原油日报 | 2025-07-09 印度将增加美国LPG进口 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨40美分，收于每桶68.33美元，涨幅为0.59%；9月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨57美分，收于每桶70.15美元，涨幅为0.82%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.26%，报516元/桶。 2、联合组织数据倡议（JODI）最新公布的数据显示，沙特阿拉伯4月份的原油出口量较3月份大幅增长41.2万桶/ 日。与此同时，沙特4月份的原油产量也较3月的896万桶/日增加了约4.8万桶/日。这一产量增长的背后，是OPEC+ 逐步取消总计220万桶/日的石油减产计划。自4月份以来，沙特阿拉伯一直在稳步提高原油产量。自今年初开始逐 步放松减产措施以来，OPEC+的主要产油国沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔 及利亚和阿曼在4月份产量小幅增加了13.8万桶/日，并计划在5月、6月和7月分别大幅提高产量配额41.1万桶/日。 在本周末的会议上，OPEC+集团宣布将在8月份增产54.8万桶/日，这一决定超出了市场预期，令市场感到意外。(来 源：Bloomberg） 3、EI ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-07-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...

H > 卡玛利拉 斐波纳契 经典 平行通道 楔形 谐波形态 行情异动复盘 期货盯盘神器早盘分享：铁矿石尾盘出现主买资金炸弹，关注行情延续性；焦煤出现新的多头堆积带，一图了解苹果、纯碱、 PVC、液化石油气（LPG）等热门品种出现的关键市场信号。 铁矿石主力合约在9:55、9:57引爆资金炸弹，主买 成交占比分别为69.88%、56.13%，成交额超11亿 元;此外,在11:29引爆一个主买资金占比高达 84.75%的资金炸弹,关注午盘行情延续性。 日 日 日 == E E E 3 G 。 年 百日见 第四 E R B R B S E N B B B . 第 第 第 第 日 8 第 日 0 - 最新发展出血 日 第二日 第 E 8 - 8 器 装 品 品 品 。 。 出 中 品 品 年 员 K 第 B 등 5 展出品展出品 聚氯乙烯（PVC）主力合约在10:03、10:05、10:07 引爆多个资金炸弹,主卖资金占比均超50%，并推 动行情快速下挫。 圆 订单流 ▼ 577 高:7672 低:7652 开:7664 收:7652 苹果主力合约在10:56、10:58、11:00、11:02、 11:04引爆多个 ...

2025年07月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：PTA新装置投产在即，PX供需仍偏紧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA止盈，月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市，月差逢低正套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：震荡上行，估值下修 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱震荡 | 11 | | PP：现货下跌，成交平淡 | 13 | | 烧碱：液氯降价，成本抬升 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 19 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 25 | | LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | 26 | | PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 29 | | 燃料油：夜盘跟随原油价格上涨，短期波动或再次放大 | 31 | | 低硫燃料油：强势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差高位震荡 | 31 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 32 | ...

美国财政部授权（与美方制裁相关的）通用许可证，至9月5日都可以在委内瑞拉卸载液化石油气 （LPG）货物。 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【OPEC+增产决议影响多类油品市场】周六，OPEC+做出8月增产54.8万桶/天的决议，超出市场预期。 不过今日亚盘市场表现平淡。分析认为，OPEC+快速增产对三季度油价冲击暂时有限。部分产油国实 际产量高于目标产量，且有减产补偿计划约束，实际月度增产量小于目标上调幅度。同时，三季度是汽 油、航煤需求旺季，增产可得到需求端承接。但三季度旺季过后，若美国对等关税政策延续， OPEC+产量回归将利空基本面，在中东局势可控下，油价重心或下移。原油短期仍判断三季度底部抬 升，关注7月9日美国对等关税大限宏观情绪指引。 今日，原油开盘走弱带动燃油系期货走低，FU在油 品中表现最弱。高硫方面，船加注及深加工需求低迷，中东、北非夏季发电对高硫燃油需求提振不足， 中东冲突缓和解除供应风险，FU单边及裂解持续走弱。低硫方面，此前焦化利润走强使低硫燃料油短 期供应压力有限，6月下旬以来新加坡柴油裂解走强也有提振，但需求缺乏明显驱动，LU走势震荡，短 期裂解震荡偏强。 今日油价开盘走弱，BU随之向下。截至目前，54家样本炼厂出货量环比小幅下滑， 累计同比增幅从上周的8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].

夜盘开盘，国内期货主力合约几乎全线下跌。焦煤、纯碱、甲醇、低硫燃料油（LU）跌超1%，PX、 SC原油、液化石油气（LPG）跌近1%。涨幅方面，沪铅、沪银小幅上涨。 ...

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：窄幅震荡 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：短期弱势调整为主，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片：短期 ...

半年度报告——液化石油气 供应弹性增大，化工需求面临压力 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 液化石油气：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 6 月 | 年 | 27 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | [★Ta增bl量e_空Su间mm犹a存ry]，地缘冲突加剧供应不确定性 若下半年地缘冲突维持当前烈度或进一步缓解，全球供应端可 以期待美国码头的扩产、OPEC+的减产放松分别给到出口 30、 15 万吨/月的可观增量空间。但当前国际局势尚不明朗，若后续 地缘风险再次升温，则供应端收紧的压力将高于增量空间可以 提供的弹性。 能 ★需求端亮点有限，关税摩擦下化工需求前景堪忧 与 碳 中 和 下半年燃烧需求增量空间有限，化工需求在多变的市场环境下 对利润更加敏感，易受到负面冲击。受中美关税博弈影响，国 内灵活裂解丙烷进口量、PDH 开工率二季度明显下滑。下半年 预期关税摩擦延续下 PDH 装置利润的修复空间非常有限，难以 给到长停装置回归动力，开工率很难环比上行。PDH 装置相对 其他主要制烯烃路线 ...