第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油市场风险增加：短期原油市场定价核心依然在中东地缘风险溢价上，美伊问题的发展方向依然 决定着盘面的动向，周末美伊冲突加剧，美军从空中、海上同步出击，精准打击伊朗德黑兰总统府、最高领 袖官邸、核设施、导弹基地、伊斯兰革命卫队总部等约30个关键目标;伊朗随即启动毁灭性报复，以导弹与无 人机反击以色列本土及巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋、科威特等国境内的美军中东基地，中东多国紧急关闭领空、 进入最高警戒状态，地区冲突从长期对峙直接升级为全面军事对抗，全球避险情绪急剧升温。暗盘以8%的涨 幅快速拉涨。 2）外盘丙烷本周延续强制：中东地区发运量整体中性，且受到沙特突发的装置故障影响，截至本周五，FEI 升贴水20，CP升贴水0。目前霍尔木兹海峡实质处于关闭状态，货运停滞，短期供应担忧依然助推价格上 行。 3）内盘基本面边际转弱：供应端本期在商品量及到港增加下回升，厂库及港库均增加。需求端，PDH开工受 节中利华益、辽宁金发短停影响小幅下滑，目前已重启，目前在检修装置包括金能、巨正源等还将持续一段 时间。后续若中东供应受阻，到货 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-27 沙特供应收紧，进口成本保持坚挺 市场分析 1、2月26日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4500；东北市场，3670-4100；华北市场，4180-4450；华东市场，4200-4400； 沿江市场，4560-4780；西北市场，4050-4250；华南市场，4600-4850。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年3月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷670美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5106元/吨，涨62元/吨，丁烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年3月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷650美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨，丁烷4954元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 25日晚间沙特juaymah NGL设施突发故障，导致Ras Tanura码头3月部分装船计划被取消，外盘纸货维持强势行情， 国际市场偏紧、进口成本较高的局面延续，国内化工装置利润或将受到进一步压制。除了意外的不可抗力外 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-26 沙特设施出现故障，关注美伊谈判进展 市场分析 1、 2月25日地区价格：山东市场，4470-4530；东北市场，3670-4200；华北市场，4130-4470；华东市场，4150-4400； 沿江市场，4530-4780；西北市场，4050-4250；华南市场，4650-4850。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年3月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷660美元/吨，稳定，丁烷650美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷5044元/吨，稳定，丁烷4967元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年3月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷650美元/吨，稳定，丁烷640美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4967元/吨，稳定，丁烷4891元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期市场主要影响因素来自于地缘层面，春节假期期间伊朗局势升温，外盘原油与LPG价格上涨，带动节后盘面 价格走高。本周美国与伊朗双方将举行新一轮谈判，需要重点关注。如果谈判进展不顺，美伊冲突升级，美国对 伊朗采取军事行动，造成伊朗甚至波斯湾供应中断，则将导致国内货源显著收紧，构成巨大的上 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-25 地缘风险再度发酵，节后盘面走强 市场分析 1、2月24日地区价格：山东市场，4475-4530；东北市场，3670-4200；华北市场，4080-4470；华东市场，4150-4400； 沿江市场，4530-4780；西北市场，4055-4250；华南市场，4600-4850。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年3月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷660美元/吨，涨25美元/吨，丁烷650美元/吨，涨25美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5044元/吨，涨193元/吨，丁烷4967元/吨，涨192元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年3月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷650美元/吨，涨25美元/吨，丁烷640美元/吨，涨25美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4967元/吨，涨192元/吨，丁烷4891元/吨，涨192元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 春节假期期间，中东地缘局势升温，外盘原油与LPG价格上涨，昨日节后第一天能化板块整体走强，PG盘面如期 跟涨。目前市场主要矛盾在地缘层面，如果美伊冲突进一步升级，美国对伊朗采取军事行动，伊朗甚至波斯湾供 应中断， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. It is recommended to maintain a light position before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The operating rate of PDH has marginally increased due to the restart of some devices, but there is still a gap compared to the previous level. The overseas supply has tightened marginally, and the external market has phased support, but there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost suppresses the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk. During the Spring Festival, the main uncertainty in the market comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the United States escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On February 12, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4380 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3740 - 4200 yuan/ton; North China market, 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 638 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4878 yuan/ton for propane and 4802 yuan/ton for butane, both down 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 628 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4802 yuan/ton for propane and 4726 yuan/ton for butane, down 37 yuan/ton and 36 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The CP propane - butane swap in the external market had a correction yesterday, while the domestic LPG spot price remained stable overall with partial increases. The East China spot market was mainly stable, with sellers having a low willingness to adjust prices before the festival, and the trading atmosphere was mediocre. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures. Recently, the overseas supply has tightened marginally, especially in the United States where production and inventory have significantly declined due to the cold wave, providing phased support to the external market. However, there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost has suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. This week, the restart of some devices has driven the operating rate up to 65%, but it is still far from the previous level of 75%. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk, especially for the main PG2603 contract, where the pressure of concentrated warrant cancellation will be more obvious [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran and maintain a light position before the festival. