液化石油气(LPG)

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液化石油气日报:市场压力仍存,节后盘面消化利空-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:57
液化石油气日报 | 2025-10-10 市场压力仍存,节后盘面消化利空 市场分析 1、\t10月9日地区价格:山东市场,4520-4560;东北市场,4020-4280;华北市场,4350-4600;华东市场,4260-4630; 沿江市场,4590-4830;西北市场,4400-4500;华南市场,4548-4750。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 2、\t2025年11月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷540美元/吨,跌8美元/吨,丁烷520美元/吨,跌15美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4227元/吨,跌60元/吨,丁烷4070元/吨,跌115元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 3、\t2025年11月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷535美元/吨,跌6美元/吨,丁烷515美元/吨,跌13美元/吨,折 合人民币价格丙烷4188元/吨,跌44元/吨,丁烷4031元/吨,跌99元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1:山东民用液化气现货价格 | 单位:元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | 图2:华东民用液化气现货价格 | 单位:元/吨 3 ...
国内期货主力合约开盘涨跌互现 沪金涨超4%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-09 01:12
人民财讯10月9日电,国内期货主力合约开盘涨跌互现,沪金涨超4%,棕榈油、沪银涨超2%;跌幅方 面,生猪、鸡蛋、液化石油气(LPG)跌超4%,集运欧线、低硫燃料油(LU)跌超2%。 (原标题:国内期货主力合约开盘涨跌互现 沪金涨超4%) ...
液化石油气日报:节前卖方排库,下游逢低补货-20250930
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The mainstream price of LPG remains stable. Before the holiday, the demand is mainly for essential needs. Sellers focus on inventory reduction, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic supply also maintains an overall abundant state. The increase in the demand of the combustion terminal is lower than expected, and the growth of deep - processing is limited by profit factors. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG is relatively loose, and there is strong resistance in the market. After continuous corrections, it is expected that the short - term downward space of the futures market is limited, but it lacks the impetus to strengthen [1] Market Analysis - On September 29, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market: 4,550 - 4,600 yuan; Northeast market: 4,020 - 4,280 yuan; North China market: 4,400 - 4,650 yuan; East China market: 4,210 - 4,630 yuan; Yangtze River region market: 4,590 - 4,830 yuan; Northwest market: 4,400 - 4,500 yuan; South China market: 4,548 - 4,750 yuan [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 582 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,657 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,555 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 588 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 575 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,602 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] Figures - Figures include the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River region; the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River region, and Northwest; the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract; the near - month spread of PG futures; and the trading volume and open interest of PG futures' main contract and total [3]
液化石油气四季度展望:供应充裕,旺季需求想象空间有限
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:43
Report Overview - The report is titled "Supply Abundant, Limited Imagination Space for Peak-season Demand - Outlook for LPG in the Fourth Quarter" and is published by Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute on September 30, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - In the fourth quarter, although it is the traditional combustion peak season, the supply and demand of domestic LPG and overseas propane are expected to remain relatively loose. With limited contradictions, there is little chance of a trending market. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on the domestic market when prices are high and to be bearish on the overseas FEI [86] Q3 Market Review External Market - In Q3, the external market price was weak first and then strong. The change in trade flow and cargo flow bottlenecks pushed the relative valuation of the Far East Inbound Price (FEI) to strengthen significantly in August. The trading opportunities in Q3 were mostly short - term band trading opportunities caused by valuation deviations and short - term contradictions on the spot side [2][8] - In July, the external market was weak due to weak fundamentals and poor spot sentiment. Propane demand was dragged down by the year - on - year weakness in the cracking end, and the international supply surplus continued. In August, the relative valuation of FEI strengthened, mainly supported by the increase in transportation costs due to trade flow changes and cargo flow bottlenecks. In September, the contradiction weakened [8] Domestic Market - In Q3, the domestic market contradictions were stronger than those in the external market. Under the weak spot expectation, the number of warehouse receipts reached a record high. In July, the domestic market fell smoothly under the pressure of weak fundamentals in the off - season. The spot price was mainly lowered, and the number of PG registered warehouse receipts reached a record high, putting obvious pressure on the market [9][15] LPG Fundamental Outlook for the Fourth Quarter Supply Side United States - The net production of C3 in the United States has remained at a stable high level in Q3, and the commissioning of the Frac XVI fractionation unit in Q4 is expected to further increase the regional production. The current C3 inventory is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, at a