Summary of Jerry Corporation Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jerry Corporation - **Industry**: Oil and Gas Equipment Services - **Key Business Segments**: Oil (50% revenue), Natural Gas (25% revenue), Gas Turbines (low revenue but high potential) [2][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Business**: - Oil-related business primarily involves fracturing equipment and underwater EPC projects, with a revenue share of approximately 50% [4] - Anticipated increase in capital expenditure (capex) from global oil companies will drive demand for oil service equipment [2][4] - The development of aging oil fields is expected to boost demand for pressure equipment [2][4] 2. **Natural Gas Business**: - Natural gas revenue accounts for about 25% of total revenue, but backlog orders represent nearly 50% [2][4] - Growth is supported by large projects in North America and the Middle East, as well as the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [2][4][20] - Seen as the fastest-growing segment outside the core business [2][4] 3. **Gas Turbine Business**: - Currently a smaller revenue contributor but with significant growth potential due to North America's electricity shortages and expansion of the turbine supply chain [2][5] - Strong partnerships with major suppliers like Siemens and GE Baker Hughes are expected to enhance growth [2][5][22][23] 4. **Financial Performance**: - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.96 billion, 3.82 billion, and 4.61 billion RMB respectively [3][24] - Anticipated valuation of 82 billion RMB, with a recommendation to maintain a "buy" rating [3][24] 5. **Industry Trends**: - Global oil and gas capital expenditure peaked at $462 billion in 2014, dropped to $182 billion in 2020, but is expected to reach approximately $300 billion by 2024 [8] - Exploration and development spending has increased since 2020, but the cost of discovering new oil and gas has surged significantly [9][10] 6. **Market Dynamics**: - The relationship between oil prices and capital expenditure has weakened post-2020 due to changes in OPEC strategies and regional production strategies [12][16] - Domestic oil service companies, including Jerry, are performing well internationally, particularly in the Middle East [17] Additional Important Insights - **Pressure Equipment Demand**: - Increased demand for pressure equipment due to aging oil fields and the need for enhanced recovery methods [19] - Transition from traditional hydraulic pressure products to electric-driven pressure products presents structural growth opportunities [19] - **Natural Gas Market Outlook**: - Significant LNG capacity growth expected, particularly in Qatar and North America, with a projected increase of 40% by 2030 [20] - High levels of investment in natural gas projects indicate a strong pipeline of future orders [20] - **Stock Performance and Future Potential**: - Jerry Corporation's stock has shown strong performance in 2025, with future growth driven by the natural gas segment and gas turbine business [25] - Historical stock performance suggests potential for significant price increases based on current growth drivers [25]

Investment Strategy - The oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. This trend is expected to continue as major energy companies face pressure from policies aimed at carbon reduction and are shifting focus towards energy transition and renewable projects [10][27]. - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, and the cost of new wells is close to current oil prices, limiting profit margins. This suggests that the growth rate of US oil production is likely to slow down, with evidence of this trend emerging in the first half of 2025 [10][27]. - OPEC+ has implemented production cuts that exceed expectations, indicating that there will be limited supply growth in the coming year [10][27]. Oil Industry - OPEC has shifted its outlook from a supply shortage to an anticipated oversupply in the global oil market, resulting in a significant drop in oil prices. Brent crude oil prices fell to $63.14 per barrel, down 2.56% week-on-week, while WTI prices decreased to $59.69 per barrel, down 0.65% [11][32]. - The report suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from the mid-high price fluctuations of oil, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [11]. Coal Industry - The market for thermal coal remains stable, with prices experiencing fluctuations. The average market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 817.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.67% from the previous week. However, downstream demand remains cautious, with many buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach [12][13]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic coal companies like China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, which are expected to benefit from the stable pricing environment and their resource advantages [13]. Natural Gas Industry - There is a growing demand for LNG imports in Asia, driven by energy transition efforts in major economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea. This has led to active negotiations for long-term contracts with major LNG exporting countries [15][16]. - The average price of natural gas in the US increased to $4.5 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 4.6% rise from the previous week [15][30]. Oilfield Services Industry - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at ensuring energy security. In 2023, the total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies reached 583.3 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% since 2018 [17][18]. - The report indicates that despite falling oil prices, capital expenditures remain high, which is likely to sustain the industry's overall health [17].