2025 年 8 月 28 日 LPG：原油成本反弹 丙烯：供需收紧，现货价格拉涨 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,871 | -0.10% | 3,880 | 0.23% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,408 | -0.61% | 4,418 | 0.23% | | | PL2601 | 6,444 | -0.36% | 6,441 | -0.05% | | | PL2602 | 6,478 | -0.57% | 6,449 | -0.45% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 7,584 | -258 | 15,526 | -5000 | | | PG2510 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-27 盘面震荡偏强，局部现货上涨 市场分析 1、\t8月26日地区价格：山东市场，4500-4630；东北市场，3850-4130；华北市场，4100-4600；华东市场，4350-4480； 沿江市场，4610-4820；西北市场，4450-4500；华南市场，4550-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷586美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷561美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4593元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4397元/吨，涨41元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷578美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4530元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4334元/吨，涨57元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 在经历了持续的弱势行情后，LPG市场近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善、油价反弹 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 基础化工 证券研究报告 7 月化学原料和化学制品制造业工业增加值同比增长 7.2%，硝酸、PTA 价格上涨 上周指 25 年 8 月 11-17 日（下同），本周指 25 年 8 月 18-24 日（下同）。 本周重点新闻跟踪 2025 年 8 月 15 日，国家统计局发布数据显示，7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比 实际增长 5.7%。 其中，石油和天然气开采业同比增长 4.1%，化学原料和化学制品 制造业同比增长 7.2%。1-7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.3%。其中，石油 和天然气开采业同比增长 3.7%，化学原料和化学制品制造业同比增长 8.0%。 本周重点产品价格跟踪点评 本周 WTI 油价上涨 1.4%，为 63.66 美元/桶。 重点关注子行业：本周尿素/DMF/乙二醇/烧碱/醋酸价格分别上涨 3%/2.5%/1.2%/0.8%/0.6%；有机硅/TDI/电石法 PVC/乙烯法 PVC/轻质纯碱/聚合 MDI/ 固体蛋氨酸价格分别下跌 4.3%/3.5%/2.2%/1%/0.8%/0.6%/0.2%；液体蛋氨酸/氨纶/粘胶 长丝/VA/粘胶短纤/重质纯碱/V ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-26 市场氛围尚可，现货价格普涨 市场分析 1、\t8月25日地区价格：山东市场，4500-4630；东北市场，3850-4130；华北市场，4100-4550；华东市场，4350-4480； 沿江市场，4610-4790；西北市场，4450-4500；华南市场，4528-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷581美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4552元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4356元/吨，跌25元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷546美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4489元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4277元/吨，跌41元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 经历了较长时间的弱势行情，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），LPG市场情绪有所改 善，叠加内盘主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。现货方面，山东、华南、华东等地价格普遍上涨，市 场氛围尚可，下游刚需 ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,878 | -0.56% | 3,889 | 0.28% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,387 | -0.14% | 4,428 | 0.93% | | | PL2601 | 6,470 | -0.03% | 6,510 | 0.62% | | | PL2602 | 6,522 | 0.00% | 6,543 | 0.32% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 12,533 | -6081 | 29,779 | -5452 | | | PG2510 | 66,214 | ...

市场分析 1、\t8月21日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4520；东北市场，3950-4130；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4330-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4760；西北市场，4250-4350；华南市场，4478-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷579美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4544元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4363元/吨，跌22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷548美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4481元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4301元/吨，跌21元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面筑底反弹，但驱动仍有限 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 在PG盘面处于低位弱势运行的背景下，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），市场情绪有 所改善，叠加主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the futures market is at a relatively low level. However, there are some marginal positive factors recently, such as the increase in international freight rates and the improvement in chemical demand. The significant rebound of the overseas market price may drive a marginal improvement in sentiment [1]. - The spot prices in the Yangtze River and South China regions increased slightly, while those in other regions remained stable. Some downstream buyers replenished their stocks at low prices, resulting in improved trading and a favorable market atmosphere [1]. - The overseas supply is high, and the domestic commercial volume decreased slightly, with the overall supply remaining abundant. The demand for combustion is weak in the summer heat, and downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases. Meanwhile, the chemical demand has improved marginally, with the PDH operating rate reaching a high level this year, but the power for further strengthening is limited [1]. - The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market. One can pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities at low levels of PG, but the upside space is limited. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 20, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4420 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3950 - 4100 yuan/ton; North China market, 4280 - 4480 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4480 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4478 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 578 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton) and 558 dollars/ton (up 13 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4542 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton) and 4385 yuan/ton (up 104 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 570 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton) and 550 dollars/ton (up 13 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4479 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton) and 4322 yuan/ton (up 103 yuan/ton) in RMB [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile. Pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities at low levels of PG, but the space is limited [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the LPG and propylene markets, stating that the markets are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes. It presents detailed data on futures prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and key industrial chain data, as well as market news and device maintenance plans [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, 2025, PG2509 had a closing price of 3,890 with a daily increase of 0.99% and a night - session closing price of 3,891 with a night - session increase of 0.03%. PG2510 closed at 4,354 with a 1.23% increase, PL2601 at 6,446 with a 0.66% increase, and PL2602 at 6,493 with a 0.51% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2509's trading volume was 37,785, a decrease of 2,184 from the previous day, and its open interest was 42,525, a decrease of 13,814. PG2510's trading volume was 98,441, an increase of 52,994, and its open interest was 104,754, an increase of 3,980 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG09 contract was 610, compared to 598 the previous day. The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 56, compared to 6 the previous day [1]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 76.3%, up from 73.8% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 63.4%, down from 66.6% last week, and the alkylation operating rate was 49.0%, down from 50.0% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]. 3.3 Market News - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On August 20, 2025, the September CP paper goods prices were 519 US dollars per ton for propane, up 4 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day, and 496 US dollars per ton for butane, up 5 US dollars per ton. The October CP paper goods price for propane was 533 US dollars per ton, up 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times and end times determined and some end times still pending [8]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [10].

1、\t8月19日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4500；东北市场，3900-4110；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4280-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4700；西北市场，4200-4300；华南市场，4428-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷568美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4462元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4281元/吨，跌30元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷560美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4399元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4219元/吨，跌29元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-20 产销温和，下游刚需为主 市场分析 LPG整体供需格局维持宽松，市场弱势运行，近期出现一些边际利好但尚不足以逆转氛围，昨日外盘价格再度出 现下跌。现货方面，昨日山东、西北及华南区域价格上涨，其余区域维稳，整体市场产销温和，下游刚需为主。 供应方面，海外供应整体维持充裕 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the market is operating weakly. However, the recent marginal improvement in chemical - end demand and the increase in freight rates are providing some downside support. The spot price of domestic mainstream LPG is stable, with downstream purchasing on demand and sellers having no inventory concerns. Overseas supply is generally abundant, and the domestic commercial volume has slightly decreased but remains abundant. The combustion - end demand is weak due to high summer temperatures, while the chemical - end demand has marginally improved, with the PDH operating rate rising to around 78%, at a high level this year but with limited further upward momentum. In terms of trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to expect oscillations and focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels, while there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [1][2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Analysis - On August 18, the domestic regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4370 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3900 - 4110 yuan/ton; North China market 4280 - 4620 yuan/ton; East China market 4350 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4530 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market 4378 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 572 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 549 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4491 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for propane and 4311 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, propane was at 564 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 541 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4428 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) for propane and 4248 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillations, focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2].