seasonally neutral to high level [19] - The export volume of the United States has been basically stable at about 5.8 million tons per month this year. Although the export capacity of the docks has increased, the export volume is affected by multiple factors such as the actual change in Northeast Asian demand, the progress of China - US tariff games, and the passage of the Panama Canal [25] - The factors affecting the passage of the Panama Canal include drought, passage rules, and economy. In Q4, the focus is on the potential impact of USTR and possible hurricanes in the US Gulf on capacity allocation and loading [26][38] - The congestion of the Panama Canal in August temporarily pushed up the FEI - MB spread. The impact of USTR on the LPG market is expected to be limited, as the proportion of Chinese - operated ships is relatively low, and the market hype about USTR is gradually subsiding [31][42] Middle East - The CP price was weak in Q3. In Q4, the export increment in the Middle East is expected to be limited. The potential increment comes from OPEC+ production increase, but the export volume usually decreases seasonally in Q4 due to strong local demand in winter and seasonal maintenance of production facilities [50] Demand Side Combustion Demand - India's LPG import volume increased by 7.4% year - on - year to 17 million tons from January to September this year. The strong demand is supported by factors such as the growth of domestic terminal consumption, the commissioning of infrastructure projects, and the commissioning of new PDH devices. The annual import growth rate is expected to be about 6% [51][58] Chemical Demand - The LPG import volume of domestic flexible cracking terminals has decreased significantly this year due to China - US tariffs. In Q3, LPG had certain feedstock economic advantages over naphtha, but the overall LPG consumption in Far East cracking was weaker than last year. In Q4, it is difficult for FEI - MOPJ to provide strong economic incentives for LPG cracking feedstock demand [66] - The PDH demand may have reached a phased peak in Q3. In Q4, the operating rate is expected to be difficult to increase, and the feedstock demand is unlikely to have an optimistic performance, especially considering the expiration of the current China - US tariff plan in November [72] China - The domestic refinery gas commodity volume is abundant. In Q4, the external release volume is expected to further increase. Considering the high inventory in East China, the spot price in East China is expected to continue to be under pressure, and the lowest deliverable product of domestic civil LPG in October is still likely to be anchored in the East China region [85]
液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:国庆前后地缘扰动频繁,PG价格高位回落-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - **Cross - month Spread**: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - **Arbitrage**: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - **Local Refineries**: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - **LPG Production Device**: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - **PDH Device**: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - **Supply**: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - **Demand**: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - **Other Factors**: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment View**: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]
2019-2025年9月中旬液化石油气(LPG)市场价格变动统计分析
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-29 02:15
2019-2025年9月中旬液化石油气(LPG)市场价格变动统计图 数据来源:国家统计局 相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国液化石油气(LPG)行业竞争格局分析及投资发展研究 报告》 根据国家统计局公布的数据,石油天然气类别下的液化石油气(LPG)2025年9月中旬市场价格为 4507.7元/吨,同比下滑9.93%,环比上涨0.09%,纵观近5年同时期其价格,2022年9月中旬达到最大 值,有5738元/吨。 ...
液化石油气日报:LPG供需格局仍偏宽松,盘面显著回调-20250923
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 05:19
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose, and the futures market has significantly corrected. Although the market sentiment has improved with the marginal improvement of fundamentals and the rebound of external prices, the supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Overseas supply is abundant, and China's LPG arrivals and port inventories are high. After the increase in raw material costs, downstream chemical profits are under pressure again, and demand shows signs of a slight decline. The market may enter a range - bound state after adjustment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 22, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4570 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3970 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4460 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4500 - 4655 yuan/ton; South China market, 4548 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 597 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and butane at 584 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to 4673 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) for propane and 4572 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, propane was 590 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and butane was 577 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to 4619 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for propane and 4517 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1].