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment rating is neutral [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The pre - holiday atmosphere is dull, and domestic LPG spot prices are generally stable with partial slight declines [1] - The upstream in the East China market has good sales volume, no inventory pressure, and industry players are actively supporting the market. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures [1] - Recently, overseas LPG supply has tightened marginally, especially due to the significant decline in US production and inventory affected by the cold wave, providing phased support to the outer - market. But there are still resistance factors in the market [1] - High raw material costs suppress the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, causing negative demand feedback. Although some devices restarted this week, the profit situation has not improved significantly [1] - The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk [1] - The game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market, and the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts is more obvious for the main PG2603 contract [1] - The potential uncertainty in the market before the Spring Festival comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the US escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic LPG supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave fades [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Regional Prices - On February 11, the regional prices of LPG in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4380 - 4480 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] Imported Prices in March 2026 - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane in East China and South China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 643 US dollars/ton and 633 US dollars/ton respectively, and the CIF prices of butane also increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 633 US dollars/ton and 623 US dollars/ton respectively. The corresponding RMB - converted prices of propane and butane increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Strategy Summary - Unilateral strategy: Be neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, and operate with a light position before the Spring Festival [2] - No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - On February 10, the regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4530 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4150 - 4480 yuan/ton, East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 642 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 632 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4909 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4833 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB; in South China, they were 632 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 622 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4833 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4756 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - The domestic liquefied gas spot prices showed a mixed trend. In East China, the civilian end of liquefied gas remained stable while the ether - after product prices decreased. The upstream focused on sales volume, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was acceptable. Overseas supply tightened marginally, but the PG futures market was relatively weak. High raw material costs suppressed downstream profits, and the price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civilian gas also put pressure on the PG market. There were also disturbances from warehouse receipts and delivery games [1] - Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies and potential upward risks for the market. If the situation eases, the LPG market is still expected to be oversupplied [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Analysis - Regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China on February 10 [1] - CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East and South China in the first half of March 2026 and their RMB equivalent [1] - The mixed trend of domestic liquefied gas spot prices, the situation of the civilian end and ether - after product in East China, upstream and downstream conditions, overseas supply, and the influence factors on the PG market [1] - The need to focus on the Iranian situation and its potential impact on the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, focus on the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Other strategies (inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [2] Figures - Figures showing the spot prices of civilian liquefied gas and ether - after carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - to - month differences, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market driving force is limited, and geopolitical risks still exist. Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally and the Saudi CP has increased in February, the PG futures market is relatively weak, and domestic spot prices generally declined yesterday. High raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, leading to negative demand feedback. The price inversion between etherified C4 and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG futures market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disturbed the market, especially for the PG2603 contract, where the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts will be more obvious. