智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，进入8月以来受OPEC+持续增产、美国以印度进口俄油为由 加征关税以及短期货盘影响，VLCC运价持续回升。以CTFI指数中的CT1航线(中东湾(沙特阿拉伯·拉斯 坦努拉)至中国宁波)为参考，其运价自7月底的不到2万美元/天回升至8月22日的4.71万美元/天(准航 速)。原油运尤其是VLCC市场供给相对刚性，合规市场需求在OPEC+增产节奏加快、美国持续加强对 伊朗和俄罗斯原油制裁的背景下迎来边际利好，且行业四季度进入传统旺季，预计运价中枢有望抬升。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 8月行业淡季，VLCC运价持续回升 2025年1月中旬至5月，VLCC运价基本维持较高位运行，其中4月运价突破5万美元/天，淡季不淡；6月 13日起，受伊朗和以色列冲突影响，中东地区航运风险增加，船东心理预期也进一步支撑运价，VLCC 运价由13日的1.84万美元/天快速涨至6月24日的7.22万美元/天；此后受伊以冲突结束影响，市场情绪降 温，运价持续回调。但进入8月以来受OPEC+持续增产、美国以印度进口俄油为由加征关税以及短期货 盘影响，VLCC运价持续回升。以CTFI指数中的CT1航线(中东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has led to a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, indicating potential opportunities in the oil transportation sector [2][3]. Geopolitical Risks and Oil Transportation - The recent military actions between Israel and Iran have heightened geopolitical risks, particularly affecting oil transportation routes. Approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which includes 34% of maritime oil exports. Any closure of this strait by Iran could severely disrupt global oil trade [3]. - The conflict has also raised the likelihood of increased sanctions on Iranian oil production and sales, which could lead to a surge in compliant oil transportation demand. In early 2025, Iran's oil production was around 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 4% of global maritime oil exports [3]. Market Performance - Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.60%. The transportation sector showed a slight increase of 0.05%, ranking 13th among all sectors. The sub-sectors of express delivery, shipping, and ports experienced gains, while public transport, airports, and airlines faced declines [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the transportation sector [6] Core Views - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, leading to a surge in VLCC freight rates. As of June 15, the freight rate for the VLCC Middle East to China route increased from approximately 40 WS points to 58.5 WS points [2] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has raised the risks associated with oil transportation, with potential sanctions on Iranian oil production likely to increase demand for compliant oil transportation [3] - The transportation sector is expected to see a recovery in oil shipping rates due to geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Iranian oil, which could lead to a shift in market share towards OPEC+ and U.S. shale oil producers [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed a slight increase of 0.05%, ranking 13th among all sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25% [4][9] 2. Shipping Industry 2.1 Oil Shipping - As of June 12, the BDTI index was at 909 points, down 4.4% from the previous week. VLCC rates were at $25,096 per day, down 7.7% [16] - The geopolitical situation has led to increased oil transportation risks, with approximately 11% of global maritime trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3] 2.2 Container Shipping - The SCFI index averaged 2,088 points as of June 13, down 6.8%. European freight rates increased by 10.6%, while rates for the U.S. West Coast decreased by 26.5% [35] 3. Air Transportation - In April 2025, domestic passenger traffic in China reached 54.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. International passenger traffic increased by 25.9% [59][67] 4. Express Delivery - In May 2025, the volume of express delivery services reached 17.3 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, with revenue of 125.6 billion yuan, up 8.2% [72][76] 5. Railway and Road Transportation - In April 2025, railway freight turnover was 3,019 billion ton-kilometers, up 8.4% year-on-year, while road freight turnover was 6,886 billion ton-kilometers, up 2.8% [82][84]

现货需求相对疲软 VLCC市场运价承压 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【运价】 油运运价：5/9日波罗的海原油运输指数BDTI报995，环比-1.00%，同比-13.48%。成品油运价：5/9日波罗的海成品油运输 指数BCTI报573，环比+0.35%，同比-43.55%。 【综合分析】 目前 BDTI 维持震荡走势，OPEC+自 5 月开始逐步增产 41.1 万桶/日，高于此前市场预期，或将增加全球原油的海运需求。 4 月下旬和 5 月初货源集中流出，对 VLCC 船市场带来一定支撑，后续还需关注货源释放节奏对运价的影响。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 1. 本周三大原油油轮市场加权收益环比维持下跌走势 数据来源：Clarksons，银河期货 数据来源：Clarksons ，银河期货 数据来源：Clarksons ，银河期货 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1][4][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of US-China tariffs on shipping patterns, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors [1][3]. - The oil shipping market remains strong, but VLCC rates have declined due to tariff uncertainties, with potential recovery if US-China negotiations succeed [1][21]. - The air travel market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with domestic airlines showing signs of recovery in profitability [2][45]. - The express delivery sector shows resilience, with major players like SF Express and ZTO Express expected to maintain growth despite competitive pressures [3][55][59]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - Oil shipping rates have shown fluctuations, with VLCC rates impacted by tariff policies and global economic uncertainties [1][21]. - The report recommends companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy for their potential value amidst market volatility [1][25]. Aviation Sector - Domestic passenger flight volumes are stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase expected in 2025 [2][45]. - Major airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines are projected to recover profitability as supply-demand gaps narrow [2][45]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery market is experiencing strong growth, particularly in Southeast Asia and China, with companies like SF Express and ZTO Express leading the way [3][55][59]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring pricing trends in the express delivery sector due to competitive dynamics [3][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable operations and potential for steady returns, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and major airlines [3][2][45].