2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘高位震荡，短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：近月合约持续上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international LPG market has experienced a period of weak decline, but domestic chemical demand, particularly for propane and butane, has provided support, stabilizing prices in the range of $555-565 per ton [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Chemical Demand - Strong domestic chemical demand has significantly supported the LPG market, with notable increases in the deep processing demand for propane and butane [3]. - The average operating rate of domestic PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) units rose above 70% in July and further increased to over 73% in early August, indicating a recovery in propane demand [3]. - The profitability of domestic PDH units remains favorable, encouraging higher operational rates [3]. Group 2: Butane Demand - Butane demand has also been robust, playing a crucial role in supporting the international market, with increased imports alleviating supply pressures and even causing shortages in some regions [5]. - The operating rate of domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units has rebounded to over 73% in August after hitting a low in May, supported by nearly one million tons of new capacity from companies like Kaiyi and Yuxin [5]. - In July, the loading volume of domestic butane pressure vessels reached 29,600 tons, accounting for 14.08% of the total loading volume, reflecting a significant increase of over 10 percentage points from June [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The strong chemical demand for propane and butane has not only supported the international LPG market but also alleviated domestic sales pressure, with a noticeable slowdown in the decline of residential gas prices in August [7]. - Future demand for propane remains strong, driven by PDH and ethylene units, while butane demand is expected to remain high, although the profitability of isobutane dehydrogenation may negatively impact future demand [7]. - As summer transitions to fall, there is potential for a rebound in combustion demand, which could further boost LPG demand [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts on August 15, with most contracts declining while a few experienced gains [1] Group 2 - The main declines were observed in soybean meal, which fell over 2%, and in soybean oil, Shanghai silver, and Shanghai nickel, each dropping over 1% [1] - On the other hand, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) saw an increase of over 1%, while SC crude oil, coke, and soda ash each rose nearly 1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil production increases, suppressing the cost side, leading to LPG prices running at a low level. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the international oil and gas supply is expected to be loose, suppressing the raw material cost price. Although the recent resumption of PDH has increased and the deep - processing of C4 has maintained stable operation, the terminal demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are loose. The basis is at a high level, and the valuation of the main contract is suppressed by the warrants, with the reverse spread reaching the bottom [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 3,820 - 4,000 yuan/ton. The sharp drop in August CP led to a significant decline in import costs, which was negative for the futures and spot markets. International crude oil prices fell, causing a decline in the energy - chemical sector. The main LPG contract reached a low for the year. As the decline in spot prices was less than that of futures, the basis strengthened. The weekly average basis was 518.6 yuan/ton in East China, 515.2 yuan/ton in South China, and 651.2 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable location was South China [6] 3.2 Factors Affecting LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG decreased slightly. The commercial volume of domestic LPG decreased, with the volume of domestic - use gas at 210,000 tons (3.62%), industrial gas at 202,200 tons (- 0.39%), and ether - after C4 at 74,000 tons (- 0.56%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A company in the Northwest resumed operation, a company in Shandong carried out maintenance, and a refinery in Central China increased internal supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - The combustion demand remained weak, and downstream procurement demand was low. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the poor performance of the oil product market increased the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises, weakening the demand for ether - after C4. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH increased the operating rate, but the off - season demand for intermediate - link propylene and terminal PP was average, and the fundamentals were loose, with other downstream profits in varying degrees of loss [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 175,800 tons (- 2.77%), and the port inventory was 321,620 tons (61%). This week, the inventory in various domestic regions remained generally stable with minor adjustments. The inventory in South China and Northeast China increased slightly due to import impacts and low demand, while the inventory in East China and Central China decreased through resource shipping and low - price sales. Although the number of arriving ships at the port decreased slightly this period, the unloading volume increased compared with last week, and the import resources were sufficient [4] 3.2.4 Basis and Positions - The weekly average basis was 555.4 yuan/ton in East China, 547.6 yuan/ton in South China, and 40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warrants was 10,179 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was East China [4] 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 73.84%, 53%, and 50% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 201 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 390 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 2.59%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was - 478 yuan/ton. The basis level was high, and the main futures contract was expected to reach the bottom [4] 3.2.7 Other Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and international oil and gas prices are fluctuating downward. Trump signed an executive order on August 6, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US, raising the overall tariff level to 50%. The 90 - day tariff relaxation period is approaching, and China - US tariff renegotiations are imminent [4] 3.3 Investment and Trading Strategies - The investment view is bearish. The trading strategy suggests temporarily waiting and watching for unilateral trading, paying attention to the positive spread of far - month contracts for arbitrage, and shorting PDH profits by going long on PG and shorting PL. Attention should be paid to China - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and changes in downstream demand [4] 3.4 Device Maintenance Plans - The report provides the maintenance plans of major refineries, LPG production devices, and PDH devices in China in 2025, including information such as refinery names, locations, maintenance devices, processing capacities, start and end times, etc. [12][13][14] 3.5 Market Data Charts - The report includes a large number of market data charts, covering the closing price monitoring of energy - chemical products, LPG futures prices, inter - month and cross - month spreads, domestic and international LPG - related price trends, inventory, production, consumption, and other data [3][10][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in China experienced a year-on-year decline of 11.52% as of late July 2025, with a price of 4463.6 yuan per ton [1] - The report highlights that the price of LPG has shown a slight month-on-month increase of 0.18% [1] - It is noted that the highest price in the past five years was recorded in late July 2022, reaching 5550.9 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The data referenced in the report is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics [2]