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market. However, if the situation eases or remains controllable, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave subsides, and there is still resistance above the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4350 - 4510; Northeast market, 3740 - 4150; North China market, 4230 - 4470; East China market, 4150 - 4570; Yangtze River market, 4640 - 4930; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400; South China market, 4780 - 4800 [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 637 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 US dollars/ton and 11 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4875 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton, and butane was 4807 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, up 8 US dollars/ton and 9 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4799 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton, and butane was 4730 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the Asian LPG market will remain relatively loose. The Far - East FEI price is expected to oscillate at a low level within a certain range, and the domestic PG price is also expected to follow the range - bound oscillation. The market needs to improve downstream chemical profits to stimulate additional demand and achieve re - balance of the trade flow. Otherwise, the US propane inventory may break through the historical high at the end of 2026 [4][5][114] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Market Review - In 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas market was greatly affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical events, with significantly amplified volatility and reduced weight of fundamental pricing. In different quarters, various events such as cold snaps, tariff wars, and regional conflicts had different impacts on the market price and trade flow [16][17][22] Trade Pattern Remains Unchanged, and Export Volume is Expected to Increase Steadily - **US**: In 2025, the US LPG production increased, mainly from associated gas and NGL. The export growth rate slowed down due to tariff disturbances and closed arbitrage windows. In 2026, with the expansion of terminal capacity, the export volume is expected to increase by about 7.3% [30][33][40] - **Middle East**: In 2025, the LPG export volume in the Middle East increased, mainly driven by Iran and Iraq. In 2026, the export volume is expected to increase by 3.5% due to the commissioning of gas fields and the high - base effect of crude oil production [50][51][55] Asian Chemical Demand Growth Slows Down - **Southeast Asia**: In 2025, the combustion demand in Southeast Asia, especially in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, increased. In 2026, India's import growth is expected to slow down, while Indonesia and the Philippines' combustion demand will maintain a stable growth rate [65][66][75] - **PDH**: In 2025, China's PDH capacity increased, but the growth rate slowed down. In 2026, the new effective capacity is relatively limited, and the industry's operating rate is expected to increase slightly, corresponding to a demand increment of about 115 tons [76][80][81] - **Cracking Devices**: In 2025, China's new cracking capacity squeezed out the old - fashioned devices in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In 2026, the cracking devices in these regions are not expected to have further incremental demand for LPG. In China, the cracking demand for LPG is expected to decrease by about 50 tons due to tariff and economic factors [87][88][98] Supply - Demand Balance Summary - **China**: In 2026, China's LPG market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with a slightly looser fundamental situation. The domestic production is expected to increase by 1.5% to 5420 tons, and the import volume is expected to increase by about 125 tons [100][108] - **Global Trade Flow**: There is a supply - demand mismatch in the global LPG trade flow. About 365 tons of supply needs to find new outlets. It is necessary to improve the economy of chemical demand to stimulate additional demand and achieve re - balance [110] Investment Recommendations - The Far - East FEI price is expected to oscillate at a low level within a certain range, and the domestic PG price is expected to oscillate within the range of 3700 - 4700 yuan/ton. Strategies such as C3/C4 price ratio, MB propane reverse - arbitrage, and expanding the spread between the US Gulf and the Far - East can be considered [5][114][115]

来源：宁波公安 春节将近 2024年12月，警方查获一起吸食丁烷案，违法行为人听信 "吸食丁烷能提神" 的说法，网购丁烷自行吸 食，被依法处以行政处罚。 2025年2月，警方抓获4名涉嫌吸食丁烷人员，涉案人员对违法行为供认不讳，均被依法行政拘留。 孩子们拿着打火机点燃烟花 嬉笑打闹的场景随处可见 可很少有人留意 这寻常打火机里的丁烷气体 正悄悄化身 "毒品替代品" 在青少年群体中悄然蔓延 近期 全国多地警方接连破获丁烷滥用案件 严厉打击相关违法行为 2025年8月底，警方在民宿安全专项检查中，发现两名未实名登记人员精神状态异常，现场查获6个空丁 烷气罐。经查，二人多次在民宿内吸食丁烷，累计使用量超200罐，对非法使用危险物质的违法事实供 认不讳。 什么是丁 烷？ 丁烷是一种无色、容易被液化的气体，易燃易爆，有麻醉作用，是常见的打火机气体成分之一，属于危 险化学品。 吸食丁烷的危害 丁烷是有毒气体 ，吸食丁烷后会产生快感和成瘾性 ，大量吸入时可能会发生急性中毒，表现为头晕、 头痛、兴奋或嗜睡、恶心呕吐等；严重者可能会突然昏厥、尿失禁、意识丧失、呼吸停止；长期接触低 浓度丁烷者，会造成慢性损伤，出现头痛头晕、睡眠 ...