Core Viewpoint - September is historically the most challenging month for the U.S. stock market, with increased volatility and a tendency for seasonal weakness [1][2] Group 1: Historical Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, with only 42.2% of years showing an increase [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also perform poorly in September, with average declines of 1.1% and 0.9% respectively [2] - Historical data shows that if the market is in an upward trend before September, the seasonal weakness may dissipate [2][3] Group 2: Recent Market Trends - The U.S. stock market had a strong performance in August, with the DJI rising 3.2%, marking its best August since 2020 [3] - The Russell 2000 index saw a significant increase of 7% in August, the best monthly performance in 25 years [3] - The S&P 500 was above its 200-day moving average, which historically correlates with a higher likelihood of positive performance in September [4][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Expectations - Key events influencing September's market include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding whether the rate cut will be dovish or hawkish is a significant factor for market direction [5] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has recently dropped, indicating a low volatility environment that may precede increased market fluctuations [5][6][7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis primarily focuses on the U.S. economy, particularly the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the financial markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Non-Farm Employment Data Adjustments**: The Q1 2025 QCEW calibration data will likely lead to downward revisions in non-farm employment numbers, similar to the 818,000 downward adjustment made in 2024, which ultimately revised to 589,000 [1][3] 2. **Upcoming Economic Data Releases**: Key economic indicators such as PPI, CPI, and retail sales data will be released in September, which are crucial for assessing inflation and predicting Q3 GDP performance [1][3] 3. **Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting**: The FOMC meeting on September 18 will be pivotal in determining interest rate decisions, with a focus on the divergence between actual values and expected medians [1][3] 4. **Market Volatility in August and September**: Historically, these months are characterized by high volatility and poor stock performance, necessitating caution regarding tightening dollar liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions [1][6] 5. **Uncertainty in Rate Cut Expectations**: Current uncertainties surrounding rate cut expectations are heightened due to poor quality and volatility in employment and inflation data [1][12] 6. **Potential Hawkish Rate Cuts**: If non-farm employment data underperforms while inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed may implement a symbolic rate cut while maintaining a tight overall financial environment [1][14][15] 7. **Impact of Political Dynamics**: The complexity of monetary policy is exacerbated by political pressures, which must be considered alongside economic fundamentals [2][24] 8. **Discrepancies in Fed Members' Views**: There are notable divisions among Fed members regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, influenced by political appointments and pressures [26] 9. **Globalization's Effect on Inflation**: The decoupling of supply chains due to trade wars may lead to slight upward pressure on inflation, contrasting with previous years when globalization helped suppress it [21][22] 10. **Challenges in the U.S. Labor Market**: The labor market faces challenges such as immigration issues and structural changes due to AI, which could influence future Fed policy decisions [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Market Performance**: The analysis highlights that August and September have historically been poor months for U.S. equities, often due to liquidity issues and financial conditions tightening [6][10] 2. **Market Reactions to Economic Data**: The market's response to economic data releases is critical, as deviations from expectations can significantly influence capital market trends [5][27] 3. **Cryptocurrency's Threat to Traditional Banking**: The rise of cryptocurrencies poses a potential threat to traditional banking systems, which could alter the landscape of financial intermediation [30][31] 4. **Commodity Market Dynamics**: The commodity market is experiencing mixed signals, particularly in oil, indicating potential volatility and investment opportunities [33]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting, with current market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September facing resistance from the Fed [2][4][12]. Economic Environment - Despite a 100 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate over the past year, the macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is more severe than a year ago, necessitating rate cuts to counteract a slowdown in economic growth expected after 2025 [4]. - The downward trend in hard economic data may continue, and Powell's stance at the Jackson Hole meeting will be crucial [4]. Employment Data - The significant downward revision in the July non-farm payroll report initially caused panic, but market focus shifted to the "proportion" of revisions rather than "absolute values," leading to a decrease in recession fears [5]. - Weakness in employment is attributed to a decline in labor supply trends and short-term noise, which limits the report's impact on the likelihood of a September rate cut [5]. Inflation Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows strength in services but weakness in goods, while a hotter Producer Price Index (PPI) has created some market disturbances without significantly suppressing the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9]. - Concerns about tariff-induced inflation in sensitive core goods are a primary worry for the market, although the increasing contribution of service inflation suggests a temporary positive outlook [9]. Fed's Rate Cut Outlook - The sentiment for a rate cut is bolstered by the expansion of potential candidates for the Fed Chair position, who are perceived as more dovish, indicating a more politically influenced Fed in the future [12]. - If Powell adopts a vague, hawkish tone at the Jackson Hole meeting, it may be a strategic move to counteract overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts [12][18]. Future Data Dependency - The decision for a September rate cut will heavily depend on the August non-farm payroll data, particularly the revisions and the unemployment rate's stability [14]. - Employment metrics are lagging indicators, and the deterioration in labor participation and employment rates suggests underlying weakness in the private sector [17].

