智通财经APP获悉，当地时间10月10日，据报道，日本公明党党首齐藤铁夫向自民党新任总裁高市早苗传达了"脱离执政联盟框架"的方针意向。有公 明党高层也证实，该党将脱离与自民党的执政联盟。执政近四分之一个世纪的联盟濒临瓦解对于尚未正式就任首相的高市早苗而言是一个重大打击， 同时也令人们对日本政府未来政策方向的担忧加剧。 据悉，高市早苗与齐藤铁夫的会谈未能就政党资金规则的分歧达成一致。齐藤铁夫随后明确表态，若没有达成联合执政协议，公明党将不会在未来几 天的首相选举中投票支持高市早苗。 有分析认为，尽管失去公明党的支持，但由于自民党仍是日本国会两院的最大力量，高市早苗大概率仍将成为下一任首相。然而，此次合作的终结将 给日本未来的政治和立法议程带来了极大的不确定性。失去公明党的支持后，高市早苗政府在国会推动预算案和各项法案时将面临"更深的困难"。 在高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁之后，市场出现了所谓的"高市交易"，即押注高市早苗领导下的日本政府将推出大规模财政刺激措施，并实施宽松的 货币政策。这一押注推动日本股市走高、日元走软。 如今，自民党与公明党执政联盟的破裂令所谓的"高市交易"出现逆转。截至发稿，日经225指数期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index futures rose by 0.9% following the announcement of a trade agreement between Trump and Japan [1] Group 1 - The announcement of the trade agreement has positively impacted market sentiment, reflected in the increase of the Nikkei 225 index futures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese Senate election results have led to increased political uncertainty, impacting the Japanese yen and stock market, with expectations of continued volatility in the coming weeks [1][6][8]. Group 1: Election Impact - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lost its majority in the Senate for the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955, raising concerns about Japan's political stability [1][3]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed his intention to continue governing despite the election setback, emphasizing the responsibility of the ruling party [3][7]. Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The yen appreciated slightly against the dollar, recovering some losses from the previous weeks, trading around 148, but remains under pressure due to political uncertainties [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the yen may experience downward volatility, with expectations of trading between 145 and 150 against the dollar in the near term [1][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The political uncertainty is expected to weaken investor confidence in Japanese assets, potentially leading to a decline in the Nikkei index [6][8]. - The upcoming U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will be critical factors influencing the yen's performance, with analysts suggesting that the yen's downward pressure may persist due to rising fiscal deficits and bond yields [7][8].

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lost its majority in the Japanese House of Councillors for the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955, raising political uncertainty in Japan [1][2] - The Japanese yen appreciated slightly by 0.7% against the US dollar, recovering some losses from the previous week, trading around 148 [1][2] - Analysts expect the yen to face downward pressure due to political uncertainty and concerns over Japan's fiscal policies, with potential fluctuations between 145 and 150 against the dollar [1][3][4] Group 2 - Prime Minister Kishida expressed his intention to continue governing despite the electoral setback, emphasizing the responsibility of the ruling party [2] - Market analysts noted that the political uncertainty could weaken investor confidence in Japanese assets, leading to potential declines in both the yen and the Nikkei index [3][4] - The upcoming US-Japan trade negotiations and the deadline for tariffs on August 1 are critical factors that could influence the yen's performance and Japan's economic outlook [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index has confirmed a breakthrough above 40,000 points, creating a favorable dual scenario of "index rise and increased volatility," with options market sentiment shifting to support further short-term gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 30, Nomura Securities reported that the Nikkei 225 index has significantly risen over several trading days, reaching a new high for the year by surpassing 40,000 points [1]. - Historical data from Nomura indicates that after a sharp rise in call option skew, the index has averaged a gain of over 3% in subsequent trading days since 2010 [5]. Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - The call option skew has sharply increased, rising above the 95th percentile historically, indicating a strong foundation for further increases in the Nikkei 225 index in the short term [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the current market structure and options flow provide strong technical support for the Japanese stock market, with a key resistance level at approximately 41,500 points [8]. Group 3: ETF Dividend Impact - Nomura expects that the upcoming ETF dividends, estimated at around 600 billion yen on July 8 and 900 billion yen on July 10, will not exert significant pressure on the market due to anticipated buying from CTA funds [9][10]. - The firm notes that investors are likely to remember last year's experience when ETF dividends did not catalyze selling pressure, and instead, the Nikkei 225 index reached new highs [9]. Group 4: CTA Fund Activity - Nomura estimates that CTA funds will net buy approximately 600 billion yen in Nikkei 225 index futures over the next four weeks, which could offset any selling pressure related to ETF dividends [10]. - The accumulation of long positions by CTA funds has been noted as a market-moving factor, particularly after the Nikkei 225 index surpassed 39,500 points [12].