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The oil market may shift to a weaker market dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals due to the weakening geopolitical risk premium and the expected loose supply - demand outlook after the peak season. The fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG markets are all affected by the weakening of the oil market, with different market characteristics and trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC09 contract dropping 2.24% during the day. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, to be implemented in 21 days. But the risk of Russian oil supply has weakened, and the geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased. The supply - demand outlook for crude oil after the peak season remains loose, and the oil market may turn to a weaker trend [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC led the decline in the oil product market, and the weakness of fuel - related futures continued. The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market in August was abundant, and the ship - bunkering demand lacked support. The Singapore inventory remained high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continued to decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market was weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continued to shrink [2]. Asphalt - SC led the decline in the oil product market. The asphalt supply - side increase space is currently considered neutral, and the demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation. The asphalt's unilateral trend follows crude oil, and the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [3]. LPG - After the CP was lowered, the spot market was weak. The North American market was under pressure, and the import cost continued to put pressure on the domestic market. The domestic demand has bottom - support, and the LPG futures are running at a low level with the fundamental negatives having landed [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that crude oil futures have experienced a significant decline, with SC crude oil dropping over 3% [1] - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil have also seen a decline of nearly 3% [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and asphalt have decreased by nearly 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the LPG market is bearish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The August CP official price has decreased, and the LPG price is fluctuating weakly. The current market has a large number of new warehouse receipts. The reverse arbitrage logic for the PG09 delivery month may be repeated, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect. Due to the suppression of the August CP price, the current spread is in a volatile window. It is recommended that investors mainly stay on the sidelines in the LPG market [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated within the range of 3990 - 4100 yuan/ton. The rise in international crude oil prices briefly boosted the market, but the negative factors were concentrated in the domestic and international spot markets. The international LPG price fluctuated slightly, the domestic chemical demand fluctuated slightly, the combustion demand was weak, and the downstream purchased at low prices. The increase in imported shipments put pressure on the market, and the domestic spot price fluctuated downward [7]. 3.2 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread Overview - As of August 2, 2025, the prices of different LPG contracts (PG01 - PG12) and their inter - month and cross - month spreads had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the PG09 - PG10 spread was - 439 yuan/ton, with a 4.28% increase compared with the previous week and a 12.28% increase compared with the previous month [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.65 tons, including 20.98 tons of civil LPG, 20.30 tons of industrial LPG, and 17.74 tons of ether - post C4. The arrival volume of LPG was 65 tons. Two Shandong refineries resumed operation last week, increasing the supply. This week, one enterprise in Shandong is under maintenance, one enterprise in the Northwest has started its device, and some enterprises have increased their device loads. It is expected that the domestic commodity volume may continue to grow [5]. 3.3.2 Demand - The combustion demand remains weak, and it is difficult to improve significantly as it is the traditional off - season, and the downstream has little procurement demand, mainly replenishing as needed. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the oil product market performed poorly, the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises increased, which restricted the performance of products such as isooctane and MTBE, and weakened the demand for ether - post C4. This impact is expected to continue in August. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH maintenance has increased the operating rate, but the demand for propylene in the intermediate link and PP at the terminal is average in the off - season, the fundamentals are loose, and the profits of other downstream sectors have also suffered varying degrees of losses, so the C3 chain remains bearish [5]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG inventory in refineries was 18.08 tons, and the port inventory was 313.44 tons. This week, the LPG inventories of enterprises in various regions of the country remained stable overall. Only the inventory in Shandong increased slightly due to the increase in supply, while the inventory in East China decreased due to the boost of Fujian resources going to sea. The number of arriving ships at ports increased this period. Only in East China were the arriving ships affected by the typhoon, and the imported resources were relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, the chemical demand decreased slightly this period, and the combustion demand was tepid. The overall demand decreased slightly. With the high arrival volume, the port inventory showed an upward trend this period [5]. 3.3.4 Basis, Position - The weekly average basis was 72.63 yuan/ton in East China, 54.84 yuan/ton in South China, and 46.56 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 9759, an increase of 45. The lowest deliverable area was East China [5]. 3.3.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 566.00%, 404.40%, and 450.00% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 431 yuan/ton, - 333 yuan/ton, and 42.00 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 72.63, and the spread between the first and second - month contracts of PG was - 4.81 yuan/ton. The spot price has not yet bottomed out, the basis level is high, and there is still room for the absolute price to fall [5]. 3.3.7 Other - The fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is fluctuating downward. The market's bullish sentiment on the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal - chemical and new - energy chains has been given back. On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that Sino - US tariffs may ease [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the PG9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1] - SC crude oil fell over 3%, while焦炭 (coke) dropped nearly 3%, reflecting a significant downturn in energy and commodity prices [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil (LU),焦煤 (coking coal), and fuel oil all decreased by more than 2%, suggesting a broader decline in the energy sector [1] Group 2 - On the positive side,沪金 (Shanghai gold) and red dates saw an increase of over 1%, indicating some resilience in specific commodities [1] -沪锡 (Shanghai tin) and沪银 (Shanghai silver) also rose by nearly 1%, highlighting a slight uptick in precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that domestic futures main contracts experienced a decline, with most contracts closing lower on August 1st [1][2] - Coking coal fell by nearly 3%, while low-sulfur fuel oil and coking coal dropped over 2%, and fuel oil decreased by nearly 2% [1] - Other commodities such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), caustic soda, asphalt, palm oil, rubber, and rebar also saw declines exceeding 1% [1] - On the positive side, soybean meal increased by nearly 1% [1]