海外经济：稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期收敛至2次（约50bp），降息终点预期抬升至3.5%。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速陡峭上行至4.6%，主要来自"抢进口"的逆转， 消费与投资动能亦在走强。其中个人消费（PCE）增速达到4.0%，商品（6.0%）与服务（3.2%）同步扩张； 私人投资（不含库存）增速达到4.4%，主要来自设备（8.8%）及知识产权（5.5%）分项的贡献。与此同时， 地产（1.8%）在高利率环境下意外转正，反映了美国地产补库存周期的内生动能。 就业市场依然稳健，失业水平保持低位。周频首次申领失业金人数上行至24.0万，符合季节性水平。基于当前 数据推测，5月失业率水平或位于4.1-4.3%区间，与前值基本持平。 市场对通胀的担忧亦在缓和。Truflation日频通胀指数降至1.84%，较前期高点回落26bp。 财政延续了"言语收缩，行为扩张"的基调。尽管一直在进行各种缩减赤字的表态及尝试，但实际上财政赤字仍 在扩张。周频财政赤字额达到$1,275亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于"双目标"及经济、财 ...

Group 1: Overseas Economy - The US economy is maintaining a steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations converging to two times (approximately 50 basis points) for the year [2][3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a 2.4% annualized growth rate for US real GDP in Q2, driven by personal consumption (PCE) growth of 3.6% and private investment growth of 2.7%, while real estate and construction are contracting due to high interest rates [2] - The job market remains robust, with initial jobless claims falling to 227,000, indicating a low unemployment level [2] - Inflation effects from tariffs are manageable, with a 2% increase in import prices noted, and inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in the second half of the year [2] - The "Beautiful Act" is progressing well, but the US fiscal deficit is significantly high, reaching $91.9 billion weekly, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2] Group 2: Overseas Strategy - Global market concerns have risen due to US debt rating downgrades and trade tensions, leading to increased US bond yields and a weaker dollar [4] - The S&P 500 index saw a 13% year-on-year EPS growth in Q1, exceeding market expectations, indicating resilience in US corporate earnings despite macroeconomic weaknesses [4] - The ongoing easing of inflation pressures provides the Federal Reserve with more policy maneuvering space, suggesting a potential new upward trend for US stocks [4] - Short-term US bond yields may face upward pressure, while a strategy focusing on medium to short-duration bonds is recommended [6] - The Chinese yuan may experience short-term pressure due to seasonal currency purchase demands, but overall stability is expected [6] Group 3: Chinese Economy - Domestic demand shows stability in car purchases, while real estate transactions are cooling, with new home sales in major cities declining by 5.7% year-on-year [7] - Export activities are accelerating as US importers rush to procure goods before tariff exemptions expire, with a 21.5% increase in container throughput at the Port of Los Angeles [7] - Fiscal revenue improved in April, with tax revenue growing by 1.9% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth this year [8] - Land transfer income