Group 1 - The Indonesian benchmark stock index rose by 1% to 7,209.17 points [1] - Indonesian President Prabowo announced that the U.S. will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index has confirmed a breakthrough above 40,000 points, creating a favorable dual scenario of "index rise and increased volatility," with options market sentiment shifting to support further short-term gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 30, Nomura Securities reported that the Nikkei 225 index has significantly risen over several trading days, reaching a new high for the year by surpassing 40,000 points [1]. - Historical data from Nomura indicates that after a sharp rise in call option skew, the index has averaged a gain of over 3% in subsequent trading days since 2010 [5]. Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - The call option skew has sharply increased, rising above the 95th percentile historically, indicating a strong foundation for further increases in the Nikkei 225 index in the short term [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the current market structure and options flow provide strong technical support for the Japanese stock market, with a key resistance level at approximately 41,500 points [8]. Group 3: ETF Dividend Impact - Nomura expects that the upcoming ETF dividends, estimated at around 600 billion yen on July 8 and 900 billion yen on July 10, will not exert significant pressure on the market due to anticipated buying from CTA funds [9][10]. - The firm notes that investors are likely to remember last year's experience when ETF dividends did not catalyze selling pressure, and instead, the Nikkei 225 index reached new highs [9]. Group 4: CTA Fund Activity - Nomura estimates that CTA funds will net buy approximately 600 billion yen in Nikkei 225 index futures over the next four weeks, which could offset any selling pressure related to ETF dividends [10]. - The accumulation of long positions by CTA funds has been noted as a market-moving factor, particularly after the Nikkei 225 index surpassed 39,500 points [12].

Group 1 - The German DAX 30 index rose by 0.36%, reaching a record closing high of 24021.43 points [1] - The French stock index increased by 0.74% [1] - The Italian stock index saw a rise of 0.84%, with the banking index up by 0.85% [1] Group 2 - The UK stock index experienced a preliminary increase of 0.92% [1] - The Danish stock index rose by 2.55% [1] - The Copenhagen 25 index increased by 1.42% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Sino-US tariff policy adjustments have led to marginal improvements in the external environment. Although China's April social financing and credit data were weaker than market expectations, the financial system's support for the real economy remained strong. The stock index continued its upward trend, with the new regulations in the public fund industry driving the non-bank financial sector to lead the gains, further strengthening the performance of large-cap stock indices [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Policy Adjustments**: Since May 14th, China has suspended 28 US entities from the export control list and 17 from the unreliable entity list for 90 days. The US has revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods, implemented a 34% reciprocal tariff measure (with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained), and adjusted tariffs on small packages [1] - **Macroeconomic Data**: As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, M2 by 8%, and RMB loans by 7.2% (over 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement). The growth rates were significantly faster than the previous month [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: A-share indices opened higher and closed lower. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.86% to 3403.95 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. Most sector indices rose, with non-bank finance, transportation, and food and beverage leading the gains. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.3 trillion yuan. US stocks closed mixed, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising for three consecutive days [2] - **Futures Market**: The futures market's activity increased. The delivery of the current-month futures contracts is approaching, with the basis converging. Both trading volume and open interest increased [2] 2. Strategy - The synchronized tariff policy adjustments between China and the US have improved the external environment. Despite weak social financing and credit data in April, the financial system's support for the real economy remains strong. The stock index's upward trend continues, and the non-bank financial sector's strength, driven by new regulations in the public fund industry, has further boosted large-cap stock indices [3] 3. Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A-share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [6][8][11] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On May 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.86% to 3403.95, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 10354.22, the ChiNext Index rose 1.01% to 2083.14, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.21% to 3943.21, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.87% to 2753.79, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.30% to 5799.12, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.15% to 6160.37 [13] - **Other Indicators**: The charts also show the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][14] 5. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract increased by 56,184 to 139,424, and the open interest increased by 25,069 to 273,673 [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of the futures contracts showed different changes. For instance, the current-month basis of the IF contract was -0.21, an increase of 4.05 [39] - **Other Indicators**: The charts also display the open interest, open interest ratio, and net open interest of foreign investors for each contract [6]