Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index has confirmed a breakthrough above 40,000 points, creating a favorable dual scenario of "index rise and increased volatility," with options market sentiment shifting to support further short-term gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 30, Nomura Securities reported that the Nikkei 225 index has significantly risen over several trading days, reaching a new high for the year by surpassing 40,000 points [1]. - Historical data from Nomura indicates that after a sharp rise in call option skew, the index has averaged a gain of over 3% in subsequent trading days since 2010 [5]. Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - The call option skew has sharply increased, rising above the 95th percentile historically, indicating a strong foundation for further increases in the Nikkei 225 index in the short term [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the current market structure and options flow provide strong technical support for the Japanese stock market, with a key resistance level at approximately 41,500 points [8]. Group 3: ETF Dividend Impact - Nomura expects that the upcoming ETF dividends, estimated at around 600 billion yen on July 8 and 900 billion yen on July 10, will not exert significant pressure on the market due to anticipated buying from CTA funds [9][10]. - The firm notes that investors are likely to remember last year's experience when ETF dividends did not catalyze selling pressure, and instead, the Nikkei 225 index reached new highs [9]. Group 4: CTA Fund Activity - Nomura estimates that CTA funds will net buy approximately 600 billion yen in Nikkei 225 index futures over the next four weeks, which could offset any selling pressure related to ETF dividends [10]. - The accumulation of long positions by CTA funds has been noted as a market-moving factor, particularly after the Nikkei 225 index surpassed 39,500 points [12].