also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, indicating a recovery in the real estate market, although pressures remain [8] Group 4: Chinese Strategy - The bond market is experiencing slight adjustments, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-duration bonds due to better risk-return profiles [11] - The A-share market is facing pressure from declining M1 and medium to long-term loan growth, indicating potential volatility [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is showing similar trends to the A-share market, with a focus on high-quality companies and stable dividend-paying stocks [12]

智通财经APP获悉，随着价格压力缓解和中美贸易紧张局势暂时缓和，澳洲联储有望年内第二次降息，尽管 澳洲联储委员会将对未来的政策路径保持谨慎。经济学家和货币市场预计，澳洲联储将于周二宣布降息25 个基点，将现金利率降至两年低点3.85%。澳洲联储主席Michele Bullock在利率决议公布一小时后与记者见 面时，可能不会暗示进一步降息。 渣打银行驻新加坡策略师Nicholas Chia表示："近期发生的事件提高了澳洲联储在5月会议上鹰派降息的可能 性，暂停降息则是一个尾部风险。"他指的是最近强于预期的价格和劳动力数据，以及中美之间为期90天的 贸易休战。 澳洲联储有望在5月降息 自澳洲联储3月31日至4月1日会议以来，数据显示通胀高于预期，薪资意外加速上涨，就业市场吃紧。JB Drax Honore首席亚太策略师Sean Keane表示，这表明澳洲联储"没有理由进一步刺激市场的降息预期"。他 指的是周二会议后市场预期澳洲联储将再降息两次。 澳洲联储还将在周二公布最新季度宏观经济预测，经济学家们预计通胀、GDP和就业增长预期将被下调。 澳洲联储不发布点阵图或预测利率走势，而是使用市场定价作为其经济前景的参考。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50% and is facing a decision-making dilemma between combating inflation and stabilizing employment, with potential for 1-3 rate cuts within the year totaling 25-75 basis points [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is currently in a solid expansion phase, with low unemployment rates and a robust job market [3][5]. - Inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Federal Reserve is committed to achieving maximum employment and restoring inflation to 2% [3][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% and will closely monitor economic indicators, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to determine future policy adjustments [3][5]. - The Fed is cautious about the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation, acknowledging that both unemployment and inflation risks have risen [5][6]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of buying long-duration U.S. Treasuries on dips and shorting the dollar on rallies [2][8]. - The market is currently neutral, with expectations for rate cuts being tempered, and the probability of a June rate cut has decreased to around 20% [7][8].

海外经济：美国仍具韧性 最新"硬数据"指向美国经济仍然保持相当韧性。 一是经济增长保持稳健。 Q1 GDP环比负增全部来自于进口增加，剔除库存、政府购买及进出口后的国内私人 部门年化增速仍然高达3.0%。从结构看，私人设备投资（22.5%）表现最为亮眼，且全部来自数据设备的贡 献，可能反映了"星际之门"项目的影响。 二是就业市场保持稳健。 4月美国新增非农就业人数17.7万，显著超出市场预期的13.8万，失业率稳定在 4.2%。 高频数据指向关税对美国经济的冲击开始发酵，但距离衰退仍有距离。亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测Q2美 国私人消费年化增速为1.9%，剔除库存后的私人投资年化增速大幅降至1.3%；首次申领失业金人数陡升至24.1 万，就业市场边际有所转冷。 前瞻地看， Q2美国经济可能大概率为温和转冷，市场衰退预期最终或"折半兑现"。美联储大概率于5月议息会 议按兵不动，并继续释放"通胀暂时论"与"衰退夸大论"信号。随着经济进一步转冷，美联储或于年中执行"鹰 派降息"，在进一步降低利率水平的基础上控制市场对未来降息的预期，并重申对通胀的高度关注态度。 海外策略：风险偏好回暖，离岸人民币升值 五一期间， ...