12月30日欧洲时段，12月29日全球贵金属市场突现"冰火两重天"极端行情：前一日尚在历史高位徘徊的 黄金骤然断崖式下跌，伦敦金现单日狂泻195美元/盎司，跌幅4.31%，最低触及4331.92美元/盎司，创年 内最大单日跌幅纪录。导火索为美国芝商所（CME）12月29日凌晨紧急上调贵金属期货保证金——黄 金上调10%、白银13.6%。现货黄金周一自4549.69美元/盎司历史高点回落，收跌4.4%；白银触83.94美 元/盎司新高后重挫8.9%。铂金、钯金亦遭重创，分别暴跌14%、近16%。 现货钯金：现货钯金素以波动剧烈著称，涨跌幅度甚至比白银更为凌厉。昨日钯金单日重挫逾400美 元，收出大阴线，空头一举扭转强势格局。原本的短期强支撑1650-1700美元已被击穿，若进入极限回 撤，不排除下探至1300美元区域的可能。当前短期支撑关注1500-1550美元，上方压力依次位于1750- 1730美元、1820-1850美元，以及近期新高1980美元附近。 技术分析 现货黄金：现货黄金经历暴跌后，短期顶部已基本确立。后续走势无非两种可能：一是延续惯性下挫， 二是出现极限反弹。若偏向激进，可参考关键支撑与阻力轻 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury has increased the issuance of short-term Treasury bills by approximately $328 billion to rebuild cash reserves since the debt ceiling was raised, which may lead to liquidity constraints in the financing market [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) cash balance is expected to rise from about $490 billion to $860 billion due to ongoing Treasury bill issuance and corporate tax payments, potentially causing bank reserves to fall below $3 trillion for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - The importance of bank reserves in assessing financing market conditions is increasing as the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool continues to decline, indicating a reduction in excess liquidity in the system [4] Group 2 - Market participants are closely monitoring the "minimum adequate reserve level," which will determine how much the Federal Reserve can reduce its balance sheet without impacting the overnight funding market [3] - The Federal Reserve's total reserve balance is currently around $3.33 trillion, providing a necessary buffer for the funding market, but changes are expected in the latter half of September [1][3] - Citigroup strategists predict that RRP usage may approach zero by the end of August, reflecting a significant decrease in excess reserves [4]