杰瑞股份 20251125 摘要 杰瑞股份油气业务占比约 50%，受全球石油公司资本开支影响，预计未 来资本开支增加将带动油服装备需求增长，老旧油气田开发推动增压设 备需求。 天然气业务收入占比约 25%，但订单占比接近 50%，北美和中东大型 项目及液化天然气发展提供增长预期，天然气被视为公司主业外增速最 快板块。 燃气轮机业务收入占比低但潜力大，北美缺电及产业链扩产推动需求， 杰瑞作为 OEM 制造商，与西门子、GE 贝克休斯等合作关系良好，预期 业务高速增长。 全球油气资本开支虽提升但低于 2012-2014 年高峰，产能持续回落， 装备和服务价格上涨，推动行业 ROE 提升，杰瑞凭借产品优势有望保持 良好财务表现。 油气勘探开发支出自 2020 年后增长，但勘探难度增加，每发现 1 亿吨 油气对应的勘探支出大幅飙升，老旧油田增产服务需求空间广阔。 国内油服公司在国际市场表现出色，以杰瑞股份为代表，来自中东的天 然气订单快速增长，受益于海外国际油服龙头公司的订单溢出效应。 预计杰瑞股份 2025-2027 年净利润分别为 29.6 亿元、38.2 亿元和 46.1 亿元，维持"推荐"评级，预计明年燃气轮 ...

Summary of Huadong Cable Conference Call Company Overview - Huadong Cable is a company with a significant overseas revenue share, projected to reach 67% in 2024, with a gross profit contribution of 73%, indicating strong risk resilience and competitive advantage in the context of global trade tensions [2][4][5]. Core Business and Profitability - The core business includes traditional cable operations and oil service engineering, with a profit of approximately 3.3 billion RMB and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 15% [3]. - The company has expanded into lithium battery electrolyte production in Angola, benefiting from lower local electricity costs, which are approximately 4,000 RMB per ton cheaper than domestic rates, leading to an estimated annual profit increase of over 300 million RMB from this new venture [3][9]. Financial Projections - Expected profits for Huadong Cable's main business are projected to exceed 400 million RMB in 2025, with the Angola aluminum project contributing nearly 600 million RMB, leading to an overall profit estimate close to 1 billion RMB [2][10]. - Future profit potential could reach over 2 billion RMB in the coming years, driven by the expansion of the aluminum project [10]. Strategic Importance of Angola Project - The Angolan aluminum project is viewed as a strategic initiative, with the Angolan president emphasizing its importance during a visit to China in March 2024, indicating high certainty for the project's success [2][13]. - The project leverages Angola's abundant and inexpensive hydroelectric resources, significantly reducing production costs compared to domestic operations [8][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Huadong Cable's overseas market presence includes operations in China, South Korea, Tanzania, and Cameroon, effectively mitigating trade barriers and enhancing global market share [4][11]. - The company has a family-run management structure, ensuring stability and alignment in long-term strategic goals [12]. Historical Performance - In 2023, the net profit from traditional operations was 360 million RMB, which is expected to decline to 320 million RMB in 2024 due to foreign exchange losses, but is projected to recover to around 400 million RMB in 2025 [7]. Industry Context - The domestic aluminum industry faces overcapacity, while the global demand remains strong, positioning Huadong Cable favorably for future growth [6]. - The company’s expansion plans include building a comprehensive aluminum industrial park in Angola, with a total capacity exceeding 500,000 tons planned over the next 8 to 10 years [18]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a market capitalization increase from 7 billion RMB to over 15 billion RMB, indicating a potential doubling in value over three years [10]. - Huadong Cable's valuation is considered attractive, with projected P/E ratios significantly lower than comparable companies in the industry [24][25][26]. Conclusion - Huadong Cable is positioned as a key player in the cable and aluminum industries, with strong overseas operations, strategic projects in Angola, and a solid growth trajectory, making it a recommended investment opportunity for the coming years [27].