液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:利润负反馈效应凸显,PG价格震荡回落-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The intermediate - link propylene had good trading last week due to the previous cost increase and demand improvement, but PP faces saturated demand and the peak - season effect is weak, with poor price transmission efficiency. In the short term, PG shows a downward trend from its high level, and the negative feedback effect of downstream PDH profits is prominent. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the LPG futures fluctuated after rising, with an average price increase and a fluctuation range of 4430 - 4520 yuan/ton. The international market was strong, supporting the market trend, and the price reached a recent high. The domestic spot market was average, with both rises and falls, and the basis continued to weaken. In terms of demand, the chemical demand for propane slightly declined, but the combustion demand was expected to improve, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventories. However, the arrival of ships increased, and port inventories rose. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, in South China was 150 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 70 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in East China [5] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total domestic LPG commercial volume was about 538,500 tons (a decrease of 0.20%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 201,600 tons (a decrease of 1.75%), industrial gas was 214,100 tons, and ether - after C4 was 182,600 tons (an increase of 0.76%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. Some refineries increased self - use last week, and a plant in the Northwest resumed operation, so the supply slightly declined. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, but the plants of maintenance enterprises in the Northwest and other places continue to resume operation. It is expected that the domestic commercial volume may slightly increase [3] 3.3 Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is fading. In the C4 deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted but the operating rate is at a high level, the profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep, and the ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH unit to the propylene and PP links, and a negative profit feedback effect has emerged [3] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 180,300 tons (an increase of 0.67%), and the port inventory was 3,234,000 tons (an increase of 1.49%). The domestic LPG inventory varied last week. Affected by factors such as increased supply and weak demand in the West, Central China and other regions, the supply increased to some extent. In Shandong, North China, South China and other regions, the demand was stable, and manufacturers could control shipments, so the inventory pressure was relieved. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased slightly. With the increase in imported resources and the decline in demand, the port inventory showed a trend of accumulation [3] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 840 yuan/ton in East China, 1062 yuan/ton in South China, and 532 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 13,002 lots, a decrease of 1 lot, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [3] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 64.58%, 55.81%, and 43.82% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 256 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 90.50 yuan/ton respectively [3] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was - 4.35%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was not available. Due to the continuous increase in crude - oil production and the drag on the cost side, the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [3] 3.8 Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ will start the second round of production - increase cycle, and the EIA weekly crude - oil inventory showed a significant decline. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and it is expected that there will be two more interest - rate cuts this year. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [3] 3.9 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on SC and short on PG [3]
2019-2025年8月下旬液化石油气(LPG)市场价格变动统计分析
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-19 03:33
Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the competitive landscape and investment development of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of late August 2025, the market price of LPG is reported at 4433.8 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.51% and a month-on-month increase of 1.53% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years occurred in late August 2022, reaching 5622 yuan per ton [1]
国投期货能源日报-20250917
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 12:22
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Crude oil prices maintain a medium-term bearish trend, with short-term geopolitical factors causing temporary supply fluctuations and limited rebound space. Consider a strategy combining high-level short positions and call options [2]. - The spread between high- and low-sulfur fuel oils is difficult to compress further. Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread on dips [3]. - There is still support at the bottom of the asphalt futures price [4]. - The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, with good support at the spot end. Monitor the peak-season stocking market [5]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract up 1.07% intraday. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export ports affecting supply. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25bp, providing short-term support to the commodity market [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The rebound in crude oil drives up fuel oil futures. Russian fuel oil shipments have declined, while domestic refinery demand and Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel consumption have increased. China's low-sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased by 900,000 tons, but the utilization rate is low, and supply pressure is not prominent [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures are mainly oscillating. Recent data shows a slight reduction in refinery inventories and a 50,000-ton weekly decline in social inventories. The increase and subsequent decrease in warehouse receipts in East China help relieve the downward pressure on spot prices in the region. Prices in South China and Hebei are temporarily stable [4]. LPG - The overseas market remains strong, with strong import demand and geopolitical risks boosting sentiment. Typhoons in South China have reduced imports, while good chemical profit margins support high operating rates. The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and the spot end has good support [5].