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国泰海通|交运:元旦假期出游旺盛,油运假期运价回落
Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to recover in supply and demand throughout the year, with a focus on reversing internal competition and boosting consumption. Demand growth is anticipated to drive ticket prices and profitability upward, suggesting a contrarian approach to the super cycle [1] - For the New Year holiday, travel demand is expected to be strong, with December's volume and pricing likely to exceed expectations. By 2025, the industry is projected to see a 5-6% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic, with domestic traffic up 4% and international traffic up 22%. The passenger load factor is expected to increase by 1.7 percentage points, reaching a historical high [1] - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, despite a rise since September. The holiday effect is expected to support strong travel demand, with airlines optimistic about post-holiday business travel recovery [1] - The industry is entering a low growth phase in supply, with high passenger load factors and historically low ticket prices. The market's ticket pricing is becoming more market-driven, and the recovery in demand and passenger structure is expected to sustain profitability growth [1] Oil Shipping Industry - The oil shipping market has entered the traditional off-season during the Christmas holiday, with crude oil freight rates expected to decline as anticipated. The increase in crude oil production from the Middle East and South America has been evident, and India's reduction of Russian oil imports has driven VLCC TCE rates to rise significantly [2] - The VLCC TCE rate for the Middle East to China route has dropped to $57,000, reflecting a substantial correction from previous highs. Despite this, the annual average profitability for oil shipping is expected to reach a ten-year high [2] - The outlook for oil shipping remains optimistic, with expectations of continued demand growth driven by global crude oil production increases. The aging fleet of oil tankers and limited growth in compliant market capacity are expected to support a favorable trend in oil shipping profitability [2] - The recommendation is to maintain a bullish stance on both aviation and oil shipping sectors, as the super cycle in aviation may begin, and the outlook for oil shipping remains positive despite short-term fluctuations [2]