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杰瑞股份20251125
2025-11-26 14:15
Summary of Jerry Corporation Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jerry Corporation - **Industry**: Oil and Gas Equipment Services - **Key Business Segments**: Oil (50% revenue), Natural Gas (25% revenue), Gas Turbines (low revenue but high potential) [2][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Business**: - Oil-related business primarily involves fracturing equipment and underwater EPC projects, with a revenue share of approximately 50% [4] - Anticipated increase in capital expenditure (capex) from global oil companies will drive demand for oil service equipment [2][4] - The development of aging oil fields is expected to boost demand for pressure equipment [2][4] 2. **Natural Gas Business**: - Natural gas revenue accounts for about 25% of total revenue, but backlog orders represent nearly 50% [2][4] - Growth is supported by large projects in North America and the Middle East, as well as the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [2][4][20] - Seen as the fastest-growing segment outside the core business [2][4] 3. **Gas Turbine Business**: - Currently a smaller revenue contributor but with significant growth potential due to North America's electricity shortages and expansion of the turbine supply chain [2][5] - Strong partnerships with major suppliers like Siemens and GE Baker Hughes are expected to enhance growth [2][5][22][23] 4. **Financial Performance**: - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.96 billion, 3.82 billion, and 4.61 billion RMB respectively [3][24] - Anticipated valuation of 82 billion RMB, with a recommendation to maintain a "buy" rating [3][24] 5. **Industry Trends**: - Global oil and gas capital expenditure peaked at $462 billion in 2014, dropped to $182 billion in 2020, but is expected to reach approximately $300 billion by 2024 [8] - Exploration and development spending has increased since 2020, but the cost of discovering new oil and gas has surged significantly [9][10] 6. **Market Dynamics**: - The relationship between oil prices and capital expenditure has weakened post-2020 due to changes in OPEC strategies and regional production strategies [12][16] - Domestic oil service companies, including Jerry, are performing well internationally, particularly in the Middle East [17] Additional Important Insights - **Pressure Equipment Demand**: - Increased demand for pressure equipment due to aging oil fields and the need for enhanced recovery methods [19] - Transition from traditional hydraulic pressure products to electric-driven pressure products presents structural growth opportunities [19] - **Natural Gas Market Outlook**: - Significant LNG capacity growth expected, particularly in Qatar and North America, with a projected increase of 40% by 2030 [20] - High levels of investment in natural gas projects indicate a strong pipeline of future orders [20] - **Stock Performance and Future Potential**: - Jerry Corporation's stock has shown strong performance in 2025, with future growth driven by the natural gas segment and gas turbine business [25] - Historical stock performance suggests potential for significant price increases based on current growth drivers [25]