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【UNFX本周总结】降息叠加购债入场 市场短线转向流动性与估值双驱动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-13 03:25
Group 1 - The core logic of the market this week revolves around three main directions: the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 25 basis points and the initiation of a large-scale short-term Treasury purchase program (RMP), which alters the short-term interest rate and liquidity supply landscape [1] - The U.S. data shows a divergence, with employment indicators weakening and some inflation metrics remaining elevated, leading to a re-evaluation of policy paths [1] - The geopolitical tensions and central banks' increased gold holdings provide dual support for the market [1] Group 2 - The decline in the dollar and short-term interest rates has provided significant support for gold, with prices testing and maintaining above $4,250, reaching close to $4,275 [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut and bond purchases create a backdrop of loose liquidity, but the technology sector's earnings and stock performance have led to mixed results in the Nasdaq, while the Dow and S&P have reached new highs supported by non-tech sectors [2] - The market is entering a phase of "liquidity + valuation" where short-term trading should focus on events and risk management [3] Group 3 - Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's bond purchase pace; if RMP maintains high-frequency operations, it will long-term alter short-term supply and demand dynamics [4] - The interest rate dot plot should take precedence over nominal rate cuts, with trading signals derived from the dot plot, Powell's statements, and committee preferences [4] - Gold should be accumulated based on event-driven strategies, with caution advised against blindly chasing prices above $4,250 [4]