一、今日金价全景：国际国内同步回调，实物金店价稳量缩 从技术指标看，黄金前期涨势已显疲态。尽管缺乏当日完整 RSI 数据，但 10 月 21 日市场分析显示，黄金 RSI 指标长期处于 70 以上超买区间，8 月以来的 连续上涨形成 "上升三角形破裂" 形态，技术面回调需求强烈。此前纽约金从 3800 美元涨至 4146.7 美元的过程中，未出现有效回调，此次下跌可视为对超 买状态的修正。 10 月 22 日黄金市场迎来显著回调，国际与国内品种价格同步走低。截至当日 8 时 28 分，国际市场上，纽约金期货价格报 4025.5 美元 / 盎司，较前一日下 跌 83.6 美元，跌幅达 2.03%，日内最低触及 4025 美元关口；伦敦金现报 4053 美元 / 盎司，下跌 39.52 美元，跌幅 0.97%，盘中波动区间达 89.8 美元。 国内市场方面，上海黄金交易所黄金 T D 品种暂未开盘，报价 944.47 元 / 克，较前收盘价下跌 44.98 元，跌幅 4.55%，早盘最低探至 935 元 / 克；上海期货 交易所沪金期货同步承压，报价 945.44 元 / 克，跌幅 4.64%，较前日高点 966 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, leading to fluctuations in silver prices, with industrial silver closing at 9.829 yuan per gram, up 3.11% [1] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to a steepening yield curve, reflecting a "hawkish rate cut" characteristic, influenced by robust economic data such as unemployment claims and Philadelphia Fed data [2] - The market is re-evaluating the yield path due to the lack of stronger dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, resulting in increased attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets [2] Group 2 - The latest TIC report shows a moderate net inflow of approximately $2 billion into U.S. securities, with notable sell-offs from China ($25 billion) and Japan ($26 billion), continuing a trend observed in recent years [2] - In contrast, the UK emerged as a significant buyer with $43 billion, alongside other foreign investors, excluding China and Japan, who collectively bought $54 billion [3] - Over the past 12 months, the average monthly foreign investment in U.S. securities was $61 billion, while domestic investment averaged $134 billion, indicating a stable support trend for U.S. securities [3]

Group 1 - The silver market experienced a significant drop after failing to break the $43 resistance level, but managed to rebound and recover some losses [1] - The short-term trading dynamics are influenced by the price being above the EMA50, providing support and positive momentum, particularly with encouraging signals from the relative strength index [1] - The U.S. Treasury market's movements have a profound impact on both the dollar and silver, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve influencing market dynamics [2] Group 2 - Recent TIC data shows a moderate net inflow of approximately $2 billion into U.S. securities, despite significant sell-offs by China and Japan, indicating a mixed sentiment among foreign investors [3] - The overall trend suggests that U.S. securities continue to receive reasonable support, which could provide potential backing for U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - Silver prices are currently in a bullish structure, with key resistance levels identified at $42.950 and $43.516, and potential upward movement if these levels are broken [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, which was seen as a victory for Trump after months of pressure [2][4] - Trump's expectation was for a larger cut of at least 50 basis points, as he had previously claimed that rates were at least 300 basis points too high [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicated that this rate cut was a "risk management" move and not a signal for extensive monetary easing, which contradicted Trump's desires [4][5] Group 2 - The voting results from the Federal Open Market Committee showed 11 members in favor of the 25 basis point cut, with only Trump's nominee voting against it, highlighting a lack of support for Trump's influence [5][7] - Market reactions post-announcement were mixed, with the Dow Jones rising slightly while the Nasdaq fell, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of the rate cut [7][9] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to consume a significant portion of the federal budget, raising concerns about long-term economic stability [9][14] Group 3 - The potential for a "debt spiral" is a concern, as increased borrowing to stimulate the economy could lead to higher interest payments, further straining the budget [12][14] - Inflation remains a persistent issue, with consumer prices rising due to tariffs, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to manage monetary policy effectively [12][14] - Projections indicate that by 2025, U.S. GDP growth may slow to 1.6%, with interest payments on the national debt reaching a historic high as a percentage of GDP [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain interest rates but unexpectedly announced the initiation of ETF sales, leading to a decline in Asian stock markets and halting the record global stock rally [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Actions - The Bank of Japan's announcement to start an ETF selling plan is reminiscent of the early 2000s when it disposed of stocks purchased from banks [2]. - Despite maintaining interest rates, the asset sale plan has put immediate pressure on the Japanese market, causing the Nikkei 225 index to lose all earlier gains [2]. - The two-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, indicating traders are pricing in a potential interest rate hike in October [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market saw Intel drop over 2%, while FedEx rose over 5% due to positive first-quarter earnings and future growth projections [4]. - European stock indices opened higher, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.24%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.03%, and France's CAC40 up 0.26% [4]. - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded from a low of 96.22 to 97.46, influenced by market interpretations of Federal Reserve policies [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased last week, reversing the previous week's increase, which supported the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.131% [4][7]. - The Indian rupee faced pressure, nearing historical lows, with a trading rate of 88.30 against the dollar [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new rate-cutting cycle by lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, which is expected to create new opportunities for Chinese assets in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Implications - The rate cut has triggered a global market response, with a consensus among fund companies that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well despite short-term volatility [1][6] - The market exhibited a "good news priced in" reaction following the rate cut announcement, with fluctuations in the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and stock indices [3] - Historical data suggests that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks typically perform well in the months following a Federal Reserve rate cut [7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund companies are optimistic about the long-term outlook for Chinese assets, citing improved liquidity conditions and potential for foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6][8] - Key investment directions identified include technology growth stocks, the Hong Kong market, consumer sectors, and gold assets, with a focus on sectors sensitive to interest rates and benefiting from global liquidity improvements [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, London gold and silver may enter an adjustment phase. The support for London gold is lowered to 3600, with strong support at 3500, and resistance at 3650 and 3700. The support for London silver is 41, with strong support at 40.5, and the upper resistance levels are 42, 43, and the 44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips, and those who hold previous long positions should hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices showed mixed performance. London spot gold slightly declined, while spot silver, platinum, and palladium slightly increased. The precious metal market is in a bullish vacuum period after the Fed's interest rate cut, and may enter a phased consolidation stage. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3678.2 per ounce, down 1.07%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $42.1 per ounce, down 0.12%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 826.82 yuan per gram, down 1.72%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9835 yuan per kilogram, down 1.94%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years, causing precious metals to fall. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 15.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 83.9%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 40.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 975.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 15.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.9 tons to 1203.5 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Data - Precious metal price data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts. Inventory data shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of relevant ETFs [5][16]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Other market data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [20].

Group 1 - The US dollar index continued to rebound, trading around 97.40 after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a "hawkish cut" characteristic as the yield curve steepened [1] - Following the Fed's rate cut, US Treasury yields rose significantly, with a notable increase in the short-term yields, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [1] - The dollar index initially dropped to a new low of 96.21 since February 2022 but reversed course after Powell's remarks, leading to a more than 1% increase and consecutive gains over two trading days [1] Group 2 - The dollar index (DXY) saw a substantial rise due to the increase in US Treasury yields, which reignited demand for the dollar [2] - The dollar index is approaching a critical resistance level, and if Treasury yields continue to rise without further weakness in labor data, the outlook for the dollar remains constructive [2] - A sustained breakthrough above 98.238 could signal a stronger upward trend for the dollar, especially with the Fed maintaining a cautious stance and persistent inflation data [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been labeled as hawkish by the market, but the real impact comes from the subtle changes in the voting dynamics [2] - Only the new member Stephen Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while previously dissenting hawkish members Waller and Bowman surprisingly voted in favor [2] - This shift in voting not only disrupts market expectations but also influences the betting odds for the next Fed chair, with Waller's odds dropping significantly and Miran's rising to the top [2] Group 2 - The support from Waller and Bowman alleviates fears that the Federal Reserve will be influenced by the White House, indicating that monetary policy decisions are guided by data rather than political pressures [3] - Their votes serve as a strong affirmation of the Fed's independence, demonstrating that there are decision-makers willing to bear reputational costs for making the right choices [3] - The 25 basis point cut is viewed as a technical adjustment, while the two supportive votes redefine the rules of the game, emphasizing that the Fed's authority is based on professional judgment rather than political fluctuations [3]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report indicates that precious metal prices are undergoing high - level adjustments after a hawkish interest rate cut. In the medium - to long - term, the trend may be bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver face significant adjustment pressure. The report maintains a strategy of buying on dips and advises cautious holding of existing long positions [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Wednesday saw significant intraday fluctuations in precious metal prices. London gold and silver closed with negative daily candlesticks, indicating short - term adjustment pressure. After the Fed's interest rate decision, although the market initially pushed up London gold prices, they quickly fell due to Powell's hawkish remarks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3694.6 per ounce, down 0.82%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $41.995 per ounce, down 2.15%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 837.64 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9933 yuan per kilogram, down 1.76% [2]. - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE, SGX, and CME gold and silver contracts, as well as the SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads and the CME gold - silver ratio [7]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.7%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 79.9%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 49.6%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 39.8% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons to 975.66 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.23 tons to 15189.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1221.4 tons, while SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons in the week ending September 12 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. US President Trump will conduct a state visit to the UK [4]. 4. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings [16]. 5. Other Market Data - The table presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].