Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has a highly optimistic outlook for gold prices, predicting a significant rise to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by strong demand from emerging market central banks and global investors [1][3]. Group 1: Price Predictions - The global head of macro and fixed income strategy at Morgan Stanley, Alex Wolf, anticipates that gold prices will likely reach between $5,200 and $5,300 by the end of 2026, representing a cumulative increase of over 25% from current levels [3]. - The current strong upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, with a breakthrough anticipated by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Emerging market central banks currently have a relatively low proportion of gold in their overall foreign exchange reserves, which serves as a fundamental driver for continued accumulation [3]. - Despite potential slowdowns in purchasing due to rising gold prices, the long-term trend of increasing gold holdings by central banks is expected to persist [3]. Group 3: Investment Demand - Global investors' demand for gold is on the rise, with a relatively limited allocation in their investment portfolios. Even a modest increase to a 5% allocation could release significant incremental demand, further supporting gold price increases [3]. - Concerns over the stability of currency systems have led both institutional and individual investors to increase their gold allocations, viewing it as a hedge against currency depreciation risks [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Purchases - In the 12 months leading up to September, global central banks added a total of 634 tons of gold to their official reserves, indicating sustained high levels of gold purchases despite a decrease from the previous three years [4]. - It is projected that global central bank gold purchases will remain between 750 to 900 tons annually through 2025 [4].