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油脂日报:多空因素交织,油脂震荡调整-20251105
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Affected by the Sino - Canadian trade tariff friction, the prices of rapeseed oils were firm. However, the production side of palm oil remained relatively loose. Coupled with the impact of export data, the expectation of inventory accumulation increased, and there were certain uncertainties in the B50 policy, leading to the oscillatory adjustment of oil and fat prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,616.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan or 0.55% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,108.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.00 yuan or 0.02%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,443.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.00 yuan or 0.29% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.58%, and the spot basis was P01 - 116.00, a decrease of 2.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,320.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 60.00 yuan/ton or 0.73%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 212.00, an increase of 62.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 347.00, a decrease of 23.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market News - Logistics: The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Logistics Prosperity Index for October. In October, the index remained in the expansion range, with sub - indexes such as the business volume index, new order index, and capital turnover index all in the prosperity range. The index was 50.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Although the logistics business volume index had a slight decline, the overall demand remained in expansion [2] - Agriculture: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on autumn sowing in the Huang - Huai - Hai region. The wheat output in this region accounts for about 90% of the national total. Continuous rainy weather has delayed the sowing period and slowed down the progress, posing challenges to the safe overwintering of winter wheat. The meeting emphasized efforts to ensure the sowing of winter wheat and rapeseed, and strengthen support and guarantee for autumn and winter sowing [2] - Overseas Agriculture: As of November 4, Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.9 million hectares of winter crops for the 2026 harvest, accounting for about 90% of the expected planting area. Farmers plan to expand the winter grain sowing area in 2026 to at least 5.43 million hectares, higher than 5.24 million hectares in 2025 [2] - Inventory: As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 573,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 4.72% from the previous week; the contract volume was 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 27.30% from the previous week [2] - Import Price: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 518 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,116 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,126 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]