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浆纸产业观察系列(一):木浆涨价与减产并行,盈利改善需求仍强
Changjiang Securities· 2026-03-09 12:03
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the global market for wood pulp is experiencing price increases alongside production cuts, indicating a strong demand for profit improvement [2][4] - Recent price adjustments include a $20 per ton increase for hardwood pulp and a stable price for softwood pulp at $710 per ton [2][4] - Major suppliers like Suzano and Metsä have announced production cuts, with Metsä planning to suspend 690,000 tons of softwood pulp capacity by March 2026 [2][4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In March, the price of hardwood pulp rose by $20 per ton to $620 per ton, while softwood pulp prices remained stable at $710 per ton [2][9] - The price of hardwood pulp has increased from $500 per ton in July 2025 to $620 per ton in March 2026, marking a 24% increase [9] Production Adjustments - Metsä announced a temporary shutdown of its Joutseno softwood pulp mill, which accounts for approximately 2.5% of global softwood pulp capacity, effective March 31, 2026 [9] - Suzano and Bracell have also announced production cuts for hardwood pulp, with Suzano reducing output by about 3.5% [9] Demand and Profitability - Suzano's recent financial report indicates an increase in hardwood pulp sales and a slight improvement in profit margins, suggesting ongoing demand for profit enhancement [9] - The report anticipates that the lack of new production capacity and ongoing production cuts will lead to favorable supply-demand dynamics, potentially driving prices higher in 2026-2027 [9]