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中远海能(600026):VLCC-TCE显著高于市场平均,下半年进一步改善
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-30 09:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company's VLCC-TCE is significantly above the market average, with expectations for further improvement in the second half of the year [1][7] - The report highlights that the actual VLCC freight rates are expected to remain strong, driven by increased oil production and demand [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 23,311 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 4,383 million yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is forecasted to be 0.92 yuan [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 28.3% in 2025, increasing to 34.4% by 2027 [6] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the oil transportation market, with VLCC freight rates projected at 55,000/65,000/80,000 USD/day for 2025-2027 [7] Segment Performance - LNG transportation contributed a net profit of 204 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 12.09% year-on-year [7] - The foreign trade oil tanker segment reported a gross profit of 537 million yuan, down 55.88% year-on-year, despite a 17.77% increase in cargo turnover [7] - The LPG and chemical transportation segments contributed a combined gross profit of 30 million yuan [7] Market Comparison - The company's market capitalization is approximately 35,755 million yuan, with a price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) of 0.86 times [2][7] - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, noting that it is relatively reasonable compared to similar companies [7]