨22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷577美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，丁烷552美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4542元/吨，涨21元/吨，丁烷4346元/吨，涨22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 虽然本周原油价格走势偏强，但对LPG市场提振有限，内外盘LPG价格走势相对平淡，市场驱动不足。现货方面， 昨日山东及沿江地区有所下跌，其余区域维稳，由于下游需求疲软，市场氛围一般。具体来看，供应方面，海外 供应维持充裕； ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-10 市场氛围一般，缺乏利好 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 市场分析 1、\t7月9日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4160-4330；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4380-4650； 沿江市场，4570-4740；西北市场，4050-4350；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷549美元/吨，涨12美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4497元/吨，涨40元/吨，丁烷4324元/吨，涨95元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷574美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，丁烷549美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4521元/吨，涨24元/吨，丁烷4324元/吨，涨56元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 虽然本周原油价格走势偏强，但对LPG市场提振有限，外盘仅小幅上涨，PG盘面则维持弱势震荡，市场驱动不足。 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-09 供应充足，盘面弱势震荡 市场分析 1、\t7月8日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4120-4330；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4380-4580； 沿江市场，4570-4740；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷566美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4457元/吨，涨56元/吨，丁烷4229元/吨，涨80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨14美元/吨，丁烷542美元/吨，涨15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4497元/吨，涨112元/吨，丁烷4268元/吨，涨119元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日原油价格走强，但对LPG市场提振有限，盘面维持弱势震荡，市场驱动不足。现货方面，沿江地区有所下跌， 其余区域主流维稳，氛围温和，上游库压尚可，下游按需采购。供应方面，OPEC计划增产，海外供应维持充裕； 国内供应尚可，整 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-08 供需延续宽松，市场驱动不足 市场分析 1、\t7月7日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4120-4310；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4430-4650； 沿江市场，4620-4740；西北市场，4200-4400；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷559美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷527美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4401元/吨，跌9元/吨，丁烷4149元/吨，跌9元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t（2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷557美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷527美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4385元/吨，跌9元/吨，丁烷4149元/吨，跌9元/吨。数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面回到窄幅震荡状态，市场驱动不足。现货方面，山东、华北区 域有所下跌，其余区域维稳，下游刚需采购，氛围温和。供应方面，OPEC计划增产，海外供应维持充裕；国内供 尚可，整体供应充足。需求方面，民 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 | | 本周，沙特阿美7月CP出台，超预期下跌，丙烷575美元/吨（-25），丁烷545美元/吨（-25），进口成本大幅下 | | --- | --- | | | 调。国产方面，周商品量变化较小，液化气总商品量53.8万吨，小幅缩减0.06%；其中，民用气商品量22.96万吨 | | 供应 | （-0.39%），醚后商品量16.33万吨（-0.55%）。当前，国内液化气商品量处于历史中位水平。进口方面，本周国 | | | 际船到港量49.9万吨（-1 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-04 部分装置检修，PDH开工率再度回落 市场分析 1、\t7月3日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4700；东北市场，4120—4310；华北市场，4555-4650；华东市场，4430—4650； 沿江市场，4620—4740 ；西北市场，4250—4350；华南市场，4580—4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷565美元/吨，跌20美元/吨，丁烷530美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4488元/吨，跌119元/吨，丁烷4173元/吨，跌80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷570美元/吨，跌20美元/吨，丁烷530美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4449元/吨，跌197元/吨，丁烷4173元/吨，跌80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面回到窄幅震荡状态，市场驱动不足。昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期与国 内LPG局部现货价格再度下跌。就LPG基本面而言，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，在中东断供风险消退后，海外货源供 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-03 现货价格大体持稳，盘面窄幅波动 市场分析 1、\t7月2日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4700；东北市场，4120—4310；华北市场，4555-4650；华东市场，4480-4650； 沿江市场，4620-4820；西北市场，4250—4350；华南市场，4650-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷585美元/吨，稳定，丁烷540美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4607元/吨，稳定，丁烷4253元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷590美元/吨，稳定，丁烷540美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4646元/吨，稳定，丁烷4253元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面回到窄幅震荡状态，市场驱动不足。昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期与国 内液化气现货价格也大体持稳，波动幅度较小。就LPG基本面而言，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，在中东断供风险消 退后，海外货源供应较为充裕，尤其美国LPG出口仍处于高位，出口终端扩建项目投产后供应增 ...

Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]

市场分析 1、\t7月1日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4700；东北市场，4160-4310；华北市场，4555-4650；华东市场，4480-4650； 沿江市场，4620-4820；西北市场，4250-4400；华南市场，4650-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷585美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4607元/吨，涨36元/吨，丁烷4253元/吨，涨37元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷590美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4646元/吨，涨36元/吨，丁烷4253元/吨，涨37元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面重回震荡偏弱状态，市场驱动不足。昨日沙特7月CP价格下调， 对国内市场情绪存在一定利空。就当前LPG基本面而言，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，在中东断供风险消退后，海外 货源供应较为充裕，尤其美国LPG出口仍处于高位，出口终端扩建项目投产后供应增长空间进一步打开 ...